This is the thing about these uber-bears. The only thing that will make them happy is if others are truly miserable, and even then they will not be happy because they will still be unable to afford to buy.
If property prices crashed tomorrow all they can do is say they were right (eventually). Who really gives a fuck?
Lets play a game - say Perthite or Terry or Veritas decided prices were going to crash in 2008 when this whole bearshit party started and kept renting. Median prices in December 2008 were $480k and today they are about $550k. If prices fell 20% today (absolute outside of the fall range) then they would fall back to $440k - a discount of $40k.
But in the 7 years they waited for the chance to be right they have pissed about $175,000 in rent against the wall.
Meanwhile their "stupid" mates who purchased in 2008 are paying about $570 a week to chip down the mortgage.
So what lesson will the person who purchased in 2008 have learnt? Not one of negative equity, they will have a balance less than the worst crash. And not cost against renting, because they would be paying more to rent a comparable dwelling.
The lesson learnt is that wasting time waiting for something that might happen is costly - in net terms the bear is $135k and 7 years behind.
Winning.
Think I am wrong, come back in 5 years and ask Jimbo how much of the $400k he made in selling his meth lab he has left. If he is honest, the answer will be about $200k. The rest has gone in rent
I truly could not give a fuck if prices fell 40% overnight. I am not selling, and I am not buying. But I can see why they wont. Something that Jimbo cant (vested interest - needs to buy back cheaper to be "right")
Assuming the decision not to buy was to load up on degrees.
Lack of building starts fuelled by current low land sales.
It is a no brainer. And if you don't believe it, take a look at the stats from 2011 and 2012 for building, and compare it to what happened to rents and house prices in 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Now is not the best time to buy, as I said I think that market will give 5% to 10%. However the dip will be short. Not going to build enough houses to make it crash. How about you just grow up and try to make an actual fucking point on the topic being discussed instead of the incessant bullshit you post?
You are a text book sock. Whenever the msm sentiment is negative against property and signs of declines appear you come on and derail the forum and descend it into mindless babble that has no context, no substance and no possible way of doing anything other than stifling debate.
My last post was text book basic psychology, I lay down (metaphorically speaking) and you as a typical bully without a cause just fold, 'just grow up blah blah blah whaaaaah'. You had an open opportunity to prove the cause you were fighting for and stumbled back into personal slander rendering credibility to ZERO.
You reaffirm to me that I have and will continue to make the right decision when it comes to property.
You are a text book sock. Whenever the msm sentiment is negative against property and signs of declines appear you come on and derail the forum and descend it into mindless babble that has no context, no substance and no possible way of doing anything other than stifling debate.
My last post was text book basic psychology, I lay down (metaphorically speaking) and you as a typical bully without a cause just fold, 'just grow up blah blah blah whaaaaah'. You had an open opportunity to prove the cause you were fighting for and stumbled back into personal slander rendering credibility to ZERO.
You reaffirm to me that I have and will continue to make the right decision when it comes to property.
The problem with people like you Chris is no matter how simple you make a point, you still don't understand.
So lets try again.
In the year to December 2010 we built 24,830 houses (5.5% above the recent average)
In the year to December 2011 we built 19,720 houses. That is 16.2% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $489,000 - $6,000 the year prior
In the year to December 2012 we built 20,110 houses. That is 14.5% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $515,000 - $26k above the year prior
By December 2013, thanks to the 8,000 dwelling shortfall in the two years prior prices had risen to $566,000 - up $77k over the three years.
Now, thanks largely to the change in FHB people have rushed to build since the May 2014 budget, something your hero Jimbo said would cause a 25% crash in established dwelling prices by November 2014 (how did that end Jimbo?).
And now we have forgotten to learn from our past lessons and will build SFA houses in the coming 18 months.
So how will that end Chris? How will a massive shortfall in construction assist your price crash desires when the population is still growing?
Get it? See what is coming? Interest rates will remain low, demand will exceed supply again and prices will spike.
The crash just isn't coming. Yes there is a current over supply, yes that should see prices fall. But not crash. Because for them to crash there needs to be a sustained oversupply in houses. And there isn't one.
Do you understand?
Now if you want to make a counterpoint go nuts and tell us how 50 land sales a week will create an oversupply in property when we average 2000, or shut your fucking mouth and just nod in agreement with what is just basic economics not to mention common fucking sense.
Perthite
20 Aug 2015, 08:44 PM
I have talked about it multiple times.
However I doubt I would receive a response worth reading from you so feel free to go back through my posts.
Goal is to buy in the SW.
I really don't care enough to read 3,000 bullshit posts to find a simple answer to a simple question.
At least you have a goal. Just hope there are jobs in the SW for someone loaded up with multiple degrees.
Good luck to you. Just don't be bitter when a price crash isn't part of the equation.
The problem with people like you Chris is no matter how simple you make a point, you still don't understand.
So lets try again.
In the year to December 2010 we built 24,830 houses (5.5% above the recent average)
In the year to December 2011 we built 19,720 houses. That is 16.2% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $489,000 - $6,000 the year prior
In the year to December 2012 we built 20,110 houses. That is 14.5% below the recent average. According to Landgate the December median house price was $515,000 - $26k above the year prior
By December 2013, thanks to the 8,000 dwelling shortfall in the two years prior prices had risen to $566,000 - up $77k over the three years.
Now, thanks largely to the change in FHB people have rushed to build since the May 2014 budget, something your hero Jimbo said would cause a 25% crash in established dwelling prices by November 2014 (how did that end Jimbo?).
And now we have forgotten to learn from our past lessons and will build SFA houses in the coming 18 months.
So how will that end Chris? How will a massive shortfall in construction assist your price crash desires when the population is still growing?
Get it? See what is coming? Interest rates will remain low, demand will exceed supply again and prices will spike.
The crash just isn't coming. Yes there is a current over supply, yes that should see prices fall. But not crash. Because for them to crash there needs to be a sustained oversupply in houses. And there isn't one.
Do you understand?
Now if you want to make a counterpoint go nuts and tell us how 50 land sales a week will create an oversupply in property when we average 2000, or shut your fucking mouth and just nod in agreement with what is just basic economics not to mention common fucking sense. I really don't care enough to read 3,000 bullshit posts to find a simple answer to a simple question.
At least you have a goal. Just hope there are jobs in the SW for someone loaded up with multiple degrees.
Good luck to you. Just don't be bitter when a price crash isn't part of the equation.
A show of hands who thinks Matthew is a fucking lunatic!!
Matthew, I have shown you in my original posts how you are being deceptive, you are banging on about 2013-14 figures as though they are relevant today. It's like someone in the United States in 2008 using 2006-7 figures to prove the health of the market. You can't look at anything in isolation and that's effectively what you are doing. I haven't said Perth will collapse that's purely how you interpreted it because you are a lunatic, what I said was the current indicators are not great.
You won't see it though you're blind faith won't allow you.
Give the topic a break, maybe a few weeks to allow new data to flow through and maybe there might be something to discuss, at the moment you are flogging the fuck out of a dead horse and it's hard to watch.
A show of hands who thinks Matthew is a fucking lunatic!!
Matthew, I have shown you in my original posts how you are being deceptive, you are banging on about 2013-14 figures as though they are relevant today. It's like someone in the United States in 2008 using 2006-7 figures to prove the health of the market. You can't look at anything in isolation and that's effectively what you are doing. I haven't said Perth will collapse that's purely how you interpreted it because you are a lunatic, what I said was the current indicators are not great.
You won't see it though you're blind faith won't allow you.
Give the topic a break, maybe a few weeks to allow new data to flow through and maybe there might be something to discuss, at the moment you are flogging the fuck out of a dead horse and it's hard to watch.
You haven't shown anything other than that you are an idiot with no idea.
If you can not understand the impacts of an undersupply in new completed construction to overall property prices you are beyond help.
If you can not understand that builders can offer a $30,000 carrot without costing themselves any profit through supply chain management you are beyond help.
the only thing that is plain to see here is that you are beyond help.
Again, you need a constant oversupply of construction completion to crash prices. There is a looming shortfall. Economics 101.
If you can not understand what is happening then you should just go away. You are embarrassing yourself and wasting everybody elses time with your bullshit. Sorry, bearshit.
Perthite
20 Aug 2015, 09:22 PM
Ideal location was down 6.7% last quarter.
Can provide a link if you like.
After all it is a fifo base.
go on then, why not. If it is the desired location though why not buy now. Wont fall much further from here. Right house right place right time and all that.
If one walks beyond their technology and takes a drive to see with their eyes what's happening in our city, old houses slowly making way for the new, some built to very high quality design and thought. Also, chopping up the land in accordance to council zoning conditions... do most of you really think some who put their $ into developing really regret it?
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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