I specifically posted a link to an article where the head of REIWA stated quite clearly that population growth is in reverse and getting worse.
You are a dreamer. You are stewing in a broth of half truths and you're spending a lot of time on this forum convincing no one but yourself.
The population is still growing. The growth is slowing. You do understand that slow growth is still growth right? If there are more people in WA than yesterday, even just 1 more person, then that is population growth.
You are a fucking idiot, but then there are plenty of your type out there (keyboard warriors who don't have a fucking clue what is going on).
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
The population is still growing. The growth is slowing. You do understand that slow growth is still growth right? If there are more people in WA than yesterday, even just 1 more person, then that is population growth.
You are a fucking idiot, but then there are plenty of your type out there (keyboard warriors who don't have a fucking clue what is going on).
I think you are downplaying the slowing population growth. The last graph to Dec 2015 looked like it was heading to zero in 6 months time. We will soon discover the truth of that but there is no reason for the population to grow strongly under the current conditions.
I think you are downplaying the slowing population growth. The last graph to Dec 2015 looked like it was heading to zero in 6 months time. We will soon discover the truth of that but there is no reason for the population to grow strongly under the current conditions.
I am not downplaying it at all - let me state again in the current economic conditions I expect prices to fall. The fall I expect to be 5% - 10%. I am not bullish on property at all. I am realistic about it, something that Bears don't seem to understand because if you are not pessimistic to the extreme to a bear you are clueless.....
The graph trending toward zero is a net interstate migration graph. Important but only part of the picture. You need to look at the entire picture. Tomorrows new (as in additional to the pool) homebuyers are a mix of people born between 1985 and 1995, plus NIM and NOM plus investors. In Perth, add in people retiring in the city from regions in net terms (some city folk will retire in the bush, more country people in the city though as they chase better services and healthcare). Birth rates are important and pointed to by some bears, but my 12 year old is a good 10 years from buying a house if he ever does (we have one for him) so tomorrows newborn means little today. Smart people look at all the factors. Dumb people just scream crash
I am bullish about the inevitable rise in prices in a couple of years from now. That is because as King Bear and Spreadsheet Emperor Jimbo states land sales are drying up. That means less builds. That means less homes. That means more competition for existing homes as the population grows.
Economics 101. We build 22,500 houses a year on average. Built 50% more prices will fall (with a lag). Build 50% less prices will rise (with a lag). Only a dumb fuck cant see todays down trend will correct soon and be heading up not long after.
Economics 101. We build 22,500 houses a year on average. Built 50% more prices will fall (with a lag). Build 50% less prices will rise (with a lag). Only a dumb fuck cant see todays down trend will correct soon and be heading up not long after.
Economics 101.
For anything to rise in price, people need to buy the things for sale. To buy things you need income.
Building fewer houses may create a supply shortage down the line, but well before we reach that point, a lot of people who normally build houses will not be building houses.
If they are not building houses, they are not getting paid. They are not spending in the shops or eating out once a week. So people who provide the things that people who build houses normally buy, will also lose their jobs.
Construction employs 10.2% of the WA workforce. More people than agriculture and manufacturing combined. Retail is pretty high as well at 10.1%. But retail relies on other sectors (like construction) paying good wages so that people spend in the shops.
As you have never lived through a full blown recession, I can understand your ignorance.
But believe me, they can be swift and ruthless when they occur. You will find out within a few months.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
For anything to rise in price, people need to buy the things for sale. To buy things you need income.
Building fewer houses may create a supply shortage down the line, but well before we reach that point, a lot of people who normally build houses will not be building houses.
If they are not building houses, they are not getting paid. They are not spending in the shops or eating out once a week. So people who provide the things that people who build houses normally buy, will also lose their jobs.
Construction employs 10.2% of the WA workforce. More people than agriculture and manufacturing combined. Retail is pretty high as well at 10.1%. But retail relies on other sectors (like construction) paying good wages so that people spend in the shops.
As you have never lived through a full blown recession, I can understand your ignorance.
But believe me, they can be swift and ruthless when they occur. You will find out within a few months.
reiwa figures out. Sales down, listings on the rise. Explains the lack of demand in new builds. Perth looks troubled. China on a knife edge. Matty must be wearing granny nappies.
reiwa figures out. Sales down, listings on the rise. Explains the lack of demand in new builds. Perth looks troubled. China on a knife edge. Matty must be wearing granny nappies.
The lack of demand for sand is because those who wanted to buy sand, bought it last year.
Demand was brought forward and even mega bull Mike acknowledged this recently.
The bottom line is that with historically low interest rates and no lack of supply, Perth can only shift 50 blocks of sand a week (against 200 a week last year).
But then again, it is only sand. Maybe people have cottoned on.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
For anything to rise in price, people need to buy the things for sale. To buy things you need income.
Building fewer houses may create a supply shortage down the line, but well before we reach that point, a lot of people who normally build houses will not be building houses.
People will continue to have income. People will continue to live in houses more so than parks, cars or under bridges.
The more people who rent, the less rentals available = increasing prices of rents.
Eventually rents will increase above the point where people think it is cheaper to own, at which point they will buy. At this point if we have not built enough houses to cater for demand prices of houses will rise.
Not only is this the most simple economics lesson of all time Jimbo, but it actually happened this decade.
In 2011 and 2012 we didn't build enough houses. In 2012 rents dropped to critical lows, in November 2013 property prices hit record highs.
Live in denial all you want Jimbo, all it does is show how stupid you are. Keep pissing your profits against the rental wall, you are a short journey from having none of them left, and no vindication that you are seeking.
People will continue to have income. People will continue to live in houses more so than parks, cars or under bridges.
The more people who rent, the less rentals available = increasing prices of rents.
Eventually rents will increase above the point where people think it is cheaper to own, at which point they will buy. At this point if we have not built enough houses to cater for demand prices of houses will rise.
Not only is this the most simple economics lesson of all time Jimbo, but it actually happened this decade.
In 2011 and 2012 we didn't build enough houses. In 2012 rents dropped to critical lows, in November 2013 property prices hit record highs.
Live in denial all you want Jimbo, all it does is show how stupid you are. Keep pissing your profits against the rental wall, you are a short journey from having none of them left, and no vindication that you are seeking.
People will continue to have income. People will continue to live in houses more so than parks, cars or under bridges. Blah Blah Blah...
That's what all the idiots in the US said before their collapse And now it is cheaper to buy in the US but there have been so many job losses and such inflation in everything but wages, home sales have stayed in the bin.
You're an idiot mattie, a masturbatory idiot who's living in the 20th century. You'll spend your retirement eating out of wheeli bins the way you are going.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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