Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2
Pizza delivery boy with 10 investment properties is canary in the coalmine for Aussie housing bubble; Credit Crunch Looming. Goldman Sachs says Australian housing is 36% overvalued.
Topic Started: 9 Aug 2015, 07:36 PM (4,789 Views)
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Not a huge number of posts to this thread citing Chris Joye, the new bear pinup poster boy.

I have to say, he has certainly changed a lot over the years... I wonder if he will unload some of his property portfolio ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
18 Aug 2015, 09:34 PM
Not a huge number of posts to this thread citing Chris Joye, the new bear pinup poster boy.

I have to say, he has certainly changed a lot over the years... I wonder if he will unload some of his property portfolio ?
His dad, Ian Joye, sold a Palm Beach property for $25 million in 2012... http://news.domain.com.au/domain/palatial-palm-beach-property-sells-for-25m-20120423-1xhec.html

Don't know if that was based on advice from Chris, but 2012 was the bottom of the market for Sydney overall, and prices have boomed since then.

Although it's hard to determine any direction for Palm Beach itself as there are so few sales each year, especially in that price range, so the median is very volatile.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
Member Avatar


Shadow
18 Aug 2015, 09:59 PM
His dad, Ian Joye, sold a Palm Beach property for $25 million in 2012... http://news.domain.com.au/domain/palatial-palm-beach-property-sells-for-25m-20120423-1xhec.html

Don't know if that was based on advice from Chris, but 2012 was the bottom of the market for Sydney overall, and prices have boomed since then.

Although it's hard to determine any direction for Palm Beach itself as there are so few sales each year, especially in that price range, so the median is very volatile.
Thanks, I didn't know that.

He prob should have sold it for the 30 million offered earlier several years before, but hey, it's hard to say he did badly considering what he paid for it.

"In 1978, Mr Joye bought the Ocean Road property from the Horderns for $330,000." -- wow.

His dad seems to be someone who might take advice but not automatically follow it so perhaps CJ had minimal influence either way.


It's interesting to slowly watch CJ transform over the years... I do wonder what other information he gets from his circle that influences him to get more and more bearish. A good prophet gives predictions, but not the whole story of how he came to them.
Edited by Rastus2, 19 Aug 2015, 12:40 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
19 Aug 2015, 12:40 AM
It's interesting to slowly watch CJ transform over the years... I do wonder what other information he gets from his circle that influences him to get more and more bearish. A good prophet gives predictions, but not the whole story of how he came to them.
I wouldn't call him bearish, at least not in the short term.

He hasn't predicted a crash. He thinks property has recently entered into bubble territory, but that the bubble will continue to grow for some time, until interest rates 'normalise' (his word).

He is hedging his bets really. If there is a crash he can point to all the articles where he warned about a bubble. If there isn't a crash he can point out that he never predicted a crash.

If Sydney prices keep growing at the their current rate for another couple of years, then I think you'd see him make a definite crash prediction (as would I).
Edited by Shadow, 19 Aug 2015, 09:35 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Glenn Stevens
Member Avatar


Shadow
19 Aug 2015, 09:28 AM
He is hedging his bets really. If there is a crash he can point to all the articles where he warned about a bubble. If there isn't a crash he can point out that he never predicted a crash.
I'm doing a similar thing myself. I'm warning the general public about the risks, but I'm not predicting any necessarily negative consequences.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Chris
Default APF Avatar


Glenn Stevens
19 Aug 2015, 09:56 AM
I'm doing a similar thing myself. I'm warning the general public about the risks, but I'm not predicting any necessarily negative consequences.
That's because your a sock, you opinion is only as valid as the person with their hand up you're hole.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


Chris
19 Aug 2015, 10:13 AM
That's because your a sock, you opinion is only as valid as the person with their hand up you're hole.
You're, not your.

Your, not you.

Your, not you're.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

All bubbles burst, first China, later Australia?
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
ZetaBoards gives you all the tools to create a successful discussion community.
Learn More · Register Now
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 2



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy