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Who Benefits from High House Prices?
Topic Started: 24 Aug 2015, 06:52 PM (6,600 Views)
herbie
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Rastus2
26 Aug 2015, 08:11 PM
... you're is not the same as your ...

I don't normally play this game. But what the hell, whatever:

When you're in a hole of your own making stop digging?

Edited by herbie, 26 Aug 2015, 08:30 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Rastus2
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goneaway
26 Aug 2015, 08:28 PM
I don't normally play this game. But what the hell, whatever:

When you're in a hole of your own making stop digging?
Can you explain what you meant by that post however ? Its still a mystery, especially the 'sick' comment...
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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herbie
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Rastus2
26 Aug 2015, 08:35 PM
Can you explain what you meant by that post however ? Its still a mystery, especially the 'sick' comment...
I didn't make the 'sick' comment.

Review the post for clarification. And you will see that was so.

PS: Glad you seem to be getting the "you're" and "your" thing sorted. (At least to the point where you've dropped pushing it anyway.)

Edited by herbie, 26 Aug 2015, 08:42 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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August
Unregistered

ABS Census Data

Number of dwellings 1991 = 5,852,246
Number of dwellings 2011 = 9,117,033

Number of adults 1991 = 12,711,312
Number of adults 2011 = 17,245,436

Adults per dwelling 1991 = 2.17
Adults per dwelling 2011 = 1.89

The number of adults in each home has dropped 15%. I believe this is because adult children are increasingly leaving their parent's homes to establish new households for themselves, which suggests an improvement in affordability overall.
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Rastus2
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goneaway
26 Aug 2015, 08:41 PM
I didn't make the 'sick' comment.

Review the post for clarification. And you will see that was so.

PS: Glad you seem to be getting the "you're" and "your" thing sorted. (At least to the point where you've dropped pushing it anyway.)
Ok, wrong person.


Apologies for typos as they obviously bother you... and pointing out yours... jist thought it was funny to be lectured by someone while he made his own mistakes end enjoyed pointing out the irony.
August
26 Aug 2015, 09:02 PM
ABS Census Data

Number of dwellings 1991 = 5,852,246
Number of dwellings 2011 = 9,117,033

Number of adults 1991 = 12,711,312
Number of adults 2011 = 17,245,436

Adults per dwelling 1991 = 2.17
Adults per dwelling 2011 = 1.89

The number of adults in each home has dropped 15%. I believe this is because adult children are increasingly leaving their parent's homes to establish new households for themselves, which suggests an improvement in affordability overall.
You are assuming they are buying, not renting...


I dont see conclusive evidence that these people are buyjng property when they move out of their parent's home.
Edited by Rastus2, 26 Aug 2015, 09:14 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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herbie
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Rastus2
26 Aug 2015, 09:09 PM
Ok, wrong person.


Apologies for typos as they obviously bother you... and pointing out yours... jist thought it was funny to be lectured by someone while he made his own mistakes end enjoyed pointing out the irony.
Mistakes? I surely do make them.

But not that time.

As I said: When you're (abbreviation for "you are") in a hole of your (denoting ownership/possession by you) own making stop digging.

August
26 Aug 2015, 09:02 PM
ABS Census Data

Number of dwellings 1991 = 5,852,246
Number of dwellings 2011 = 9,117,033

Number of adults 1991 = 12,711,312
Number of adults 2011 = 17,245,436

Adults per dwelling 1991 = 2.17
Adults per dwelling 2011 = 1.89

The number of adults in each home has dropped 15%. I believe this is because adult children are increasingly leaving their parent's homes to establish new households for themselves, which suggests an improvement in affordability overall.
LOL - Bloody shit stirrer! :D
Edited by herbie, 26 Aug 2015, 09:18 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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August
Unregistered

Rastus2
26 Aug 2015, 09:09 PM
You are assuming they are buying, not renting...

I dont see conclusive evidence that these people are buyjng property when they move out of their parent's home.
No assumptions. They're forming new households, and those could be renting households or owning households. But either way, they're able to afford to move out of the parent's home, and the parents they leave behind are obviously able to afford their own homes too without the extra income from their adult children who have moved out. It seems like in the past there were a lot more adult children still at living at home contributing to the household income, but now because of improved affordability they can afford to move out earlier.
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herbie
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August
26 Aug 2015, 09:38 PM
No assumptions. They're forming new households, and those could be renting households or owning households. But either way, they're able to afford to move out of the parent's home, and the parents they leave behind are obviously able to afford their own homes too without the extra income from their adult children who have moved out. It seems like in the past there were a lot more adult children still at living at home contributing to the household income, but now because of improved affordability they can afford to move out earlier.
There's so many holes in that hypothesis that there's simply no even half self respecting bull on this forum I can think of who'd pick it up and attempt to run with it.

Which is why I don't even call bull sock - Just a shite stirrer ... :)

Anyway, I've got to go and do some calcs on the overall lineal meters of 70 x 35 MGP12 roof battens I need on my current project.

So toodle pip 'n good luck with your hypothesising ...
Edited by herbie, 26 Aug 2015, 10:04 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Guest
Unregistered

August
26 Aug 2015, 09:38 PM
No assumptions. They're forming new households, and those could be renting households or owning households. But either way, they're able to afford to move out of the parent's home, and the parents they leave behind are obviously able to afford their own homes too without the extra income from their adult children who have moved out. It seems like in the past there were a lot more adult children still at living at home contributing to the household income, but now because of improved affordability they can afford to move out earlier.
More like the exact opposite of what your saying. In the old days people moved out early, because they could afford too, they had kids early because they could afford to and bought houses younger because it was more affordable.

These days more and more are living at home, these are the facts. More and more these days are not moving out because they cannot afford to. Jobs arendissapearing, wages are stagnating and falling for some. They are buying investment properties and living at home with mum and dad and hoping somebody else can pay it off. Investors are the first to bail, and these days they have flooded the market and so has the amount of rental property as a result.

I thought your stats were interesting. And have often wondered about these.

While we can see the stats up to 1991 show us that adults per dwelling was 2.17, what it does not show us is the ratio since then. Since 1991, it shows that population had increased by around 4.4 million people, and dwellings had increased by around 3.3 million. So the ratio since 1991, shows adults per dwelling has been 1.33. Almost a dwelling per person. With record building now going on, it now appears we are building more units in Sydney and Melbourne alone than the adult population is actually increasing.

You only need to look in the sqm link at the top of the page. Look at rental vacancy rates for each capital city. If you look at the current numbers for each and then scroll the graph all the way to the left, you will see the eye opening reality.

Thanks again for stats. Very interesting.
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Chris
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August
26 Aug 2015, 09:02 PM
ABS Census Data

Number of dwellings 1991 = 5,852,246
Number of dwellings 2011 = 9,117,033

Number of adults 1991 = 12,711,312
Number of adults 2011 = 17,245,436

Adults per dwelling 1991 = 2.17
Adults per dwelling 2011 = 1.89

The number of adults in each home has dropped 15%. I believe this is because adult children are increasingly leaving their parent's homes to establish new households for themselves, which suggests an improvement in affordability overall.
Or that because of cost of living people are having less children, what do you think?

You and the grey man must go to the same school of deception!
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