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Perth $30K FHB promotion; Why so desperate?
Topic Started: 19 Aug 2015, 12:54 AM (9,004 Views)
Chris
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 03:53 PM

You are fucking retarded. Numnut.
Funny thing to claim from a bloke that quotes historical figures to prove his point today, pot calling the kettle black from where I stand.

Here's one for ya Matty

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-07/perth-rental-vacancies-rise-as-low-interest-rates-encourage-buy/6450646

From May and has a direct quote from REIWA claiming population is in decline and this is putting downward pressure on new starts and an oversupply in rental stocks. You're banking on significant house price growth when the population is in decline bwahahahaha, and we're the numnuts bwahahahahaha

Pure gold Natthew, keep it coming, pure gold!!!
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
The over supply is 12,000 houses. Are you that dumb that you think that will crash prices? Minor correction down is your best hope.


What you should be worried about is the job losses and the impact on demand.

Construction is a huge employer.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
19 Aug 2015, 05:26 PM
Matthew,

I could post links and graphs till the cows come home that attest to the simple fact that there has been a building boom in WA for much of the last 5 years.

Its been debated here many times.

The fact that you didnt know this should cause you to questions some your assumptions about the market.
2010 - 24,830 (5.5% above average)
2011 - 19,720 (16.2% below average)
2012 - 20,110 (14.5% below average)
2013 - 26,160 (11.2% above average)
2014 - 32,120 (36.5% above average)

5 years - 122,940 (4.5% above average)

There has been a boom for 2 years, not 5.

4.5% above the 12 year average is not a boom in anybody's language.

And the average is a historical average not taking into account population change (population grew at an average of 49,600 people over those 5 years, up 8.3% on the 45,775 people per annum between 2003 and 2014)

Post all the charts you want, they will just prove you can not understand the difference between data and information.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
2010 - 24,830 (5.5% above average)
2011 - 19,720 (16.2% below average)
2012 - 20,110 (14.5% below average)
2013 - 26,160 (11.2% above average)
2014 - 32,120 (36.5% above average


You obviously have a very different idea about what constitutes a building boom than I do.

And for that matter, the HIA, the builders association, REIWA, the mainstream media and just about anyone else who has looked at these numbers
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
19 Aug 2015, 05:45 PM


You obviously have a very different idea about what constitutes a building boom than I do.

And for that matter, the HIA, the builders association, REIWA, the mainstream media and just about anyone else who has looked at these numbers
I don't know anybody who considers 4.5% over historical to be a boom.

2011 and 2012 were certainly not booms. So quick question - what happened to prices in 2013 and 2014 after those poor build years?

The boom occurred in 2013 and 14. That is undeniable. It is also not what you originally claimed. What you originally claimed was since the GFC, and that my friend is bearshit.
Edited by Matthew, 19 Aug 2015, 06:03 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 06:02 PM
I don't know anybody who considers 4.5% over historical to be a boom.

2011 and 2012 were certainly not booms. So quick question - what happened to prices in 2013 and 2014 after those poor build years?

The boom occurred in 2013 and 14. That is undeniable. It is also not what you originally claimed. What you originally claimed was since the GFC, and that my friend is bearshit.
Try the HIA, the Master builders Association and REIWA. To name three. All have used the word boom.

The net point is that after the GFC, there was a short-lived retreat before mining boom mark 2 kicked in. With it came a steady, upward ans accelerating increase in dwelling approvals ( a boom if you will) with property investors instrumental in creating demand. We know this because there is now a glut in rental properties.

But of course it’s not just the supply side, the super smart property investors now have to cope with falling demand as the mining boom comes to a shuddering halt. But housing construction will come to the rescue wont it? Eh, no. As discussed it’s already shot its wad. Bad news for the legions of high vis wearing workers returning from the mines.
Meanwhile the unemployment rate is up to 6.4%,people are leaving the state in their droves and the State budget is in tatters massively reducing the scope for counter cyclical spending.

While bulls wank on about the magical “property cycle” (isn’t it interesting that Shadow and co can’t cite a single reputable economic paper dealing with said cycle?) these are the economic fundamentals that the grownups are dealing with.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
19 Aug 2015, 06:22 PM
Try the HIA, the Master builders Association and REIWA. To name three. All have used the word boom.

The net point is that after the GFC, there was a short-lived retreat before mining boom mark 2 kicked in. With it came a steady, upward ans accelerating increase in dwelling approvals ( a boom if you will) with property investors instrumental in creating demand. We know this because there is now a glut in rental properties.

But of course it’s not just the supply side, the super smart property investors now have to cope with falling demand as the mining boom comes to a shuddering halt. But housing construction will come to the rescue wont it? Eh, no. As discussed it’s already shot its wad. Bad news for the legions of high vis wearing workers returning from the mines.
Meanwhile the unemployment rate is up to 6.4%,people are leaving the state in their droves and the State budget is in tatters massively reducing the scope for counter cyclical spending.

While bulls wank on about the magical “property cycle” (isn’t it interesting that Shadow and co can’t cite a single reputable economic paper dealing with said cycle?) these are the economic fundamentals that the grownups are dealing with.
Again I have no doubt that people have used the word boom in relation to 2013 and 2014, because that is what it is.

Equally I have absolutely no doubt that nobody used the term boom about 2011 and 2012, because they most certainly were not booms (both significantly lower vs average than 2013, so you could use the word "bust" if you want).

When you add the 2 years of bust and the 2 years of boom what do you get? Well when you toss in population change you get a zero sum.

You claimed we have had a building boom since the end of the GFC. That claim is false. Own it.

What we have had is 2 years of building booms that have countered the 2 years of building bust that immediately preceded it.

So with next year looking shit, what do you think will happen to the supply side?

Get it? Or do I need to type slower for you.

My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 06:28 PM
Again I have no doubt that people have used the word boom in relation to 2013 and 2014, because that is what it is.

Equally I have absolutely no doubt that nobody used the term boom about 2011 and 2012, because they most certainly were not booms (both significantly lower vs average than 2013, so you could use the word "bust" if you want).

When you add the 2 years of bust and the 2 years of boom what do you get? Well when you toss in population change you get a zero sum.

You claimed we have had a building boom since the end of the GFC. That claim is false. Own it.

What we have had is 2 years of building booms that have countered the 2 years of building bust that immediately preceded it.

So with next year looking shit, what do you think will happen to the supply side?

Get it? Or do I need to type slower for you.
Ah I see, so you want to have an argument about semantics.
Learning from Shadow I see.
I have no interest in an argument about semantics but I will see I meant since as “subsequent to” not the since November 2008 there has been an uninterrupted boom in house building.
Can we get back on topic now?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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since November 2008 there has been an uninterrupted boom in house building


So you are just ignoring the fact that in 2011 and 2012 house building was over 14.5% less than the 12 year average? That is not a boom that is a gigantic fucking slump. And what was the result? Well by November 2013 thanks to this building slump Perth prices hit a record high of $570,000 (Landgate median)

Those years stopped the boom you state started in 2008. Stopped it stone fucking cold.

The current "boom" started in 2013. It appears that it too will be stopped cold in 2016.

It isn't semantics mate, it is a fact. You made a claim, your claim is wrong. Own it.
Chris
19 Aug 2015, 05:27 PM
You're banking on significant house price growth when the population is in decline bwahahahaha, and we're the numnuts bwahahahahaha

Pure gold Natthew, keep it coming, pure gold!!!
I am not banking on significant house price growth, I expect a 5% - 10% fall, said so on this very forum. Then when the lack of building starts catches up with population growth, I expect a rise again.

As I said low building starts are the natural enemy of the property bear. You want a crash, you want 32,000 starts a year for 5 years to create 50,000 surplus dwellings, then you will see your crash. Jimbo tells us not enough land has sold for 10,000 starts next year.

If you take off you bear goggles and just look at what is actually happening, it is quite easy to see. There will be a price dip, but it has an expiration date that will look something like March 2017, and it will not be anything like 20%, may not even hit 10% from current levels.
Edited by Matthew, 19 Aug 2015, 07:32 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Chris
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 07:20 PM


So you are just ignoring the fact that in 2011 and 2012 house building was over 14.5% less than the 12 year average? That is not a boom that is a gigantic fucking slump. And what was the result? Well by November 2013 thanks to this building slump Perth prices hit a record high of $570,000 (Landgate median)

Those years stopped the boom you state started in 2008. Stopped it stone fucking cold.

The current "boom" started in 2013. It appears that it too will be stopped cold in 2016.

It isn't semantics mate, it is a fact. You made a claim, your claim is wrong. Own it.

I am not banking on significant house price growth, I expect a 5% - 10% fall, said so on this very forum. Then when the lack of building starts catches up with population growth, I expect a rise again.

As I said low building starts are the natural enemy of the property bear. You want a crash, you want 32,000 starts a year for 5 years to create 50,000 surplus dwellings, then you will see your crash. Jimbo tells us not enough land has sold for 10,000 starts next year.

If you take off you bear goggles and just look at what is actually happening, it is quite easy to see. There will be a price dip, but it has an expiration date that will look something like March 2017, and it will not be anything like 20%, may not even hit 10% from current levels.
What population growth??

I specifically posted a link to an article where the head of REIWA stated quite clearly that population growth is in reverse and getting worse.

You are a dreamer. You are stewing in a broth of half truths and you're spending a lot of time on this forum convincing no one but yourself.
Edited by Chris, 19 Aug 2015, 08:55 PM.
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