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Central Auckland House Prices Drop $84,500 in a Month
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2015, 11:24 PM (5,894 Views)
The Whole Truth
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 09:59 PM
Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 09:13 PM
stop playing the victim all the time, it's not a good look.
OK, well if you're no longer obsessed with me, then perhaps you'll stop chasing me around the forum now.
What's the matter shadow, can you give it out but not take it in return? You're the queen of stalkers if anyone is? Following me around, and trying to dissect every post I make with your home grown charts and bullshit statistics :lol

Why don't you take a teaspoon of cement and stop your incessant whining you old bitch
Trollie
15 Aug 2015, 11:10 AM
Terry
14 Aug 2015, 10:06 PM
If big data works on the rawest data possible
So you think "big data" where data sets are huge, will be interpreted with no analytic's? Just the raw terabytes.
Dolie dolie dolie, I thought you had sworn off trying to think and join discussions and had gone back to the grunting and nose picking that you excell (are really good ) at. But here you are again making a fool of yourself, tripping over simple concepts ( Ideas ) and fucking up all your spelling and grammar.

Just stick with basics dolie...
grunt grunt, grunt grunt.
Edited by The Whole Truth, 15 Aug 2015, 04:54 PM.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Terry
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Trollie
15 Aug 2015, 04:16 PM
That's not an answer.

To look at the data. A daring move I know.
Yes, it is. Understanding data structure is essential before starting any analysis. Secondly, looking at a single data point which shows the median sale as 84K lower than in the previous in a month is an obvious focal point considering:

1. Those sales represents 30%+ of total sales

2. 84K is larger than an annual salary and probably closer to 16-18 months of actual take home salary

That's what good analysts do. They look at interesting points like this and understand the relationship across data sets. It's big business and that's where people get paid far more than suburban handymen. The REINZ market commentary is no more sophisticated than what most people learn at high school.

It's 2015. We're in an age of data analytical revolution. Pushing the boundaries is not just interesting. It's fun.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Aug 2015, 10:55 AM
If you want to chase me around the forum calling me your princess, that's up to you.

Just calling it as I see it :D
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The Whole Truth
15 Aug 2015, 04:44 PM
take a teaspoon of cement and stop your incessant whining you old bitch
Angry much? Put me on ignore if my posts get under your skin that badly.
Rastus2
15 Aug 2015, 05:37 PM
Just calling it as I see it
OK. Keep fighting the good fight. :re:
Edited by Shadow, 15 Aug 2015, 09:08 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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peter fraser
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Terry
15 Aug 2015, 05:30 PM
Yes, it is. Understanding data structure is essential before starting any analysis. Secondly, looking at a single data point which shows the median sale as 84K lower than in the previous in a month is an obvious focal point considering:

1. Those sales represents 30%+ of total sales

2. 84K is larger than an annual salary and probably closer to 16-18 months of actual take home salary

That's what good analysts do. They look at interesting points like this and understand the relationship across data sets. It's big business and that's where people get paid far more than suburban handymen. The REINZ market commentary is no more sophisticated than what most people learn at high school.

It's 2015. We're in an age of data analytical revolution. Pushing the boundaries is not just interesting. It's fun.
It does sound like you are calling a top for Auckland and falling prices from here.
Is that right, you normally aren't brave enough to make a call, what changed your mind on this call?

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Loki
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Trollie
15 Aug 2015, 11:10 AM
So you think "big data" where data sets are huge, will be interpreted with no analytic's? Just the raw terabytes.

Show us how you would do this terry.
Aren't you a little out of your league here?

Or do you have something to enlighten us on how big data analytics is done?
Edited by Loki, 15 Aug 2015, 10:48 PM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
15 Aug 2015, 09:07 PM
The Whole Truth
15 Aug 2015, 04:44 PM
take a teaspoon of cement and stop your incessant whining you old bitch
Angry much? Put me on ignore if my posts get to you

No, never angry with you bulls, I don't even get frustrated now. My role here is akin to that of a teacher in a special school but I forget that sometimes and you get confused. I must remember, little steps for yoir tiny feet.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Terry
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peter fraser
15 Aug 2015, 09:22 PM
It does sound like you are calling a top for Auckland and falling prices from here.
Is that right, you normally aren't brave enough to make a call, what changed your mind on this call?
Why call a top on Auckland house prices? The NZ economy is heavily reliant on it at the moment. The institutional juggernaut realizes how crucial house prices to consumer spending. But that misses the whole point of volatility and what it actually means. Only the data nerds are interested in that. And variance in data patterns is far beyond the scope and interest of most people in the suburbs.
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Terry
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Looks like the data nerds have been chewing the ear of the Kiwi PM.

Key said the Government's preferred house prices to keep rising, "but at a very modest level."

"You saw a correction in the (Auckland) median house price last month and that didn't keep me awake at night, so no that doesn't necessarily do that."

He said he did not expect a big correction in Auckland house prices "unless people get carried away."

"But I think you run the risk that there's more of a correction if things carry on at the same price."

http://goo.gl/kiXF10
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peter fraser
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Quote:
 
Auckland property sales race ahead while prices mark time
LINK

While Auckland house sales activity was at its highest in more than 15 years during July, price increases stalled with the average sales price at $827,359 remaining much the same as for the past two months.

"In July, the average sales price was within $1000 of that for June, and only $5000 ahead of that for May," said Peter Thompson, Managing Director of Barfoot and Thompson.

"A stable average price over a three month period is a trend we have not witnessed for some time.

"The combination of high turnover and stable price, points to buyer confidence in the strength of the market at current prices but also recognition that property is fully priced.

"The last three months of trading also demonstrates that high sales numbers can be sustained without prices increasing.

"The first signs that price increases were slowing could be seen in last month's sales figures, and this month's results confirm that prices are no longer racing ahead.

"In fact, the median price in July at $757,000 is down $29,000 on that for June, but up $7000 on that for May.

"What continues without pause, however, is property turnover, and in July we sold 1388 homes, 18.9 percent higher than the number in June and 41.2 percent higher than in July last year.

"It is the highest sales figure for a July going back to 1999, and 4.5 percent higher than in July 2003, the year normally regarded as the most active on record.

"New listings at 1777 were the second highest for any month this year (the highest being in March at 1997), and were 27.3 percent higher than in July last year.

"Total listings at month end at 2802 were at their lowest since December last year, and will contribute to choice remaining tight during August.

"Sales of properties in the million dollar plus category at 411 during the month were the second highest on record.

"There was also strong interest in property in the under $500,000 category, with sales numbers reaching 200 and representing 14.4 percent of all sales. In June sales of properties under $500,000 fell to 13.6 percent of sales.

"With Spring approaching comparing market activity in the next few months with 2014 trading could be challenging, as in 2014 trading was significantly impacted by a 'wait and see' attitude that developed as we moved towards the General Election. In the lead up to the election sales numbers slowed and prices did not recover until November."
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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