Half really, you do know Iron ore hit $151 last week up 9% for the quater. Currently sits at $148 a ton. I think you need to learn to count. Care to tell me what the price of Iron ore was when this boom or super cycle started, under $40 a ton.
Why are Iron Ore prices rising if as you claim demand is slowing in China? Perhaps you need to study economics and understand that over 8% GDP growth in China means it will need alot more Iron Ore this year and in future years then it did in 2011 and 2010 and earlier. The price of Iron Ore will remain high for along time, it will move with in a range but it certainly wont collapse.
Keep an eye on the US economy if it continues to pickup steam it will drag China and India higher further increasing demand. Commodities could well hit much higher prices.
When you look at the 110 year average of resources, most metals are still below the long term average and by a big margin. The only exceptions are Iron Ore, Copper and Gold. Most other metals have signifcantly higher prices in the 1970s or early 20th century.
What do you think will happen if the US grows at 4%, which pushes China back up to 10% growth, and India to 8%+, certainly possible as we move into 2013. What do you think will happen to commodity prices then.
Drag it higher one minute, crash it the next. Make your mind up Mike...
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Obama will be most upset if he loses to Romney, just when all his hard work starts to pay off, Romney wins and gets to enjoy the next 4 years, perhaps 8 of good economic growth. I hope Obama wins, I think his policies are much better for the long term health of the US economy and the world.
Is 3 years ago good enough
Quote:
Mike 2 Nov 2012, 12:04 PM
If consumer spending remains strong, and joins the housing recovery underway this will lead to a substantial improvement in the unemployment rate during 2013. This will in turn fuel further consumer spending and the housing market. Manufactoring is already doing its part, a rebound in business investment would be expect if consumer spending stays strong over the next few months and once the election is over.
All up who ever the new president is would be please with what they see, its not a boom but the next 4 years should see reasonable levels of economic expansion. This will provide the revenue to greatly improve the budget situation, cuts are still needed and reforms.
What could propel the US into a sustained economic boom is the energy situation. It is hard to calculate the figures, but so many large corporations are opening new factories in the US due to its much cheaper supply of energy. The US media has a phrase for it now "The home comming".
I have been saying it for some time, get ready for the US to return to economic dominance over everyone, including China. The US never losts it leads it is still double Chinas size. It will be much better for the world both economicly and for peace and stability for the US to be strong economicly as well as militarily.
Chinas economy I think will slow over the medium term, it has to so it can reform. This will be forced by the US taking back some of its lost manufactoring, but also nations like Vietnam, India, Indonessia and many others that offer cheaper labour and costs than China now does. This will help China transition to a more balanced economy away from exports and infrastructure. That can only be good for the world long term.
And some more.
Quote:
Mike 18 May 2013, 10:02 PM
US economy continues to build steam with 70% of US corporations beating projected earnings in the reporting season, this suggests share prices are still undervalued. This bull share market could have a fair way to run yet.
This looks very good for the next 6 months of job creation and GDP growth. Watch the unemployment rate drop over the rest of 2013.
So despite the Govternment cutting spending massively, lots of job cuts the private sector continues to expand at faster rates. This is what I talked about a few months back when some here said the Govt cuts would send the US back into recession. Not so, just as I said.
To top all of this off the US deficit for 2013 will be just 4% of GDP, down from over 7% in 2012. That is a massive reduction in the deficit, the cuts are helping, higher taxes and massive growth in tax reciepts which shows the economy is perhaps much stronger then most care to admit.
This data proves the US is on a borad based recovery which is gathering steam every day.
My honest opinion is the only a massive global event can derail the US economy now, not even congress with all its trouble making, Europes troubles have been able to halt the economy. Imagine if congress got out of the way and Europe actualy had some growth (Largest US trading partner).
Just a few of my many posts on the topic from years ago.
Shows how these bunch of Johnny come lately half wits know nothing. They are good at posting only part of a storey though and not the whole truth.
Mike, like usual, grabbing the headlines without looking deeper into the figures.
His past posts really prove he is a fuckwit.
This current one confirms it. The US is a basket case with 45million dependant on the government just for the food they eat every month. Now that china is selling up treasuries it will only be a matter of time before they go hungry. Either by a rapid one off hyperinflation or more likely an asset price collapse and deflationary depression. The latter being a given at some point anyway.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
I would hardly say your predictions for a strong US recovery are correct. And it certainly has not "gathered steam" since 2013.
2013 GDP growth 2.5% 2014 GDP growth was 2.5% Annualised 2015 GDP growth (so far) 2.15% Atlanta Fed GDP now not looking good for 3Q Durable goods no-where near as robust as the "cheerleaders" claim... Real-time Red Book retail sales look soft
It seems clear the US is not booming. Nor has the economy "rolled over". Neither the Bulls or the Bears were right. "Muddle through" has been the most accurate call.
I would hardly say your predictions for a strong US recovery are correct. And it certainly has not "gathered steam" since 2013.
It seems clear the US is not booming. Nor has the economy "rolled over". Neither the Bulls or the Bears were right. "Muddle through" has been the most accurate call.
I think you will find the winter quarters will all soon be revised as the data set is being updated to correctly model the seasonal influence of the harsh US winters which are far beyond the normal seasonal changes of decades past. Be interesting to see the results when they do it.
Care to post the unemployment rate in 2012/13 and now in 2015. Very strong result, not perfect but the US is close to full employment all though under employment is still an issue.
Hardly the doom and gloom for the US economy so many here forecast, the complete opposite in fact.
Hardly the doom and gloom for the US economy so many here forecast, the complete opposite in fact.
Meanwhile the USD is continuing to strengthen as people try to grab the cleanest dirty shirt from the basket.
How will exporters cope with their goods now being around 25% more expensive than a year ago?
Quote:
I think you will find the winter quarters will all soon be revised as the data set is being updated to correctly model the seasonal influence of the harsh US winters which are far beyond the normal seasonal changes of decades past. Be interesting to see the results when they do it.
. Actual growth rates can't be seasonally adjusted six months after the event. If one quarter is down and growth is deferred to the following quarter, you can't seasonally adjust one up without revising the other down.
Example: USA can't sell 10% of its goods in January because bad weather shuts the ports. But it sells 10% more goods in June as ports clear the backlog. You can't adjust January up by 10% for the seasonal effect without taking that 10% from June. Net gain/loss = zero.
The USA has grown by 2.15% (annualised) so far this year (not 3.7%).
Annualising a strong quarter in isolation to claim 3.7% growth is the stuff of CNN.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
I think you will find the winter quarters will all soon be revised as the data set is being updated to correctly model the seasonal influence of the harsh US winters which are far beyond the normal seasonal changes of decades past. Be interesting to see the results when they do it.
I believe the revisions for 2013, 2014 and 1Q2015 have been completed. The third (and final) 1Q 2015 estimate was reported on June 24 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm Any additional revisions are likely to "take" from earlier and later quarters, because if you only sell 100 widgets, it is still only 100 widgets irrespective of the changes in seasonal adjustments.
Quote:
Care to post the unemployment rate in 2012/13 and now in 2015. Very strong result, not perfect but the US is close to full employment all though under employment is still an issue.
You seem to be changing the topic. I thought it was about GDP. Ok. I guess we can at least agree GDP is not tanking, nor is it booming.
Employment growth has barely changed since the financial crisis. Not really "building up" steam. And slightly below pre-GFC levels. Which is pretty poor considering the job losses in 08-09. The unemployment rate has been assisted by falling participation rate. And no, it is not all retirees. Basically people giving up looking for work because the economy is not that great. The Fed knows this already which is why they have been so slow to move on interest rates. There is slack in the labour market which is why wage grow is still weak.
Quote:
Hardly the doom and gloom for the US economy so many here forecast, the complete opposite in fact.
No where near "the complete opposite". Its been better than Gloom but worse than Boom.
Mike has been doing this for ages. Makes bad predictions hidden in big wishy washy posts and then six months later claims he was right. He forgets that not all of us have Goldfish memories.
Mike is like a broken clock which is correct twice a day, but wrong for the other 1,438 minutes per day.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.
Just a few of my many posts on the topic from years ago.
Shows how these bunch of Johnny come lately half wits know nothing. They are good at posting only part of a storey though and not the whole truth.
US economic growth you say?
Mike-the-prophet
11 Dec 2012, 08:56 AM
The US is in my opinion entering a new golden age of sustained economic growth, to many reasons to list here. I will be a prophet and predict US economi growth from 2012-2017, perhaps as far as 2020. By 2014 it will be strong growth of 4%+.
Well done, only 50% wrong. That's pretty good for you. Usually you are 100% wrong.
Mike-the-prophet
25 Mar 2013, 01:34 AM
Watch US GDP growth over the rest of 2013 and into 2014, it will soon have a 3 in front of it and unemployment a 6 as the US economy moves up a gear. I can even see a scenario wheree the US economy has a 4 in front of GDP in the 2nd half og 2014.
Might need to get your glasses checked. 2013 - 2.2% 2014 - 2.4%
You understand that 2 is less than 3 right?
Mike-the-prophet
6 May 2013, 01:32 AM
Chinese growth will remain strong around the 7.5% range, perhaps as high as 8.5%.
Perhaps not.
Mike-the-prophet
10 Jun 2013, 10:57 AM
Exports account for 55% of WAs GDP.
Amazing that you know that fact without a single clue of the implications.
Mike-the-prophet
22 Jun 2013, 09:16 AM
Yes you are right. This is one big reason why QE is going to be wound back faster then expected. Watch US GDP growth into the 2nd half of 2013 and 1st half of 2014. I expect to see a modest expansion, perhaps as high as 4% in 2014.
Well, that didn't pan out. What a surprise.
Mike-the-prophet
22 Jun 2013, 09:16 AM
Of course you only need to read my blog post from 3 years ago
Mike-the-prophet
18 Jul 2013, 11:07 PM
I believe a few months ago I expected Iron Ore to go to $130 a ton due to restocking. I read an interesting article today, believe from the ABC, I will try and find it later. What it showed was China with its reduced GDP growth now at 7.5% in fact now has production much greater in monetary terms then it was in 2007/8. It had a lot of detail don`t have time now, but basically Chinas base demand for Iron Ore is much higher today due to the large growth in its economy in the last 5 years. So don`t be surprised if Iron Ore prices rise further. My view is like Pig Iron but I am a bit more bullish, I think a trade range between $130-140 will be the norm for the next few years perhaps even higher.
This was a surprisingly good prediction. On the time horizon you were only 75% wrong. I think you might be improving.
Mike-the-prophet
24 Dec 2013, 09:10 AM
It will not be long and we will be talking about US surplus budgets over the next few years, combine with strong GDP growth and hopefully some higher inflation around 3%
Still waiting for this one to pan out. Of course "not long" could mean 10 years in Mike-speak. Hard to read the words of the prophet sometimes.
Mike-the-prophet
3 Jan 2014, 09:03 AM
I certainly do see a return to 8-9% rates that we had just prior to the GFC, but certainly 6-7% is possible over the next 3 years. 2014 will be a good year to lock in rates for the next 5 years in my opinion, and I will certainly look to do so one a number of properties we intend to hold long term.
How did locking in those rates pan out for you? Or are you at least smart enough to not take your own advice?
Mike-the-prophet
5 Jun 2014, 12:49 AM
My predictions for rising rates by end of 2014 is looking pretty solid when combined with the strong employment growth in recent months. Together with strong GDP figures the RBA has little reason to keep rates at 2.5%.
That prediction was as solid as a Mike prediction can be. i.e. 100% wrong.
Mike-the-prophet
5 Jun 2014, 12:49 AM
Perhaps next time, the bears might listen to those that know better.
Those stupid bears!
Mike-the-prophet
31 Aug 2014, 01:04 AM
US GDP growth revised up to 4.2% in 2Q
Looks like you blew your wad on the Q2 inventory build last year also.
Mike-the-prophet
5 Jun 2014, 12:49 AM
What happens when rates actually rise? Gold will fall through $1000 quickly if it even holds this value in the lead up to the Fed meetings by early 2015. As rates continue to rise Gold will test $800 an ounce, but it could over shoot and fall much further at least for brief periods.
It's like mining an endless reserve of stupid.
Well, that's enough for one night. Still haven't finished my movie. Stay tuned for part 3!
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