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Exclude homes as speculative assets.
Topic Started: 29 Aug 2015, 10:57 AM (3,227 Views)
Veritas
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Strindberg
29 Aug 2015, 08:11 PM
That statement was made by Peter Martin, the article author, not Pauk.

As such it reveals either Peter Martin's financial illiteracy or more likely Peter Martin's lying intent to deceive his target doomer readers.

Martin's use of the word "leaving" is a deliberate attempt to imply that there exists only a fixed amount of credit available for house purchase and that all investors have first call on that credit over all owner occupiers. Both insinuations are complete bollocks. The days of building society structures where credit was limited to deposits disappeared eons ago. There exists absolutely no restriction of available credit for credit worthy owner occupiers in the modern world.
Australian banks have become as a matter of policy glorified mortgage lenders.

In this regard, Australian banks are world beaters.

Why do you think Australian banks have book that are two thirds mortgages and one third everything else?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Trollie
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Loki
29 Aug 2015, 06:17 PM
Thanks for letting us know your understanding of banking is the same as your understanding of everything else. Sweet fuck all.
Actually, I'm 100% correct, so it shows YOU are the one that knows Sweet Fuck All.
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ThePauk
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stubby
29 Aug 2015, 06:19 PM


Just can't resist the opportunity to social-engineer, can you pauk? That's why you'll always be a "cross-bencher", mostly left on the sidelines in life's great political debates.

:lol :lol :lol
I do ok, but thanks for your concern.
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peter fraser
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Veritas
29 Aug 2015, 08:26 PM
Why do you think Australian banks have book that are two thirds mortgages and one third everything else?
Mainly because the majority of business lending is done as a residential home loan where residential security is used.

If you added that back onto the business lending data it would largely correct. It's easier to get a business loan now that it used to be before financial deregulation. Lets hope that APRA don't stuff it up.
Edited by peter fraser, 29 Aug 2015, 09:17 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Veritas
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peter fraser
29 Aug 2015, 09:09 PM
Mainly because business lending is done as a residential home loan where residential security is used.

If you added that back onto the business lending data it would largely correct. It's easier to get a business loan now that it used to be before financial deregulation. Lets hope that APRA don't stuff it up.
So Australia does "business loans" differently, creating the illusion that they are glorified mortgage lenders.

Any links?

Posted Image
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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peter fraser
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Veritas
29 Aug 2015, 09:17 PM
So Australia does "business loans" differently, creating the illusion that they are glorified mortgage lenders.

Any links?
Sure, here you go.

LINK HERE.....
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Veritas
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peter fraser
29 Aug 2015, 09:21 PM
Sure, here you go.

LINK HERE.....
Eh...so just your say so then.

Peter, Australian banks are mortgage lenders. Its what they do. Almost two/thirds of all loans they write.

You are saying that some of these are in fact business loans.

But you cant back that statement up at all.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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peter fraser
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Veritas
29 Aug 2015, 09:30 PM
Eh...so just your say so then.

Peter, Australian banks are mortgage lenders. Its what they do. Almost two/thirds of all loans they write.

You are saying that some of these are in fact business loans.

But you cant back that statement up at all.
Mate I back it up everyday in my work.
The fact that you don't have access to the real data doesn't mean that it isn't so.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Veritas
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peter fraser
29 Aug 2015, 10:18 PM
Mate I back it up everyday in my work.
The fact that you don't have access to the real data doesn't mean that it isn't so.
The IMF says you are full of shit.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rastus2
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Strindberg
29 Aug 2015, 08:11 PM
That statement was made by Peter Martin, the article author, not Pauk.

As such it reveals either Peter Martin's financial illiteracy or more likely Peter Martin's lying intent to deceive his target doomer readers.

Martin's use of the word "leaving" is a deliberate attempt to imply that there exists only a fixed amount of credit available for house purchase and that all investors have first call on that credit over all owner occupiers. Both insinuations are complete bollocks. The days of building society structures where credit was limited to deposits disappeared eons ago. There exists absolutely no restriction of available credit for credit worthy owner occupiers in the modern world.
Well your claim is equally deceptive and bollocks.
Quote:
 

There exists absolutely no restriction of available credit for credit worthy owner occupiers in the modern world.



As you would well know, the concept of credit worthy shifts, there were many Americans who could suddenly not get loans post gfc because the lenders tightened their concept of credit worthy.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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