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Central Auckland House Prices Drop $84,500 in a Month
Topic Started: 13 Aug 2015, 11:24 PM (5,891 Views)
Terry
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Yep, that's no horseshit there. The median price fell by probably a pretty good annual salary.....in a month. Now let's give us a little perspective and note that prices only fell 2.6% across the region. But the trend is all good and Central Auckland represented 33% of sales in July.

But damn. Wouldn't that make for some excellent excitement over our way.

http://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/embedded_images/REINZ%20Residential%20Regional%20Commentary%20-%20July%202015.pdf
Edited by Terry, 13 Aug 2015, 11:26 PM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Volatile unstratified raw medians. Looking at the chart, similar falls have occurred roughly every year since 2010.

It might be more instructive to look at the 12 month moving average (that's the red line).

Posted Image

But you knew this, right? Since you are the forum's most eminent statistician. :lol
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Attachments: Auckland.jpg (127.58 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 13 Aug 2015, 11:46 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
13 Aug 2015, 11:44 PM
Volatile unstratified raw medians. Looking at the chart, similar falls have occurred roughly every year since 2010.

It might be more instructive to look at the 12 month moving average (that's the red line).

Posted Image

But you knew this, right? Since you are the forum's most eminent statistician. :lol
Read the comment again Sonny Jim.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Terry
13 Aug 2015, 11:54 PM
Read the comment again Sonny Jim.
It didn't get any better the second time. If I read it three times does the Candyman appear? Or BearTrap?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 12:01 AM
It didn't get any better the second time. If I read it three times does the Candyman appear? Or BearTrap?
It must be waffle then. Best not drift out of your own reality. And no. Your charts do not show falls of 84K in central Auckland occurring every year.
Edited by Terry, 14 Aug 2015, 12:05 AM.
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Shadow
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Terry
14 Aug 2015, 12:03 AM
Your charts do not show falls of 84K in central Auckland occurring every year.
It's your chart, from the PDF you posted.

And it does show falls in Auckland every year, and of similar magnitude each year.

So it's likely that the 10% fall specific to Central Auckland is also not an uncommon occurrence.

Volatility like that isn't unusual when you're dealing with unstratified raw medians over a limited data-set such as one small district within an individual city.

But being an expert stats guy, you would have known that.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 12:15 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Terry
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 12:14 AM
It's your chart, from the PDF you posted.

And it does show falls in Auckland every year, and of similar magnitude each year.

So it's likely that the 10% fall specific to Central Auckland is also not an uncommon occurrence.

Volatility like that isn't unusual when you're dealing with unstratified raw medians over a limited data-set such as one small district within an individual city.

But being an expert stats guy, you would have known that.
Learn to look at data properly. The chart does not show Central Auckland. Also, the magnitude of the falls in the greater region are not 84K.
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Shadow
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Terry
14 Aug 2015, 12:31 AM
Learn to look at data properly. The chart does not show Central Auckland.
I didn't say it did.

Quote:
 
Also, the magnitude of the falls in the greater region are not 84K.
I didn't say that either.

I said the 10% fall specific to Central Auckland is probably not an uncommon occurrence, given that your chart shows regular falls of consistent magnitude across Auckland (i.e. across the whole region).

If falls occur every year across the region, then it's likely that falls in Central Auckland also occur fairly regularly.

This is unstratified raw data we're looking at, and as the forum stats guy you would almost certainly be aware of its inherent volatility due to compositional bias.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 01:19 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Chris
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When are you two just guna make out and get it over with.

Geeeeesh, the sexual tension is palpitating!!
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Terry
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 01:14 AM
I didn't say it did.


I didn't say that either.

I said the 10% fall specific to Central Auckland is probably not an uncommon occurrence, given that your chart shows regular falls of consistent magnitude across Auckland (i.e. across the whole region).

If falls occur every year across the region, then it's likely that falls in Central Auckland also occur fairly regularly.

This is unstratified raw data we're looking at, and as the forum stats guy you would almost certainly be aware of its inherent volatility due to compositional bias.
OK. Perhaps 30+% of homes sold at median prices 84K lower than the previous month because of compositional bias. There you go.
Edited by Terry, 14 Aug 2015, 01:51 AM.
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