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US economy powers to 3.7 percent growth rate in the second quarter
Topic Started: 31 Aug 2015, 10:33 PM (3,300 Views)
Mike
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http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/08/27/us-economy-surged-at-37-percent-rate-in-april-june-quarter

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy staged a far bigger rebound last quarter than first thought, outpacing the rest of the developed world and bolstering confidence that it will remain sturdy in coming months despite global headwinds.

The economy as measured by gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the April-June quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That's more than a percentage point greater than the initial 2.3 percent estimate and a sharp upgrade from the anemic 0.6 percent advance during the January-March quarter.

President Barack Obama took note of the good GDP report, saying it showed America remains "an anchor of global strength and stability" with an economic recovery that has been faster and stronger than most other nations.


"It's important to remember that strength. There's been a lot of reports in the news, stock markets swinging, worries about China and about Europe," Obama said during a tour of New Orleans to see rebuilding efforts since Hurricane Katrina 10 years ago.

To be sure, the GDP report provides a backward look at the U.S. economy. Since the spring, it has been hit with deepening concerns about a slowdown in China and recent turbulence in global financial markets. It remains unclear how the U.S. will fare in the months ahead if developments abroad deteriorate.

The robust second-quarter numbers, however, indicate a level of growth unmatched by the rest of the developed world and a solid footing heading into the second half of the year.

"The U.S. economy entered the current market turbulence with momentum, which will help it to shrug off the drag from China and other developing economies," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

In contrast, Japan — the world's No. 3 economy — shrank at an annual pace of 1.6 percent in the second quarter. Germany eked out 0.4 percent growth, while the United Kingdom expanded at a modest 0.7 percent rate. France didn't grow at all.

The U.S. economy will probably cool slightly in the third quarter, but economists still expect solid growth that should keep fueling jobs and spending.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, projects GDP growth of 2.5 percent in the current July-September quarter.

"The economy regained a massive amount of momentum in the second quarter and all the evidence from July's activity and employment data suggests that momentum continued into the third quarter," Ashworth said in a note to clients.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, is forecasting the economy to grow around 2.8 percent in third quarter and accelerate to a 3.5 percent annual rate in the October-December period. But he said that is based on an expectation that the recent market turbulence will not inflict long-lasting damage on the economy.

"My forecast rests on the assumption that this is a garden variety market correction, with stock prices dropping by 10 percent from their recent high," Zandi said. "If we get a bigger decline of 20 percent, then that will hurt consumption and housing, and we will not get the job growth we are expecting."

The revision for second-quarter growth was broad-based, reflecting more robust spending by consumers, businesses and government.

Consumer spending grew at annual rate of 3.1 percent, up from a 1.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter.

Business investment in structures and equipment was revised higher to show growth of 3.2 percent instead of a decline. Housing construction jumped 7.8 percent, up from an initial estimate of 6.6 percent growth. Businesses spent more to restock their store shelves as well.

Also fueling growth were strong gains in state and local government spending, largely due to greater public construction outlays.


Rising US interest rates here we come. Seem I was pretty close in my prediction of an accelerating US economy, despite some slow downs over the harsh winters. The trend is clear.

While China falters along with the other BRICs the US is resurgent and will remain the dominant economic and military power for along time to come.

I would be bailing out of gold about now if you are holding it hoping for it to rise in value. The gold value will get smashed, it may look something like the Chinese share market in 6 months to a year from now. The Aussie dollar will also take a beating, in 12 months from now I expect the Aussie dollar to be around 65 cents if not lower. So some offset there for some currency plays for Gold in $Aus but it wont be enough.
Edited by Mike, 31 Aug 2015, 10:35 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Terry
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Mike
31 Aug 2015, 10:33 PM
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/08/27/us-economy-surged-at-37-percent-rate-in-april-june-quarter




Rising US interest rates here we come. Seem I was pretty close in my prediction of an accelerating US economy, despite some slow downs over the harsh winters. The trend is clear.

While China falters along with the other BRICs the US is resurgent and will remain the dominant economic and military power for along time to come.

I would be bailing out of gold about now if you are holding it hoping for it to rise in value. The gold value will get smashed, it may look something like the Chinese share market in 6 months to a year from now. The Aussie dollar will also take a beating, in 12 months from now I expect the Aussie dollar to be around 65 cents if not lower. So some offset there for some currency plays for Gold in $Aus but it wont be enough.
Oh, so all of a sudden the suburbanites are flocking to praise America for its greatness. It wasn't that long ago when they would be pledging economic allegiance to the great communist wonder and ignoring America as a has been. Like a drag queen changing costumes during a show.

As for raising interest rates, you'd be better off down at the TAB as the volatility is much less. Furthermore, how the hell will it benefit you stuck in the suburbs? Shift whatever dollars you have into USD? I think you're a bit late on that play sunshine.
Edited by Terry, 1 Sep 2015, 12:04 AM.
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Mike
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Terry
1 Sep 2015, 12:03 AM
Oh, so all of a sudden the suburbanites are flocking to praise America for its greatness. It wasn't that long ago when they would be pledging economic allegiance to the great communist wonder and ignoring America as a has been. Like a drag queen changing costumes during a show.

As for raising interest rates, you'd be better off down at the TAB as the volatility is much less. Furthermore, how the hell will it benefit you stuck in the suburbs? Shift whatever dollars you have into USD? I think you're a bit late on that play sunshine.
I suggest you read some of my posts from a few years ago. I have long held the view that USA would recover, when most on these forums predicted continued decline and doom.

I much prefer a strong US economy to a strong Chinese economy. A strong Chinese economy in the end will lead to a complete reversal of the world order and the values we stand for. However China is a contradiction between Communist political system and capitalist economy and it is now learning the limits of its ability to control free markets which have benefited China's rise greatly. However the US economy has always been far more dynamic, innovative and adaptable then China will ever be. It is America's freedoms, individual rights and individuality which as a collective provide a far greater chance of long term successful and prosperity. Kevin Rudds famous speech in 2009 where he predicted the end of Western Capitalism after the GFC, I almost chocked when I read it, short sighted and a narrow view point.

US interest rates will rise, with this the Aussie dollar will head into the 60's and low 60's. In 12-18 months from now we could be looking at a dollar in the 50's. This will stoke inflation here in Australia along with a stronger growing economy due to the lower dollar. Interest rates in Australia will also rise as the RBA works to protect the currency falling further against the US dollar and the contain inflation. The economy will also being doing much better with the lower currency.

The property market will go through a period of stagnation as house prices in Australia moderate, perhaps fall as interest rates rise. Now I do not mean rates will jump 3-4%. 1-2% is clearly enough consider the debt loading.

In short the world is returning the normalcy of the past 70 years with the US at its centre, strong and rejuvenated. China will muddle through over the next 5-10 years but will need a huge amount of painful economic reforms. It may take China decades of reforms and during this time its economy will stagnate, much like Japan. The problem is can Chinas communist system handle stagnation, mass unemployment and so on. We shall see. Data coming out of China already suggest an economic growth rate much closer to the 2-3% range if not lower. We could soon see Chinas first recession, be interesting to see if the Communist Part would ever admit that China is in recession. If you think China is presently growing at 6-7% I got a bridge to sell you.

At present, just look at the strong US data and all the strong US indicators that go along with it. Yet with so many negative indicators in so many sectors of the Chinese economy they expect us to believe they are growing at 6-7%.

I recall a speech by the Chinese President last year in which he talked about how the Chinese economic-political model was superior to Western Democracy/Capitalism. Not looking so bright now, a bit of humble pie might be in order.
I will also mention this.

Obama when History judges him will go down as one of the best US presidents of the modern era. The US certainly needed it after Bush.

He has removed the US from two wars for the most part which drained trillions of dollars from the Government and thousands of deaths. It also distracted the Government as running two wars used a lot of political resources. The US has no ability to control events on the ground in the middle east by stationing 150,000 troops trying to hold together nations. In the end It only results in more enemies. What Obama is doing now against ISIS is the correct strategy, use local forces who know the population, terrain, culture and support them. Do not commit large ground forces to another endless war. The US can sustain and air war which only involves a few dozen US aircraft for as long as required and is the least costly option. Some may argue the US should do more to stop ISIS slaughtering the population, but how. Send in 10,000 troops, how do they know who the enemy is, where to find him. It would just result in more deaths and a pointless exercise.

Obama has isolated Russia and inflicted punishing sanctions which have helped to send the Russian economy into recession, along with US shale oil. Russia wont be much of a threat if it cannot afford to pay its for it large military modernization program....sounds like a similar economic policy of the former USSR.

China for the past 5 years has bullied and intimidated its neighbours with each aggressive action pushing more and more nations of Asia into the loving embrace of the USA. Each Island china makes in the south china sea just moves the nations of Asia solidly behind the US. So far this is the cheapest containment policy (oops did I say containment) the US has even done as China is making it easy. China has effectively created its own coalition against it by its own actions.

The world I see unfolding over the next few years is not one of chaos as it may have seemed. Russia is neutralised, (cannot even beat the ragtag Ukraine Army what is left of it) its economy in free fall. China is now experience is own GFC moment (maybe) and is politically isolated, example the US has 47 treaty allies while China has 1 (North Korea) and they are not so friendly precious.

ISIS is actually the greatest concern and that can be managed and is not an existential threat to the US, to some nations in the middle east yes.

So instead of the next US president inheriting an economy in complete free fall as Obama did in 2009 they will be greeted with the best US economy in 20 years if not more. A world which will increasingly look back to Washington to lead it and people around the world will bin those books predicting a Chinese century and demise of the US. Instead the world will rebalance to what it once was with the US head and shoulders above the rest. For good or bad this is what is unfolding.

My one fear is what does a communist government in China do if the economy collapses, how do you keep a population distracted. Blame the foreign devils, that has already started. Would the party start a small war to keep the population under control. Who knows, lets hope we don't find out.
Edited by Mike, 1 Sep 2015, 03:01 AM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Terry
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Mike
1 Sep 2015, 02:39 AM

In short the world is returning the normalcy of the past 70 years with the US at its centre, strong and rejuvenated.

Oh, 70 years. How ironic that time period aligns with the emergence of suburbia.
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Loki
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Mike
31 Aug 2015, 10:33 PM
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/08/27/us-economy-surged-at-37-percent-rate-in-april-june-quarter

Rising US interest rates here we come. Seem I was pretty close in my prediction of an accelerating US economy, despite some slow downs over the harsh winters. The trend is clear.

While China falters along with the other BRICs the US is resurgent and will remain the dominant economic and military power for along time to come.

I would be bailing out of gold about now if you are holding it hoping for it to rise in value. The gold value will get smashed, it may look something like the Chinese share market in 6 months to a year from now. The Aussie dollar will also take a beating, in 12 months from now I expect the Aussie dollar to be around 65 cents if not lower. So some offset there for some currency plays for Gold in $Aus but it wont be enough.
If the US economy is picking up, why are exports to the US from all of it's Asian trading partners in decline?

Japanese exports to the US are declining.

Chinese exports to the US are declining.

Korean exports to the US are declining.

Is this a recovery where nobody buys anything, or does the US manufacture everything domestically now?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Loki
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Mike
1 Sep 2015, 02:39 AM
I suggest you read some of my posts from a few years ago.
That is an excellent idea Mike-the-fuckwit.

Mike-the-fuckwit
21 Apr 2012, 01:52 AM
All indicators point to steady and sustained growth over the next 2-3 year peroid. My best guess will be 7-9% growth per year. Perth is now undervalued in comparision to other capital cities.
Hmmmm .... what was actual growth compared to your best guess .... looks like 4.41% per year.

Mike-the-fuckwit
23 Apr 2012, 05:30 AM
It might be time to remind people how much Iron Ore has increased since 2001. The current Iron Ore price is between 700-800% greater then in 2000. Chinese steel production reached new highs in the first 2 weeks of April on the back of increased construction demand in China. Cement production was up 7.9%, Electricity production was up 7.2%. Chinese stockpiles of Iron Ore are high at present but have begun to decline as demand picks up in China. Iron Ore prices are up 9% for the year to date reaching $151 a ton last week. Are we in a super cycle or is it a long term structual change as 1.3 billion urbanise changes world demand. Chinese domestic demand has increased greatly over the past 2-3 years, and they are certainly moving away from an export dominated economy. One of the biggest comming shifts in the global economy over the next 10 years is how do we supply enough resources and products to China. It is no co-incidence that as the same time Chinese consumer demand is increasing as a share of its economy and US exports have grown at an annual rate of 16% per year for the last 2 years. In time the world will supply China products, we are just at the very start of that cycle.
Sounds bullish to me.

Mike-the-fuckwit
23 Apr 2012, 03:30 AM
So I guess the 93 cities with a population larger then Sydney in China is a mythical dream. Most of the peasants the move due to work are housed by their employers in cheap dorms. The 200 million who have entered the middle class live in the city. It is stated Chines Govt policy to increase this number to 500 million by 2020. This still leaves 800 million peasants with the current population. So do some rough maths on the required resources to house another 300 million people, almost the population of the entire USA over the next 8 years. Then try to tell me resources prices are going to collapse. Once your done there start working on India and the rest of south east asia.
Just as you predicted, resource prices didn't collapse! Oh ... :(

Mike-the-fuckwit
24 Apr 2012, 05:27 AM
Half really, you do know Iron ore hit $151 last week up 9% for the quater. Currently sits at $148 a ton. I think you need to learn to count. Care to tell me what the price of Iron ore was when this boom or super cycle started, under $40 a ton. Why are Iron Ore prices rising if as you claim demand is slowing in China? Perhaps you need to study economics and understand that over 8% GDP growth in China means it will need alot more Iron Ore this year and in future years then it did in 2011 and 2010 and earlier. The price of Iron Ore will remain high for along time, it will move with in a range but it certainly wont collapse.
How long is "along time" for you? My guess: three and a half minutes.

Mike-the-fuckwit
27 Apr 2012, 06:30 AM
Really. I guess Apple got it wrong then when it decided to focus its future growth on China. Oh yes Apple profits just broke all kinds of records, due to massive demand from Chinas middle class for Iphones and Ipads. I guess your brighter then the Apple CEOs who just made $11.9 billion profit in a quater. China is in transition, it will be for the next few decades. China will move from an export producer to a net importer of products, not just resources. Much like the US today, as Chinas income rises its people will demand more. Chinas per capital incomes has gone from be 30-1 vs the US per capita income to be 10-1 today in just 10 years. The rest of the world will in the comming years produce far more and export it to China.
You really sound like a China in a Bull shop in this post. And now China is a dirty Communist regime that will collapse "just as you predicted" a few years ago. :lol

Mike-the-fuckwit
25 Aug 2012, 12:30 AM
Why would the RBA change rates when it has no control over the price of resources. The RBA will wait to see what effects if any declining resource prices have on Australia.
Pure Mike genius this one.

Mike-the-fuckwit
2 Dec 2012, 05:05 AM
If I can I will sell property to Chinese buyers for a nice high price and pocket the money. In fact buyers to a house I am selling which settles next month appear to be Chinese by name, of course I have no idea if they are citizens or not and I dont really care. You got the money, you get the sale. Where the money comes from is no concern of mine.
Lot less yellow peril in your posts back then. What happened to the Chinese destroying our values? You got the money, you get the sale? Why aren't your values for sale?

Mike-the-fuckwit
2 Dec 2012, 10:17 AM
If China continues to see growth increase in 2013 and the US continues to build steam in 2013 this will light a fire under Perth housing. All those mining jobs will be safe, expansion will continue and confidence will be sky high. The only negative for Perth is if China fell in a hole which is looking like a very remote chance.
Whoa, whoa, whoa! What happened to your prediction of a very remote chance?

Mike-the-fuckwit
18 May 2012, 08:58 AM
Iron Ore prices will be higher. China has alot of room for monetary and fiscal policy to stimulate its economy. Its interest rates are high, reserve requirements have been restrictive. You keep forgeting the slowdown in China has been engineered by the Govt to slow inflation which was getting out of control. Now that inflation is under control they can release the flood gates and allow cheap money to flood there economy again. As a capitalist/state controlled economy decisions by Chinas Govt have far reaching effects and flow through at much faster rates then western democracies. When the Chinese Govt says to do something "jump", everyone else including the banks say "how high". Like during the GFC China can pump money into its economy, like last time resource prices boomed during the worst economic down turn in the western world in 80 years. If the situation in greece gets worse and they leave the Euro, markets could panick which would force China to stimulate its economy similar to the GFC. This will have a massive impact on Iron Ore prices let alone most other commodity prices. Does that answer your question. Where do you think Iron Ore prices will be, $125, $110, $100. Keep in mind even at $100 a ton Iron Ore is still up 250% from the spot prices prior to the boom in Iron Ore prices in 2003.
Looks like your predictive powers are pretty reliable. Whatever you predict, the opposite happens.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/iron_ore_spot_price_any_origin

This is a lot of fun, but I want to finish a movie. Stay tuned for part 2!


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Terry
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Loki
1 Sep 2015, 10:07 PM
That is an excellent idea Mike-the-fuckwit.


Hmmmm .... what was actual growth compared to your best guess .... looks like 4.41% per year.


Sounds bullish to me.


Just as you predicted, resource prices didn't collapse! Oh ... :(


How long is "along time" for you? My guess: three and a half minutes.


You really sound like a China in a Bull shop in this post. And now China is a dirty Communist regime that will collapse "just as you predicted" a few years ago. :lol


Pure Mike genius this one.


Lot less yellow peril in your posts back then. What happened to the Chinese destroying our values? You got the money, you get the sale? Why aren't your values for sale?


Whoa, whoa, whoa! What happened to your prediction of a very remote chance?


Looks like your predictive powers are pretty reliable. Whatever you predict, the opposite happens.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/iron_ore_spot_price_any_origin

This is a lot of fun, but I want to finish a movie. Stay tuned for part 2!
I guess my analogy of the drag queen changing costumes was on the money.
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Gossamer
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44th most prolific poster on APF

Mike, like usual, grabbing the headlines without looking deeper into the figures.

His past posts really prove he is a fuckwit.
Edited by Gossamer, 1 Sep 2015, 10:24 PM.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

APF idiot list
Nelson
Black Panther
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Loki
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Gossamer
1 Sep 2015, 10:24 PM
Mike, like usual, grabbing the headlines without looking deeper into the figures.

His past posts really prove he is a fuckwit.
The funniest part is how he grabs a headline and then goes on to say he has been predicting this for years! And then 6 months later he is taking the opposite position, predicting that outcome for years also.

Hard to tell if it is a type of mental illness (stress caused by cognitive dissonance between reality and the belief system) or if he is just lying/trolling. He seems sincere in his idiocy, so it is probably the former rather than the latter.

Terry
1 Sep 2015, 10:14 PM
I guess my analogy of the drag queen changing costumes was on the money.
Bang on! :tu:
Edited by Loki, 1 Sep 2015, 11:00 PM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Jimbo
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Loki
1 Sep 2015, 10:59 PM
The funniest part is how he grabs a headline and then goes on to say he has been predicting this for years! And then 6 months later he is taking the opposite position, predicting that outcome for years also.
Mike has been doing this for ages. Makes bad predictions hidden in big wishy washy posts and then six months later claims he was right. He forgets that not all of us have Goldfish memories.

Well done for digging out the old predictions, I have done this to him myself in the past. It is tiresome but worth the effort all the same.

He might go away for a while to sulk, but he will be back.

He will leave his socks behind though.
Edited by Jimbo, 2 Sep 2015, 04:37 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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