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Perth $30K FHB promotion; Why so desperate?
Topic Started: 19 Aug 2015, 12:54 AM (9,005 Views)
newjez
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So Matty, when the demand for oranges falls, the demand for apples will increase, and the price of apples will increase? If there is a shortage of oranges yes. But not if people are sick of eating fruit. You numnut. Don't you understand the difference between supply side and demand side?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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Chris
19 Aug 2015, 10:55 AM
Not true at all Matthew, starts were at record high during 2013 into 2014, a period where sentiment was still unexplainable high

http://m.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/residential-building-starts-in-wa-at-record-highs-according-to-abs-data/story-fnhlgriw-1227091731413

The climate now is catastrophic in comparison

https://sourceable.net/residential-construction-in-perth-hits-a-brick-wall/

For you to pretend, or worse, believe that housing in Perth is not in dire straights you are embarrassing yourself. The writing is on the wall, Perth is in crisis and it has the very real prospect of collapsing in spectacular fashion, it may not but unfortunately it has the potential.
See you are another bear with a language issue. The market is not in dire straights, nor is it catastrophic. The market is softer than it was 2 years ago.

Things don't need to boom and crash Chris, most things just slide along nicely in a band of up and down a bit. The current relative oversupply in houses for sale and available for rent will naturally be swallowed within two years by the next 2 years of low building starts.

Once prices rise again (rents first) people will move back to building or buying (rising house prices).

We saw this in Perth between 2012 and 2013, it happened so recently in almost identical circumstances (not enough houses for the population of the day) yet people like you think it can not happen again and celebrate the fact that Perth will build 30% next year of the historical average. The population continues to grow. The best chance of a price crash is 25,000 completed dwellings for the next 3 years. That with the reduced population growth might have 15,000 available rentals and 25,000 available properties and then you will see a major correction.

If you can not see that the looming massive undersupply of new completed dwellings will lift prices in the market, then you are embarrassing yourself.

Low building starts are not the friend of the bear, they are your natural enemy. You and Jimbo are just too fucking stupid to realise it.
newjez
19 Aug 2015, 03:52 PM
So Matty, when the demand for oranges falls, the demand for apples will increase, and the price of apples will increase? If there is a shortage of oranges yes. But not if people are sick of eating fruit. You numnut. Don't you understand the difference between supply side and demand side?
That example bears absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the topic at hand and a person who pretends to be as smart as you do should be embarrassed to have typed it.

People have a myriad of food options. They have exactly three housing options:

1) Own a house
2) Rent a house
3) Sleep in a park or under a bridge.

Are people sick of living in houses?

If the population grows at a rate of 50,000 people per year, and on average 2.5 (for example) live in each dwelling then to provide adequate housing to meet natural demand you need to complete 20,000 dwellings.

If you only build 10,000 dwellings, you are 10,000 dwellings short. That means some will rent reducing the available rentals and stabilising first before increasing prices, and some will buy reducing listings and stabilising prices first before they rise.

If land sales don't improve in 2016 then you repeat the above.

On todays numbers that would mean about 1,000 available rentals and 4,000 available dwellings in Perth. What do you think that would do to prices dickhead?

Again I state low building starts are the natural enemy of the property bear. Economics 101.

You are fucking retarded. Numnut.
Edited by Matthew, 20 Aug 2015, 01:27 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Perthite
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 03:53 PM
See you are another bear with a language issue. The market is not in dire straights, nor is it catastrophic. The market is softer than it was 2 years ago.

Things don't need to boom and crash Chris, most things just slide along nicely in a band of up and down a bit. The current relative oversupply in houses for sale and available for rent will naturally be swallowed within two years by the next 2 years of low building starts.

Once prices rise again (rents first) people will move back to building or buying (rising house prices).

We saw this in Perth between 2012 and 2013, it happened so recently in almost identical circumstances (not enough houses for the population of the day) yet people like you think it can not happen again and celebrate the fact that Perth will build 30% next year of the historical average. The population continues to grow. The best chance of a price crash is 25,000 completed dwellings for the next 3 years. That with the reduced population growth might have 15,000 available rentals and 25,000 available properties and then you will see a major correction.

If you can not see that the looming massive undersupply of new completed dwellings will lift prices in the market, then you are embarrassing yourself.

Low building starts are not the friend of the bear, they are your natural enemy. You and Jimbo are just too fucking stupid to realise it.

That example bears absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the topic at hand and a person who pretends to be as smart as you do should be embarrassed to have typed it.

People have a myriad of food options. They have exactly three housing options:

1) Own a house
2) Rent a house
3) Sleep in a park or under a bridge.

Are people sick of living in houses?

If the population grows at a rate of 50,000 people per year, and on average 2.5 (for example) live in each dwelling then to provide adequate housing to meet natural demand you need to complete 20,000 dwellings.

If you only build 10,000 dwellings, you are 10,000 dwellings short. That means some will rent reducing the available rentals and stabilising first before increasing prices, and some will buy reducing listings and stabilising prices first before they rise.

If land sales don't improve in 2016 then you repeat the above.

On todays numbers that would mean about 1,000 available rentals and 4,000 available dwellings in Perth. What do you think that would do to priced dickhead?

Again I state low building starts are the natural enemy of the property bear. Economics 101.

You are fucking retarded. Numnut.
Matt property transactions are below GFC levels.

The market stinks.
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Matthew
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Perthite
19 Aug 2015, 04:01 PM
Matt property transactions are below GFC levels.

The market stinks.
Since the GFC the change in Australian consumer behaviour to paying down debt is well documented.

There were articles recently that people are living in their houses longer, citing high transfer costs (particularly stamp duty) as a barrier to trading up.

We have an aging population, once people are in family homes, they tend to stay longer. And you have inner city modernisation occurring (look at the houses in premium and central suburbs where the 1960's is knocked down and the new build up) - there are entire streets in South Perth/ Como / Kensington that would have 60% of the houses less than 5 years old.

The market may stink if you are eeking out a living selling houses, or hoping to flip property for a quick profit, but the market is stable. Prices are not tanking, they are not booming. Even meth labs in Warnbro continue to rise in price - just slowly.
Edited by Matthew, 19 Aug 2015, 04:20 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Terry
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Actually, I have a client in SEA whose doing the same with men's shampoo. Every unit of shampoo comes with a free tube of facial wash. The Thais love getting stuff for free, but the price of the shampoo is high for the target consumer. The local marketing team persists with the free sample, even though sales are struggling. I've shown the marketers that the OPP (optimal price point) is about 25% lower through research. They don't want to hear it and persist with the samples, even though the business unit is slowly going broke.

I can see the parallels with Perth here.
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Veritas
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 04:19 PM
Since the GFC the change in Australian consumer behaviour to paying down debt is well documented.

There were articles recently that people are living in their houses longer, citing high transfer costs (particularly stamp duty) as a barrier to trading up.

We have an aging population, once people are in family homes, they tend to stay longer. And you have inner city modernisation occurring (look at the houses in premium and central suburbs where the 1960's is knocked down and the new build up) - there are entire streets in South Perth/ Como / Kensington that would have 60% of the houses less than 5 years old.

The market may stink if you are eeking out a living selling houses, or hoping to flip property for a quick profit, but the market is stable. Prices are not tanking, they are not booming. Even meth labs in Warnbro continue to rise in price - just slowly.
You haven’t a clue.
Since the GFC Perth has been building at levels rarely (if ever) seen before.
Much of the demand came from investors who wet themselves with excitement as Mining boom stage 2 (post Chinese stimulus 2010) caused a rental crisis.
They have built into an oversupply just as demand is plummeting.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
19 Aug 2015, 04:43 PM
You haven’t a clue.
Since the GFC Perth has been building at levels rarely (if ever) seen before.
Much of the demand came from investors who wet themselves with excitement as Mining boom stage 2 (post Chinese stimulus 2010) caused a rental crisis.
They have built into an oversupply just as demand is plummeting.
Do you ever actually research a comment, or are you just a "gut feel" kind of guy who thinks he is right?

According to HIA, between 2003 and 2008 WA had 139,060 housing starts (an average of 23,176 per annum). In the 6 years since (2009 - 2014, a period that could also be called "post GFC") that was 143,340 (an average of 23,890 per annum). The difference a massive 3% more.

More than that, the WA population has risen from 1,969,000 in December 2003 to 2,518,300 in December 2014 - an increase of 549,300 people.

So at the census 2.51 people per household in WA, we needed to build 218,410 houses just to accommodate population growth, meaning that there were an additional 63,990 houses built. However it is fair to say that much of the surplus has gone to new for old replacement properties in suburbs such as South Perth, Como, Cottesloe, Maylands, West Perth, Wembley, Trigg, City Beach etc etc etc.

That is why we do not have a massive oversupply, that is why prices are not crashing and that is why you bearshit crazy simpletons should understand that any massive fall in construction starts in the next couple of years will do SFA to fuel your house crash desires.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 05:06 PM
Do you ever actually research a comment, or are you just a "gut feel" kind of guy who thinks he is right?

According to HIA, between 2003 and 2008 WA had 139,060 housing starts (an average of 23,176 per annum). In the 6 years since (2009 - 2014, a period that could also be called "post GFC") that was 143,340 (an average of 23,890 per annum). The difference a massive 3% more.

More than that, the WA population has risen from 1,969,000 in December 2003 to 2,518,300 in December 2014 - an increase of 549,300 people.

So at the census 2.51 people per household in WA, we needed to build 218,410 houses just to accommodate population growth, meaning that there were an additional 63,990 houses built. However it is fair to say that much of the surplus has gone to new for old replacement properties in suburbs such as South Perth, Como, Cottesloe, Maylands, West Perth, Wembley, Trigg, City Beach etc etc etc.

That is why we do not have a massive oversupply, that is why prices are not crashing and that is why you bearshit crazy simpletons should understand that any massive fall in construction starts in the next couple of years will do SFA to fuel your house crash desires.
You poor lamb

Quote:
 
RESIDENTIAL building commencements in WA are at record highs according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today.

“As forecast by Master Builders Australia, Western Australia has shattered a 25-year record for dwelling commencements,” said MBA chief economist Peter Jones.

“At nearly 29,000 starts for the year 2013-14, housing starts are the highest level since 1989.

“Today’s figures show record dwelling starts for the June quarter 2014 of 7481 in original

terms compared to 6850 in the same period in 1989. This takes starts for 2013-14 to


28,966 compared to 27,965 in 1989.


http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/residential-building-starts-in-wa-at-record-highs-according-to-abs-data/story-fnhlgriw-1227091731413

Quote:
 
2014: Record Year for WA Home Building
The Housing Industry Association (HIA), the voice of Australia’s residential building industry, today
released the Spring 2014 edition of its WA Outlook, the state’s most comprehensive housing report card.
“New home building is on track to peak at over 30,000 starts this year, an all-time record,” commented
HIA Executive Director, Western Australia, John Gelavis.

“New home building is finally starting to respond more fully to the massive population increases in WA
over recent years and Government stimulus.”
“Strong dwelling price growth in Perth and record low interest rates have also helped to boost housing
activity in the state. These factors will also allow the home renovations market to look forward to a few
years of growth.”
“Ensuring that WA’s long-term housing needs are met will require bold action from government in
delivering a more substantial pipeline of titled residential land and continuous improvement on the
building approvals process currently underway,” concluded John Gelavis.
New dwelling commencements in WA are forecast to increase by 15.7 per cent in 2014 to 30,200, the
highest annual total on record for the state. Activity is then expected to fall back in 2015, with a
forecasted 12.7 per cent reduction. In 2016, activity is forecast to decline again, by 7.6 per cent, which
would take dwelling commencements down to 24,350.
Renovations investment is projected to fall by 10.0 per cent in 2014 to $3.67 billion. In 2015, renovations
activity is projected to rise by 4.0 per cent, followed by another increase in the following year. The
forecasted rise of 4.8 per cent would bring the value of renovations activity to $3.99 billion in 2016.https://hia.com.au/~/media/HIA%20Website/Files/Media%20Centre/Media%20Releases/2014/WA/Record%20Year%20for%20Home%20Building%20-%20WA.ashx

Edited by Veritas, 19 Aug 2015, 05:21 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Matthew
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Veritas
19 Aug 2015, 05:14 PM
so all you want to do is take your comment that
Quote:
 
Since the GFC Perth has been building at levels rarely (if ever) seen before
which is proven to be wrong and narrow that down to just 2013 and 2014 where 26,160 and 32,120 starts respectively occurred?

OK, but again I state that if 2015, 2016 and 2017 all fall short of 20,000 starts (2016 will most certainly on face value) then that average of 29,000 which is 23% above the 12 year average will settle right back at the (now) 15 year average of 23,500.

The over supply is 12,000 houses. Are you that dumb that you think that will crash prices? Minor correction down is your best hope.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Veritas
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Matthew
19 Aug 2015, 05:23 PM
so all you want to do is take your comment that
which is proven to be wrong and narrow that down to just 2013 and 2014 where 26,160 and 32,120 starts respectively occurred?

OK, but again I state that if 2015, 2016 and 2017 all fall short of 20,000 starts (2016 will most certainly on face value) then that average of 29,000 which is 23% above the 12 year average will settle right back at the (now) 15 year average of 23,500.

The over supply is 12,000 houses. Are you that dumb that you think that will crash prices? Minor correction down is your best hope.
Matthew,

I could post links and graphs till the cows come home that attest to the simple fact that there has been a building boom in WA for much of the last 5 years.

Its been debated here many times.

The fact that you didnt know this should cause you to questions some your assumptions about the market.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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