Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3
Kochie says the property boom is over, sell now at the peak
Topic Started: 27 Jul 2015, 08:43 AM (6,886 Views)
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
The real estate market has had a great run but Kochie is now calling time on the housing boom

DAVID & LIBBY KOCH, July 23, 2015 7:47PM

PROPERTY has been on an incredible run in this country over the last decade, but we’re ready to go out on a limb and call time.

That doesn’t mean panic. And it doesn’t mean that property is a bubble that’s about to pop.

We just believe that the days of breakneck growth in capital city property prices are coming to an end… as we’ve seen in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide residential property prices can fall. The booms in Sydney and Melbourne are now running out of steam.

If you’re a property owner, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, we think it’s a good time to step back and evaluate what you want from your property over the next 10 years.

Because if you want to change homes in that time, now could be the best opportunity to sell. Here’s why.

Higher borrowing costs

The RBA has set the cash rate at a record low in an effort to stimulate economic growth, which means right now it’s as cheap as it’s ever been to borrow money and buy property.

But while that increases demand and therefore drives price growth in the short-term, it won’t last forever.

The majority of economists expect interest rates to increase from next year, and once they start rising it’s anyone’s guess how long we have before they return to their longer-term average of around 5 per cent. And that’s the official cash rate, which means bank loans upwards of 7 per cent for borrowers.

This sort of interest rate movement will very quickly soften demand for property and curb prices.

Tighter lending standards

While we don’t think there is a nationwide property bubble, Sydney and Melbourne are definitely looking overheated with prices increasing by 16 per cent and 10 per cent respectively in the last 12 months, according to the latest Core Logic RP Data figures.

In an effort to put the brakes on some of the manic buying we’re seeing in Australia’s two largest cities, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has demanded banks tighten lending standards and not increase their investor loan books by more than 10 per cent a year.

In response, many banks have reduced or removed the interest rate discounts available on investment loans and clamped down on loan to valuation ratios for investors.

Increased supply of housing

The building of new homes is at record levels, with ABS data showing $57.1 billion of new homes approved over the past year compared to $49.6 billion the previous year.

This building boom is positive news for the economy, with obvious benefits for industries tied to construction, and flow on benefits to business that can thrive around these new dwellings such as supermarkets and services.

But it’s also a sign that house prices may start to ease.

This could have a softening effect on rents. And if something’s making less money, it’s worth less, so that means lower property prices too.

So if you’re lucky enough to own a property that has appreciated during the recent boom and you intend changing houses in the next couple of years, now may be a good opportunity to think about bringing those plans forward. sell at the peak and take your time finding a replacement.

Read more: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/the-real-estate-market-has-had-a-great-run-but-kochie-is-now-calling-time-on-the-housing-boom/story-e6frg6n6-1227454391973
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
GloomBoomDoom
Member Avatar


http://sbtl.tv/baaaqvZ

:D
Edited by GloomBoomDoom, 27 Jul 2015, 10:35 AM.
MSE
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Kochie demonstrating what's going to happen to home borrowers:
Posted Image
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 28 Jul 2015, 09:57 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
The Whole Truth
Member Avatar


He makes a good case but he's being very conservative on the consequences. Understandably too. No one wants to call a bust and be poked fun at.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Trollie
Member Avatar


The Whole Truth
28 Jul 2015, 10:31 AM
No one wants to call a bust and be poked fun at.
You idiots know all about that one :lol
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

The Whole Truth
28 Jul 2015, 10:31 AM
He makes a good case but he's being very conservative on the consequences. Understandably too. No one wants to call a bust and be poked fun at.
I remember reading similar articles last year saying rates would be going up in 2015. Only movement we've had is down.

Kochie is conservative and I can guarantee he won't be selling his house any time soon.

He loves the stock market but not a fan of property and that's what comes out in this article.

Hope no one follows his advice.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Trollie
28 Jul 2015, 11:58 AM
You idiots know all about that one :lol
Says the iron ore bug lol
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Ex BP Golly
Member Avatar


Ray Hadley is flogging his Hills digs at the top of the market.

If your lucky, he'll throw in a couple of hundred portraits/ caricatures of himself.

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
John F. Kennedy
Default APF Avatar


The Whole Truth
28 Jul 2015, 10:31 AM
He makes a good case but he's being very conservative on the consequences. Understandably too. No one wants to call a bust and be poked fun at.
Huge number of auctions in near future. Even Andrew Wilson says that investors are trying to get out while they can ...
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
van
Member Avatar


I am sure the FHB's will carry the market forward now that the property investors are not buying although minus first home buyers grants and baby bonuses might make it muted.

FHB's won't come back into the Market until homes are being sold at 2012 prices.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create your own social network with a free forum.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy