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Rents now tanking in three capital cities. Who's next?
Topic Started: 24 Jul 2015, 06:18 PM (9,319 Views)
Blondie girl
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If you are suggesting I am in some sort of denial in what's going on the Perth rental market, you are wrong moron.

Not everyone is drowning financially.

(this is a reply to "tubby" stubby).
Edited by Blondie girl, 28 Jul 2015, 05:04 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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The Whole Truth
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:z:
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Guest
24 Jul 2015, 06:18 PM
housing is a manufactured good and will get cheaper in real terms.

To the point it is almost free.

Peter
Guest
24 Jul 2015, 06:18 PM
housing is a manufactured good and will get cheaper in real terms.

To the point it is almost free.

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 29 Jul 2015, 01:12 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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The Whole Truth
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There is absolutely NO land shortage in Australia, aside from land available in and around capital cities. In the future people will happily live outside of these toxic waste dumps and the prices of city land will fall and fall. Here is why.

As we transition from an oil based to renewable based economy the aging centralized infrastructure of water electricity and bitumen road networks which were built on cheap oil will give way to localized stand alone systems, as we are already seeing on many country properties. Tank water, stand alone solar, the growing of food by ones self for one's family. This cannot be achieved in the city since the room does not exist on small plots and the laws dictating you pay for services whether or not you use them makes it unpactical. Large centralized systems fail because the energy needed to maintain them is too great.

Conversely the beautiful rural lands ringing Australia and between the cities is easily accessible from the national Highway network. This land represents much greater value than the over dependant city land where every need must be transported in via gas guzzling trucks and massive power and water systems. Jobs are the only barrier, jobs and regional councils relaxing subdivision rules on large tracts of farmland around regional towns.

City jobs in many cases are superfluous in a low energy renewable future and many like building and home services can easily be transplanted. Retail jobs, the bulk of low wage employment in our cities can go online or simply vanish. As they are ready. Large migrations out of cities would simply speed this process up. Cities support high wages but the high wages are only needed to support a city lifestyle. Transport costs, high mortgages, high food and entertainment costs and the consumption of all manner of pointless consumer goods.

Our cities as useful as we view them, are doomed in a renewable future. On a basic level we simply will not have the oil base and cheap energy to maintain the vast road networks in them. Who would want to live in a city with crumbling potholed roads, or worse, a suburban city converted to dirt roads. Could you imagine the dust pollution? And this is only the tip of the iceberg...
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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K-town
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The Whole Truth
29 Jul 2015, 10:19 AM
There is absolutely NO land shortage in Australia, aside from land available in and around capital cities. In the future people will happily live outside of these toxic waste dumps and the prices of city land will fall and fall. Here is why.

As we transition from an oil based to renewable based economy the aging centralized infrastructure of water electricity and bitumen road networks which were built on cheap oil will give way to localized stand alone systems, as we are already seeing on many country properties. Tank water, stand alone solar, the growing of food by ones self for one's family. This cannot be achieved in the city since the room does not exist on small plots and the laws dictating you pay for services whether or not you use them makes it unpactical. Large centralized systems fail because the energy needed to maintain them is too great.

Conversely the beautiful rural lands ringing Australia and between the cities is easily accessible from the national Highway network. This land represents much greater value than the over dependant city land where every need must be transported in via gas guzzling trucks and massive power and water systems. Jobs are the only barrier, jobs and regional councils relaxing subdivision rules on large tracts of farmland around regional towns.

City jobs in many cases are superfluous in a low energy renewable future and many like building and home services can easily be transplanted. Retail jobs, the bulk of low wage employment in our cities can go online or simply vanish. As they are ready. Large migrations out of cities would simply speed this process up. Cities support high wages but the high wages are only needed to support a city lifestyle. Transport costs, high mortgages, high food and entertainment costs and the consumption of all manner of pointless consumer goods.

Our cities as useful as we view them, are doomed in a renewable future. On a basic level we simply will not have the oil base and cheap energy to maintain the vast road networks in them. Who would want to live in a city with crumbling potholed roads, or worse, a suburban city converted to dirt roads. Could you imagine the dust pollution? And this is only the tip of the iceberg...
Sounds great. Until you want to go to the footy, see a decent band, take the kids ice-skating, go to a top restaurant, have a beer in a pub where the only clientele isn't a front bar sparsely populated with societies outsiders.... then you need a city.
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stubby
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miw
28 Jul 2015, 05:00 PM
Rent, man. Rent. We are talking about the rental market.

By the time you work out the percentage of Brisbane people levered to energy and mining (5% or less) and the percentage of those who are impacted by the construction jobs finishing and have moved away (maybe 10% of that) and the proportion of those who actually rented instead of owned (maybe 20% of that) you are at 1/2 of 3/5 of 2% of fuck all.

It has had no impact on Brisbane rents. You can take it to the bank. Or at least its impact is lost in all the other noise.
My anecdotal dataset sez different (a cluster of renters in Indooro and Jindalee, and a cluster of owners in "greater Ipswich", who have been forced to move due to CSG retrenchment). But none of them rent in St. Lucia, so I accept your POV as well.

Note also that while many of these are fine mates, give-you-the-shirt-off-their-backs types, they're not necessarily financial geniuses. One has kept his 2-year-old HSV while downsizing out of his Indooro rental...

:lol :lol :lol

More seriously, there are marital problems as well with some, forcing moves on non-economic grounds. But the common denominator for almost all is the CSG bust.
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furry
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Not sure if this is just a blip but for the listings I'm tracking on the upper north shore (sydney), there has been a significant increase in the number of rentals in our price range (lower end) in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if it is just the 6monthly cycle of new tenancies that were taken out around xmas time, but the volume was around 18-23 before and is now over 30..... There hasn't been any change much in the sale listings.
Edited by furry, 29 Jul 2015, 01:11 PM.
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miw
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stubby
29 Jul 2015, 12:00 PM
My anecdotal dataset sez different (a cluster of renters in Indooro and Jindalee, and a cluster of owners in "greater Ipswich", who have been forced to move due to CSG retrenchment). But none of them rent in St. Lucia, so I accept your POV as well.

Note also that while many of these are fine mates, give-you-the-shirt-off-their-backs types, they're not necessarily financial geniuses. One has kept his 2-year-old HSV while downsizing out of his Indooro rental...

:lol :lol :lol

More seriously, there are marital problems as well with some, forcing moves on non-economic grounds. But the common denominator for almost all is the CSG bust.
Please don't get me wrong - I am most certainly not saying the CSG industry is unimpacted. It is obviously way down and still on the way down - as expected of course, although maybe the drillers did not expect drilling to go to zero, which it has. My brother is back driving dozers after being supervisor on the last rig from his company to get mothballed until Gladstone catches up and starts exporting gas in quantity.

In fact, CSG probably employed about 40,000 people in Qld at the peak, has halved to just under 20k now, and will probably halve again to about 10k in steady state. Dalby, Chinchilla and Roma are in the process of being gutted. Toowoomba seems not to be, or so far not to be. This despite the fact that people hopped onto the bus to get to most of the construction and drilling camps in the Surat basin in Toowoomba, I am told.

But even if that causes 5,000 families to leave Brisbane (which I seriously doubt!), that's only going to raise the rental vacancy rate by about 0.1%. And what about the people who lost their jobs out west who will be returning to the renter in Brisbane that is now a PPOR again?

As a LL am I worried about the downturn in energy prices? No way. At least not since I moved into my high-end apartment instead of renting it to execs from down south or overseas. (That market has definitely been hit because most of the execs who get sent to Brisbane seem to be in some way involved with the resources industries.)

Am I worried about all the new apartments coming on-stream in the CBD and the inner ring? Yes, somewhat. They don't compete with me directly since I have eschewed new luxury apartments, but they will bring the rents for the next notch up in standard down which will impact me to some extent.

furry
29 Jul 2015, 01:11 PM
Not sure if this is just a blip but for the listings I'm tracking on the upper north shore (sydney), there has been a significant increase in the number of rentals in our price range (lower end) in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if it is just the 6monthly cycle of new tenancies that were taken out around xmas time, but the volume was around 18-23 before and is now over 30..... There hasn't been any change much in the sale listings.
In Brisbane people do try to time their properties to come on the rental market in January and July. That's when people tend to be on the move because it is between school and uni semesters.
Edited by miw, 29 Jul 2015, 05:19 PM.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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stubby
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miw
29 Jul 2015, 05:17 PM
Please don't get me wrong - I am most certainly not saying the CSG industry is unimpacted. It is obviously way down and still on the way down - as expected of course, although maybe the drillers did not expect drilling to go to zero, which it has. My brother is back driving dozers after being supervisor on the last rig from his company to get mothballed until Gladstone catches up and starts exporting gas in quantity.

In fact, CSG probably employed about 40,000 people in Qld at the peak, has halved to just under 20k now, and will probably halve again to about 10k in steady state. Dalby, Chinchilla and Roma are in the process of being gutted. Toowoomba seems not to be, or so far not to be. This despite the fact that people hopped onto the bus to get to most of the construction and drilling camps in the Surat basin in Toowoomba, I am told.

But even if that causes 5,000 families to leave Brisbane (which I seriously doubt!), that's only going to raise the rental vacancy rate by about 0.1%. And what about the people who lost their jobs out west who will be returning to the renter in Brisbane that is now a PPOR again?

As a LL am I worried about the downturn in energy prices? No way. At least not since I moved into my high-end apartment instead of renting it to execs from down south or overseas. (That market has definitely been hit because most of the execs who get sent to Brisbane seem to be in some way involved with the resources industries.)

I never suggested that these people had (in general) left the SEQ market, whether as renters or owners. Most haven't, and most won't (they're all looking at seek.com for WA jobs, but finding little).

But all have had their incomes chopped in half, at best, and are reacting accordingly. The renters are moving fastest because they have to, while (again, averaging here) the owners seem to be the ones with the sudden marital problems, hanging on to their properties so far, but in dire straits.

Overall, I find it difficult to believe that an income drop in the high 10s of thousands, for 40 thousand workers, many of whom were FIFO or DIDO, would fail to impact the Brisbane economy. Especially so as the CSG collapse has coincided with the coal collapse -- another 12,000 QLD layoffs, though less FIFO/DIDO-dependent.
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miw
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stubby
29 Jul 2015, 06:44 PM
I never suggested that these people had (in general) left the SEQ market, whether as renters or owners. Most haven't, and most won't (they're all looking at seek.com for WA jobs, but finding little).

But all have had their incomes chopped in half, at best, and are reacting accordingly. The renters are moving fastest because they have to, while (again, averaging here) the owners seem to be the ones with the sudden marital problems, hanging on to their properties so far, but in dire straits.

Overall, I find it difficult to believe that an income drop in the high 10s of thousands, for 40 thousand workers, many of whom were FIFO or DIDO, would fail to impact the Brisbane economy. Especially so as the CSG collapse has coincided with the coal collapse -- another 12,000 QLD layoffs, though less FIFO/DIDO-dependent.
We'll just have to agree to disagree. Sure there is impact on the high end rentals, but I just don't think CSG and coal are a big enough factor in Brisbane's economy to have any impact on the normal rental market whether it be for houses or apartments. The boom sure as hell didn't drive rents (or even house prices for that matter) up, so things getting back to normal ain't going to bring them down.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
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