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Who Benefits from High House Prices?
Topic Started: 24 Aug 2015, 06:52 PM (6,604 Views)
Chris
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Shadow
26 Aug 2015, 09:47 AM
My argument is that house prices have broadly tracked income growth since 2003. I haven't made any argument about Gen-Y specifically.
Yes but it is your arguement and given the debate is centred around generational divide wouldn't it be almost essential for you to prove yourself given your claims that overall no one is any worse off with incomes vs house prices. I believe you have stated at nausea that it is no more expensive today to buy a home than it was in 2003, are you now going to premise this with a 'I mean for baby boomers' type clause.

Very deceptive if that's the route you're going grey man, very deceptive.
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Shadow
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Chris
26 Aug 2015, 10:34 AM
Yes but it is your arguement and given the debate is centred around generational divide wouldn't it be almost essential for you to prove yourself given your claims that overall no one is any worse off with incomes vs house prices.
I haven't made that claim.

Quote:
 
I believe you have stated at nausea that it is no more expensive today to buy a home than it was in 2003
I have never stated that.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Chris
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Shadow
26 Aug 2015, 10:49 AM
I haven't made that claim.


I have never stated that.
I'll have to go back and read over some of your more 'detailed' posts on the matter. I may have misinterpreted what you have stated in the past or maybe, like I've alluded to, you were very selective in your language in order to deflect or stifle debate with superfluous generalised data dressed up as the truth.

I think our conversation here is going to be of great interest to a few hardliners in here. It may actually put a sizeable hole in your stance?? We'll see
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Trojan
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Shadow
26 Aug 2015, 07:27 AM
Not just wages. Total income, including non-wages income like share dividends, interest on savings, other investments etc...
Posted Image
This is a very significant point lost on many here.

How many times have we had a poster here who said they rent but have come out financially ahead by putting their money in shares/bonds/futures/commodities/forex/etc
As total income grows, then the ability of households to pay higher prices continue to rise.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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ThePauk
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Shads, you got kids?

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Posted Image
http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/inquiry-into-home-ownership/home-ownership-rates.html

"Home ownership
Home ownership is the most common and most desired form of housing in Australia. The 2011 ABS Census recorded that 67 per cent of Australian households are owner occupiers. The number of households who own their home outright has fallen since 1996 (Census of Population and Housing 2015.0 1996) from 40.9 per cent to 32.1 per cent, while the number of households who own their home with a mortgage has increased from 25.5 per cent to 34.9 per cent (ABS 2011 Census QuickStats).
- See more at: http://www.ahuri.edu.au/themes/home_ownership#sthash.bbAoHo1n.dpuf

"Across all age groups, the aggregate proportion of all Australians who own their own home contracted from 71.2 per cent in 1996 to 66.9 per cent in 2011, according to the most recent ABS figures available.
More worryingly, home ownership rates amongst the 25-to-34 year old age group have slumped from 52.2 per cent to just 42 per cent over the same period, a decline of 10.2 per cent. Outright home ownership (home ownership without a mortgage), which stood at 11.1 per cent in 1996, is now a reality for less than two per cent of this age group."
https://sourceable.net/home-ownership-down-over-10-percent-for-young-adults-in-20-years/#

"The current parliamentary inquiry into home ownership is in the midst of public hearings, questioning, among other things, the decline in home ownership among younger Australians.
This, however, is not a recent issue. For a long time young people have found it difficult to purchase their first home. Home ownership rates for households aged 25-34 began to decline close to 40 years ago; declines for those aged 35-44 followed a decade later.
Declines have been most dramatic among low to moderate income households; only younger households in the top quintile of the household income distribution have been (relatively) protected.
A 40-year problem
These declines date back to social, demographic and economic changes that began up to 40 years ago. Social change in the 1970s saw the number of both single adult and dual income households increase. This resulted in increasing disparities in household incomes. The increasing numbers of high income households increased housing demand and triggered pressures on the housing market that began to squeeze out lower income households.
These pressures have been maintained by ongoing household income inequality, which has been increasing in Australia since the mid-1980s, compounded by growing earnings inequality and the impacts of uneven economic growth."
https://theconversation.com/explainer-whats-really-keeping-young-and-first-home-buyers-out-of-the-housing-market-45716
Edited by ThePauk, 26 Aug 2015, 11:11 AM.
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Shadow
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Chris
26 Aug 2015, 11:00 AM
I may have misinterpreted what you have stated in the past
Probably.

My position is pretty clear.

Australia's house price to income ratio hasn't changed much for over a decade, and is currently still close to its 2003 level (slightly above, but not by much).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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hullaballoo
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Yikes! The decline in home ownership is dramatic!
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ThePauk
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This is what drove prices up...doh!
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Shads, please show us again Price to Single wage long term Sydney?
Edited by ThePauk, 26 Aug 2015, 11:19 AM.
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Shadow
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ThePauk
26 Aug 2015, 11:04 AM
Shads, you got kids?
I expect they'll want to do what most young people are doing these days... staying in education for longer, traveling around the world after college, getting married and having kids much later in life - that will mean they also delay home ownership until later, when they settle down. The days where most people got married and settled down in their 20s with kids and a house are long gone. And their much longer life expectancy means current and future generations can delay these things for longer and still end up spending just as much time (if not more) as homeowners after they do get around to settling down.
Edited by Shadow, 26 Aug 2015, 11:17 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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ThePauk
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Shadow
26 Aug 2015, 11:16 AM
I expect they'll want to do what most young people are doing these days... staying in education for longer, traveling around the world after college, getting married and having kids much later in life - that will mean they also delay home ownership until later, when they settle down. The days where most people got married and settled down in their 20s with kids and a house are long gone. And their much longer life expectancy means current and future generations can delay these things for longer and still end up spending just as much time (if not more) as homeowners after they do get around to settling down.
So, do you have kids?
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