ABC reporter Stephen McDonnell has been in China for almost a decade and is fluent in mandarin. I have watched many contentious reports made by him from the mainland about workers rights, ore and steel stock piling and corruption in general.
He seems to be quite in depth and scathing when he sees blatant flaws in the post communism regime. I don't know that much about the bloke but he comes across as pretty black and white.
He did a recent report where he went to the manufacturing heartland to see what the go was with the stock market and the economy in general. He travelled through a few Provences and spoke to factory workers and owners. They all admit to a slow down but he also mentioned that most were quite positive about the future thinking that the economy will bop along rather than sprint flat out continuously.
It is with a pinch of salt given the environment he is working in (no doubt had a minder close by at all times directing them where to go who to see etc) but he seemed to think after a few days travelling around that what he saw reflected what the workers told him. The general consensus was that there was no way of a crash in the real economy, there would be a slow down to a sustainable pace but no Armageddon.
He's a good reporter and it's just food for thought.
Michael Schuman is an American author and journalist who specializes in global economics as well as Asian politics and history. He is currently based in China. He has been a correspondent for TIME Magazine and The Wall Street Journal. Schuman has won an Overseas Press Club award as part of the newspaper’s team coverage of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
As you can see, he's so deep into the doomer mindset, he's been doing it since the Asian financial crisis. Please ignore his doomer article and go with your ABC reporter's Stephen McDonnell findings.
What exactly does doom mean in this context anyway?
As far as I see it China is in the middle of trying to avoid the middle income trap by diversifying their economy to support domestic innovation and consumption.
Popping asset bubbles and debt problems are likely to be short term issues if they're dealt with correctly.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
100 million earning 2 dollars a day for food and bed space suddenly lose jobs.
100 million cannot buy food or rent.
100 million go back to working on farms back in home province.
Land and river already polluted. Cannot eat must die.
Doom.
Oh is that all? I thought you were talking about Armageddon or something.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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