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Daily Iron Ore Price, Commodities and Precious Metals Update - August 2015; Output push at China steel mills seen lifting iron ore to one-month high
Topic Started: 6 Aug 2015, 10:16 AM (1,784 Views)
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Output push at China steel mills seen lifting iron ore to one-month high

August 6, 2015, Jasmine Ng

Steelmakers in China may be ramping up output before the government orders production cuts at some mills to ensure clean air in Beijing for a parade, according to UBS Group, which said the increase may be boosting iron ore.

Steel output in the world's top producer is set to be disrupted this month and in September as mills around Beijing are ordered to cut supply to ensure blue skies for the parade, which marks the end of World War II, as well as a sports event. Iron ore dropped to a six-year low below $US45 a metric ton in early July as Rio Tinto Group and Vale raised output into an oversupplied market, before rallying back into a bull market. UBS's Morgan said prices of about $US50 a ton are reasonable.

Ore with 62 per cent content in Qingdao entered the bull market last week, rebounding from the low of $US44.59 a dry ton on July 8, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. Prices rose 2.7 per cent to one-month high of $US56.78 on Wednesday. They're still 20 per cent lower this year.

China's leadership is scheduled to host the parade in Tiananmen Square on September 3 to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender. Before that, Beijing will host the world track and field championships from August 22-30.

As much as 6 million tons of steel production may be cut, more than was lost last year when similar curbs were used for a global summit, according to Mysteel Research's chief analyst Xu Xiangchun, who cited talks with policy makers and mills.

Iron ore and steel prices in China climbed in recent days. Iron ore futures advanced 2.9 per cent to close at 377 yuan ($US60.71) a ton in Dalian on Wednesday, the highest in a month, as spot rebar advanced for an eighth day to cap the longest rising streak since October.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/output-push-at-china-steel-mills-seen-lifting-iron-ore-to-onemonth-high-20150805-giskar.html
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Goldman says iron ore to slump 30pc on supply, steel outlook

August 18, 2015 - 6:18AM

Iron ore prices may tumble about 30 per cent over the next 18 months as supply expands while steel output falters, according to Goldman Sachs Group, which said the impact on the market from China's devaluation was a sideshow.

"Supply is likely to diverge further from demand," analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai wrote in a report. "Contrary to market consensus, we believe that peak-steel production will be followed by a contraction" in China, they wrote, sticking with price forecasts for the next four quarters.

Iron ore rebounded in the past five weeks from the lowest level since at least 2009 as steel prices advanced in China and shipments from the top exporters, Australia and Brazil, lagged behind expectations. China's government devalued the yuan last week, roiling commodities markets and spurring concern that import demand for dollar-denominated raw materials may drop.

"Arguably, the yuan devaluation and the recent supply disruptions are what we consider a sideshow for the iron ore market," the analysts said in the August 14 note. "Supply growth will resume in the short term."

Ore with 62 per cent delivered to Qingdao fell 0.1 per cent to $US56.66 a dry ton on Monday. The commodity rose 0.6 per cent last week to post a fifth straight climb, Metal Bulletin Ltd data showed. While prices hit the highest since July 1 on Thursday after blasts in the Chinese port of Tianjin, they're 20 per cent lower this year.

Iron ore was seen by Goldman averaging $US49 a ton this quarter, $US48 in the final three months of 2015, $US46 in the first quarter of next year and $US44 the following quarter, according to the August 14 report. That's unchanged from a July 20 note from the bank. The 2016 forecast of $US44 was also retained.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/goldman-says-iron-ore-to-slump-30pc-on-supply-steel-outlook-20150817-gj1aaz.html
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Perthite
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So Goldman is calling peak then a fall.

Damn I hate being mainstream.

Guess I will have to live with it for now.
Edited by Perthite, 18 Aug 2015, 09:54 AM.
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newjez
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Perthite
18 Aug 2015, 09:46 AM
So Goldman is calling peak then a fall.

Damn I hate being mainstream.

Guess I will have to live with it for now.
It's not exactly rocket science as Gina comes online just as China goes under.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Trollie
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Perthite
18 Aug 2015, 09:46 AM
So Goldman is calling peak then a fall.

Damn I hate being mainstream.

Guess I will have to live with it for now.
I guess even that broken clock gets it right twice a day :z:
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The Whole Truth
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Trollie
18 Aug 2015, 11:47 AM
I guess even that broken clock gets it right twice a day
Then I guess you're no broken clock timmy. You never get it right.
How's those mining shares going? :z:
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Trollie
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The Whole Truth
18 Aug 2015, 01:40 PM
Then I guess you're no broken clock timmy. You never get it right.
How's those mining shares going? :z:
I get a giggle out of you calling me timmy. You still have not figured it out.
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Iron ore and oil plunge as China sharemarket rout hits commodities

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newjez
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Shares I can right off as a blip.

This is looking serious.

http://www.barchart.com/futures/commodities/ITI
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Trollie
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newjez
25 Aug 2015, 11:59 AM

This is looking serious.
Your catch cry needs more zing to it.
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