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Central Auckland House Prices Drop $84,500 in a Month
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2015, 11:24 PM (5,896 Views)
Stacey
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Stop arguing you guys, who's cares about prices in another country anyway. This is the AUSTRALIAN property forum
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Terry
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Andrew Judd
14 Aug 2015, 04:49 PM
if you are using the result only of a median you have no idea at all if prices fell. Computers and it being 2015 makes no difference at all. There is no way of providing an answer either way for a single calculation on a small sample.

Well there you go Sonny Jim. Typically "big data" doesn't work from medians. But most of the media you consume likely does.
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Andrew Judd
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Terry
14 Aug 2015, 05:57 PM
Well there you go Sonny Jim. Typically "big data" doesn't work from medians. But most of the media you consume likely does.
>>OK. Perhaps 30+% of homes sold at median prices 84K lower than the previous month because of compositional bias. There you go

Make your mind up.

By the way I am 60 next month, so for the purposes of a conversation are you able to behave?
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Rastus2
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 05:04 PM
??? :bl:

You do realise gold is a single asset, right, and that the value is published continuously?

It's not a median price based on sales during the previous month.

Compositional bias and stratification don't come into it.
You do realise I made no mention of median price compositions or stratifications don't you ? :re:

Strawman lecture from you...


If you bother reading my post before mashing the keyboard I wrote of moving average.

With a volatile price, moving average helps give less noise... A point you were keen to make on property, but are oblivious to for gold.


Just in case you need to read about moving averagew, and what smoothing constant to use in the MA...

http://www.paritech.com.au/education/tech_anaylsis/trend/methods.html


Edited by Rastus2, 14 Aug 2015, 06:39 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 06:35 PM
You do realise I made no mention of median price compositions or stratifications don't you ? :re:

Strawman lecture from you...

If you bother reading my post before mashing the keyboard I wrote of moving average.

With a volatile price, moving average helps give less noise... A point you were keen to make on property, but are oblivious to for gold.
As far as I know, nobody on this forum has ever discussed gold in terms of moving averages. You're really clutching here.

Terry posted a PDF file which happens to show a 12 month MA for Auckland house prices. If you have an issue with his chart, take it up with Terry.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 06:39 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 06:38 PM
As far as I know, nobody on this forum has ever discussed gold in terms of moving averages. You're really clutching here.

Terry posted a PDF file which happens to show a 12 month MA for Auckland house prices. If you have an issue with his chart, take it up with Terry.
I added a link when I edited my post for you to help you learn.

MA is used on many charts for stocks and commodities... your assertion that it should be used for property is probably clutching at straws more than its use in gold, however I let it go because MA's can be useful for volitile noise... it was funny to see you lecture me on a subject you know so little on

Just because you were oblivious to the truth does not make it any less so.
Edited by Rastus2, 14 Aug 2015, 06:43 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 06:41 PM
I added a link when I edited my post for you to help you learn.

MA is used on many charrs, stock and commodities... your assertion that it should be used for property is probably clutching at straws more than its use in gold.

Just because you were oblivious to the truth does not make it any less so.
The REINZ think it should be used - and they used it in the PDF file that Terry posted. It's a useful way to smooth out the volatility caused by the compositional bias inherent in unstratified raw medians. If you have an issue with it, stop whinging incessantly at me, and take it up with either the REINZ who created the chart, or Terry who posted the link to it. :re:

Have you noticed that I ignore all your posts unless they're directed at me, whereas any time I post anything, it drives you into a bizarre rage where you barge into discussions that you weren't involved in, and chase me around the forum to nitpick over nothing. It's all rather obsessive. Do you have dreams about me as well?
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 06:51 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 06:41 PM
I added a link when I edited my post for you to help you learn.

MA is used on many charts for stocks and commodities... your assertion that it should be used for property is probably clutching at straws more than its use in gold, however I let it go because MA's can be useful for volitile noise... it was funny to see you lecture me on a subject you know so little on

Just because you were oblivious to the truth does not make it any less so.
Moving averages are bollocks to understand what is happening now, whether it be gold or house prices. Both are an aggregate of transactions. The ability to map data on monthly changes is interesting. I very much doubt you've seen a monthly movement in a single month that is the equivalent or more of an annual salary in 30% of the the sales of houses in NZ's largest city. That's all.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 06:44 PM
The REINZ think it should be used - and they used it in the PDF file that Terry posted. It's a useful way to smooth out the volatility caused by the compositional bias inherent in unstratified raw medians. If you have an issue with it, stop whinging incessantly at me, and take it up with either the REINZ who created the chart, or Terry who posted the link to it. :re:

Have you noticed that I ignore all your posts unless they're directed at me, whereas any time I post anything, it drives you into a bizarre rage where you barge into discussions that you weren't involved in, and chase me around the forum to nitpick over nothing. It's all rather obsessive. Do you have dreams about me as well?
Bizarre, obsessed, ..

Seems your happy to throw insults while crying foul in other posts... more double stands from the queen of double standards herself... :D


As for your other dribbles, you have posted in between discussion I had with others... stop playing the victim all the time, it's not a good look.
Edited by Rastus2, 14 Aug 2015, 09:38 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Terry
14 Aug 2015, 01:59 PM
. In the world of data analytics in 2015, the more raw the data, the better.
It doesn't matter what year it is terry, taking raw data at face value is bad statistics.
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