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Perth $30K FHB promotion; Why so desperate?
Topic Started: 19 Aug 2015, 12:54 AM (8,999 Views)
Terry
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Matthew
20 Aug 2015, 08:55 PM


In the year to December 2010 we built 24,830 houses (5.5% above the recent average)

In the year to December 2011 we built 19,720 houses. That is 16.2% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $489,000 - $6,000 the year prior

In the year to December 2012 we built 20,110 houses. That is 14.5% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $515,000 - $26k above the year prior

By December 2013, thanks to the 8,000 dwelling shortfall in the two years prior prices had risen to $566,000 - up $77k over the three years.

Now, thanks largely to the change in FHB people have rushed to build since the May 2014 budget, something your hero Jimbo said would cause a 25% crash in established dwelling prices by November 2014 (how did that end Jimbo?).

And now we have forgotten to learn from our past lessons and will build SFA houses in the coming 18 months.

So how will that end Chris? How will a massive shortfall in construction assist your price crash desires when the population is still growing?

Get it? See what is coming? Interest rates will remain low, demand will exceed supply again and prices will spike.

The crash just isn't coming. Yes there is a current over supply, yes that should see prices fall. But not crash. Because for them to crash there needs to be a sustained oversupply in houses. And there isn't one.

Do you understand?

Now if you want to make a counterpoint go nuts and tell us how 50 land sales a week will create an oversupply in property when we average 2000, or shut your fucking mouth and just nod in agreement with what is just basic economics not to mention common fucking sense.

I really don't care enough to read 3,000 bullshit posts to find a simple answer to a simple question.

At least you have a goal. Just hope there are jobs in the SW for someone loaded up with multiple degrees.

Good luck to you. Just don't be bitter when a price crash isn't part of the equation.
OK, build a simple linear regression model and prove it. You've got the dependent variable and the supposed drivers. Prove it....statistically. Back yourself.
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Chris
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Matthew
20 Aug 2015, 10:10 PM
If you can not understand the impacts of an undersupply in new completed construction to overall property prices you are beyond help.

If you can not understand that builders can offer a $30,000 carrot without costing themselves any profit through supply chain management you are beyond help.

the only thing that is plain to see here is that you are beyond help.

That dead horse is not getting any deader Matthew.

Let's go over it again shall we. The governing body for real estate agents, the advocacy group no less, the REIWA state that population DECLINES are having a significant impact on new starts. You are almost brain dead but I'm sure you know what that means, there is no under supply or hint of one they are not building new homes because there isn't the market for them.

What you are trying to assert is that there is an emerging under supply because starts have declined, how do you figure that moron. And then with the same logic explain to me why anyone would ever offer $30k inducements for what is a market that is in in under supply? You are lost in your own rhetoric.

Have the last word though, I know without a Shadow of a doubt that you can't help yourself.
Edited by Chris, 20 Aug 2015, 10:41 PM.
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Blondie girl
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Perthite
you know that feeling when you've done your end of semester exams and your done, relief that it's over, then you talk to your other friends who did the same exam and you all go on about how you answered that qn like a tortured post mortem?
Well, I used to run like mad after the exam and my rule was what's done is done.
It's was all rubbish going over stuff and aimed to make one feel inadequate in answering the qns properly.

What I'm aiming to say is
" when is the price going to be tight for you? " not right ..tight? If you see something that you afford and ticks all your boxes ..
How much can you realistically haggle to know you are not being taken for a ride?

Don't quibble over a measly amount to piss off the vendor either





Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Matthew
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Terry
20 Aug 2015, 10:33 PM
OK, build a simple linear regression model and prove it. You've got the dependent variable and the supposed drivers. Prove it....statistically. Back yourself.
better still if you don't agree - disprove it. I have made my point and stand by it. If you disagree then show me where I went wrong.
Chris
20 Aug 2015, 10:40 PM
That dead horse is not getting any deader Matthew.

Let's go over it again shall we. The governing body for real estate agents, the advocacy group no less, the REIWA state that population DECLINES are having a significant impact on new starts. You are almost brain dead but I'm sure you know what that means, there is no under supply or hint of one they are not building new homes because there isn't the market for them.

What you are trying to assert is that there is an emerging under supply because starts have declined, how do you figure that moron. And then with the same logic explain to me why anyone would ever offer $30k inducements for what is a market that is in in under supply? You are lost in your own rhetoric.

Have the last word though, I know without a Shadow of a doubt that you can't help yourself.
not debating the population growth is declining. The population is still rising. If you can not understand the difference then you are a moron. If you think that the physical population is declining the ABS disagree with you.
Edited by Matthew, 20 Aug 2015, 10:49 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Blondie girl
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Perthite
20 Aug 2015, 07:52 PM
Assuming the decision not to buy was to load up on degrees.

Now what does that do to my income?

:lol
Ha ha
HECS slave.


Chris
20 Aug 2015, 10:40 PM
That dead horse is not getting any deader Matthew.

Let's go over it again shall we. The governing body for real estate agents, the advocacy group no less, the REIWA state that population DECLINES are having a significant impact on new starts. You are almost brain dead but I'm sure you know what that means, there is no under supply or hint of one they are not building new homes because there isn't the market for them.

What you are trying to assert is that there is an emerging under supply because starts have declined, how do you figure that moron. And then with the same logic explain to me why anyone would ever offer $30k inducements for what is a market that is in in under supply? You are lost in your own rhetoric.

Have the last word though, I know without a Shadow of a doubt that you can't help yourself.
Oh no, I didn't miss that insinuation

Why did you make that shadow a capital?

:lol
Shadow is Matthew? ... Sorry I really don't think so.

Holy craps Chris you think that shadow is everywhere...

Shadow come out into that light you Irish lactose intolerant fitness Northern Beachy fitness dude.... Or is it Dymphana... A shemale...or cross dresser..
:lol
Matthew
20 Aug 2015, 10:48 PM

not debating the population growth is declining. The population is still rising. If you can not understand the difference then you are a moron.
Yeah.
Edited by Blondie girl, 20 Aug 2015, 11:20 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Chris
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Matthew
20 Aug 2015, 10:48 PM
better still if you don't agree - disprove it. I have made my point and stand by it. If you disagree then show me where I went wrong.

not debating the population growth is declining. The population is still rising. If you can not understand the difference then you are a moron. If you think that the physical population is declining the ABS disagree with you.
Woooooow, it is like wading through mud. I only continue with this because I actually feel sorry for you.

Do a percentage comparison to the rate of builds leading up to 2015 (your own stats show starts for 2013-14 were highest in history) to the rate of population declines now, it will all become quite apparent even for a simpleton like you. The build starts have dropped way off because population rates have declined, you don't build homes knowing there isn't enough people to buy them once there completed.

But if population rates don't go back to historical highs that lead to the historically high build starts you mentioned then it can be a canabalistic cycle. If you are a construction company and you stop building homes you stop making money, you can't pay your workers contractors, subbies, suppliers etc. if population rates continue to decline or stagnate then a significant portion of construction companies and fore mentioned associated trades become superfluous, going broke and losing their jobs/businesses.

Even someone as deficient as yourself Matthew can join the dots and see how this could go bad. The economy could be decimated because the only industry left in the country is construction, if the demand for this and all peripheral industries soars or goes into reverse then the situation could be dire.

The problem is not population declines (although this is a big deal) it is about population growth being significantly less than what the States construction economy has been built on in the past. Mining goes then housing construction stops/slows, are you getting any of this Maffphew???
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
Lack of building starts fuelled by current low land sales.

It is a no brainer. And if you don't believe it, take a look at the stats from 2011 and 2012 for building, and compare it to what happened to rents and house prices in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

Now is not the best time to buy, as I said I think that market will give 5% to 10%. However the dip will be short. Not going to build enough houses to make it crash.


No Matthew, its quite possible to have a total collapse in building and house prices. Irish builder are only just back in business.

In fact, they are intriniscially linked.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Chris
20 Aug 2015, 11:41 PM
Woooooow, it is like wading through mud. I only continue with this because I actually feel sorry for you.

Do a percentage comparison to the rate of builds leading up to 2015 (your own stats show starts for 2013-14 were highest in history) to the rate of population declines now, it will all become quite apparent even for a simpleton like you. The build starts have dropped way off because population rates have declined, you don't build homes knowing there isn't enough people to buy them once there completed.

But if population rates don't go back to historical highs that lead to the historically high build starts you mentioned then it can be a canabalistic cycle. If you are a construction company and you stop building homes you stop making money, you can't pay your workers contractors, subbies, suppliers etc. if population rates continue to decline or stagnate then a significant portion of construction companies and fore mentioned associated trades become superfluous, going broke and losing their jobs/businesses.

Even someone as deficient as yourself Matthew can join the dots and see how this could go bad. The economy could be decimated because the only industry left in the country is construction, if the demand for this and all peripheral industries soars or goes into reverse then the situation could be dire.

The problem is not population declines (although this is a big deal) it is about population growth being significantly less than what the States construction economy has been built on in the past. Mining goes then housing construction stops/slows, are you getting any of this Maffphew???
That entire post is so factually incorrect it is scary how stupid you are in posting it.

But lets hone in on the one bit you are too fucking stupid to understand:

Quote:
 
to the rate of population declines now
- The population is not declining. Population growth is declining. The population is still rising. By that I mean more people live in WA now than did this time last year, last month, probably last week. A rising population will need somewhere to live, so for every 2.-something people more, you need a house.

Stop building houses to accommodate population growth Chris and what will be the outcome? You think you are smart, if 2.5 people live in each house, but for every 25 additional people you only build 1 house and not 10, what will be the outcome? Get it?

I am confused, are you actually too arrogant to acknowledge you are wrong, or are you so stupid that you actually think you are right?
Veritas
20 Aug 2015, 11:50 PM


No Matthew, its quite possible to have a total collapse in building and house prices. Irish builder are only just back in business.

In fact, they are intriniscially linked.
To have both you first need a massive and consistent over supply of construction. We do not have that. We have 2 years of over supply that almost conveniently counter the previous two years of under supply.

If we had 30,000 starts a year for the next 3 years I would be on the price crash bandwagon, fuck I would be the head cheerleader because it would be a sure bet.

But Jimbo tells us only 50 blocks a week are selling - there is a year in our very near future with a massive undersupply in it.

Get it, or are you as stupid as Chris?
Edited by Matthew, 21 Aug 2015, 12:03 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Chris
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Matthew
21 Aug 2015, 12:00 AM
The population is not declining. Population growth is declining. The population is still rising. By that I mean more people live in WA now than did this time last year, last month, probably last week. A rising population will need somewhere to live, so for every 2.-something people more, you need a house.

Sheesh you are a complete and utter fuckwit, the grey man just ranting until everyone else gives up.

Chicken dinner Maffphew, you are right, WA Is a literal gold mine.

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Matthew
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Chris
21 Aug 2015, 12:19 AM
Sheesh you are a complete and utter fuckwit, the grey man just ranting until everyone else gives up.

Chicken dinner Maffphew, you are right, WA Is a literal gold mine.
Don't get shitty because you are wrong fuckwit, just admit it.

ABS statistics in the most recent year show population grew by over 40,000 people. That is slower growth. It is still growth.

40,000 people would need about 16,000 houses but Jimbo says we will build less than a quarter of that.

Just admit you are wrong, wash your sock, go away and reinvent yourself. Because this one has a hole in it.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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