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Kochie says the property boom is over, sell now at the peak
Topic Started: 27 Jul 2015, 08:43 AM (6,887 Views)
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van
5 Aug 2015, 06:57 PM
I am sure the FHB's will carry the market forward now that the property investors are not buying although minus first home buyers grants and baby bonuses might make it muted.

FHB's won't come back into the Market until homes are being sold at 2012 prices.

"Which was nothing more than the age-old game of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. The rules are simple: money taken from today's investors is used to pay off debts to yesterday's investors. Typically, these investors are lured by promises of exorbitant profits—50, even 100 percent. Often, they are coached to recruit more investors to enrich themselves further. The problem is that there is no actual investment going on; the only activity is the shuffling of money from new investors to old ones. Everything is fine until the scheme runs out of new investors and the whole house of cards comes tumbling down."

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/in-ponzi-we-trust-64016168/
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Trollie
28 Jul 2015, 11:58 AM
The Whole Truth
28 Jul 2015, 10:31 AM
No one wants to call a bust and be poked fun at.
You idiots know all about that one :lol
You should have got out before the perth market rolled over timmy, now you're a rat on a wheel, stuck with a huge debt in a deflationary depression.

"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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5 Aug 2015, 09:39 PM
money taken from today's investors is used to pay off debts to yesterday's investors. Typically, these investors are lured by promises of exorbitant profits—50, even 100 percent. Often, they are coached to recruit more investors to enrich themselves further.
That sums up the whole property investment scam, and explains why the Bulls here on APF constantly promote property as a great investment even in the face of falling rents and falling real prices.

But I have to cut them a little slack, the last 7 years have been very confusing here in Australia and it's not that obvious what a dangerous precipice property teeters on. Add to that the mental bias of those up to their eyeballs in IP debt and I can understand why they still promote property to anyone who will listen.

That doesn't make them right, just not totally culpable in the act of giving shit investment advice.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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The Whole Truth
6 Aug 2015, 08:12 AM
That sums up the whole property investment scam, and explains why the Bulls here on APF constantly promote property as a great investment even in the face of falling rents and falling real prices.

But I have to cut them a little slack, the last 7 years have been very confusing here in Australia and it's not that obvious what a dangerous precipice property teeters on. Add to that the mental bias of those up to their eyeballs in IP debt and I can understand why they still promote property to anyone who will listen.

That doesn't make them right, just not totally culpable in the act of giving shit investment advice.
The way I see it, $1,000,000 will either buy you a million dollar worth of land and bricks or a million dollar worth of booze, escorts, okey doke, and a daily trip to the pokies. It's a no brainer choice really.
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Jimbo
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5 Aug 2015, 09:45 PM
You should have got out before the perth market rolled over timmy, now you're a rat on a wheel, stuck with a huge debt in a deflationary depression.
As property requires leverage to get into it, the question is, how much more leverage do people have?

How much lower can interest rates go? What have two rate cuts done for Perth property prices? What has a massive devaluation in the AUD done for Perth property prices?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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precicely! Debt has a limit and the limit is the ability of borrowers to make the interest repayments. The mass uptake of IO loans, unheard or in property investment before the current cycle, is/was a last ditch desperation act predicated (at least in the minds of the people taking them out) on property prices doubling every 7 to 10 years. A smart person can be conned but they will exit as soon as the fact is apparent to them.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Loki
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The Whole Truth
28 Aug 2015, 08:06 PM
precicely! Debt has a limit and the limit is the ability of borrowers to make the interest repayments. The mass uptake of IO loans, unheard or in property investment before the current cycle, is/was a last ditch desperation act predicated (at least in the minds of the people taking them out) on property prices doubling every 7 to 10 years. A smart person can be conned but they will exit as soon as the fact is apparent to them.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/investor-loans-grow-at-twice-apras-limit-20150825-gj6xn5.html

Quote:
 
APRA has been monitoring growth rates since December. It wants banks to keep total investor loan growth at 10 per cent for 2015.

Corrupt or incompetent?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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herbie
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The Whole Truth
28 Aug 2015, 08:06 PM
precicely! Debt has a limit and the limit is the ability of borrowers to make the interest repayments. The mass uptake of IO loans, unheard or in property investment before the current cycle, is/was a last ditch desperation act predicated (at least in the minds of the people taking them out) on property prices doubling every 7 to 10 years. A smart person can be conned but they will exit as soon as the fact is apparent to them.
Well Jimbo is a trader. Switching between asset classes as he sees potential gain in doing so.

And relying on his ability to make good trader type calls. Which while that might come naturally (or learned) to him, or his enduring acumen re making same may be a figment of his imagination (or not), I know my own personal limitations well enough that I'll not try to emulate his said success.

But good luck to Jimbo regardless.

And as to you, I don't see much value in your preferred asset class - Gold. And see more inherent value in my preferred asset class - Land with housing sitting on it.

Which diff of fundamental opinion I doubt any ongoing debate is ever going to make us see eye to eye on.

But good luck to you anyway. And good luck to me too.

Regardless.


A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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goneaway
28 Aug 2015, 09:11 PM


And as to you, I don't see much value in your preferred asset class - Gold. And see more inherent value in my preferred asset class - Land with housing sitting on it.

Which diff of fundamental opinion I doubt any ongoing debate is ever going to make us see eye to eye on.

But good luck to you anyway. And good luck to me too.

Regardless.


O gold is not my preferred asset class, my home in the country is but that's not nearly as exciting as discussing gold here. No one here is interested in discussing the tax advantages of a rural olive farm, especially if you never prune or irrigate the trees ;) I just think gold is a good way to save money, gold and silver. I don't have a particular interest in the current price of it though I know the bulls here do (all short term focus ) , so I play along. If I thought for a minute the global economy could pull itself out of the shitpile it has found itself in I might think otherwise but I have no doubt we are doomed for decades ahead and it's quite possible government is going to go after every single productive asset on the books and tax the guts out of it to meet their social security obligations. Gold is a logical hedge to this, it isn't on the books.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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