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Gold Smash Leads to Surge in Demand For Coins, Bars Around World; Another buying window. Property investors need not apply
Topic Started: 24 Jul 2015, 11:56 AM (13,585 Views)
Terry
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Andrew Judd
15 Aug 2015, 06:29 AM
Terry, way too often you mistake a mistake and then pretend it does not matter and go for the supposedly intelligent one liner.

Earlier, before i realised you were catweasel, l i got the impression you were the same person using the name that sounded like something Giberah Maktab. It was the same kind of intelligent sounding nonesense.

I think there is a simple truth here. While you keep pretending you are a superior being, people are going to pick on you and make fun of you. Whereas when you behave like an ordinary mortal, and build a sucessful track record, people here are going to be more interested in what you say.
Google "Australia property investment.". There's no shortage of books describing "successful track records" and letting you in on the secrets. If that's what you want, world is your oyster Sonny Jim.
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Rastus2
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ahh, revisionist/Pseudohistory ... That is not how it played out at all..


yawn... bored with this now.

I did laugh at this however

"Nominal Sydney prices actually rose 19% from 2003 to 2011. Leveraged at a typical 80% LVR, this is a return of 95% (well above inflation)."

You still don't see how twisted this claim is, do you ?


Posted Image


Using leverage to prove an asset did 'well above inflation' when an inflation adjusted chart is handed to you is just the peak of foolishness and straw grasping ...

You have to use leverage because simple price rises do not deliver your desired outcome :re: You also have to ignore the cost of that leverage against your claimed profit :re:


If I leveraged a gold purchase @ 99% LVR for enough and gold went up 10 % in a week , what have I proven ? That gold beats all other assets ? Nope... just that leverage exagurates wins and losses :re:
Edited by Rastus2, 15 Aug 2015, 05:51 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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The Whole Truth
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hidflect
15 Aug 2015, 01:31 AM
As I posted in the other thread on gold:

Gold is a fiat commodity backed by nothing except its shininess. In a sophisticated world where cash transactions are becoming frictionless... dribble dribble dribble
Look suicide is illegal in this country, but if you were to drive your car really fast up to a concrete wall, who's to know what really happened?
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Rastus2
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hidflect
15 Aug 2015, 01:31 AM
As I posted in the other thread on gold:

Gold is a fiat commodity backed by nothing except its shininess. In a sophisticated world where cash transactions are becoming frictionless, it's left to the unsophisticated investor to think it's a good deal. Many rural Indians hold gold because the banking system won't deal with them. They have no choice. For the Chinese, gold hoarding is based on ignorance, superstition and cultural heritage. These aren't good arguments to hold a non-yielding "asset". Ask any investor in pearls.

I note your comments and would agree if it were not for humans in the equation.

What drives most of the profits ?... ignore profits, losses, and other financial terms..

Most large movements in asset prices are driven by Fear and Greed.

Until humans learn to not fear and not to be greedy, assets will rise and fall without 100% correlation to the logic you cite.



You have to remember, it is the "sophisticated world where cash transactions are becoming frictionless" that gave us the GFC... we are still trying to recover from that particular lubricant to fear and greed.

The frictionless nature simply makes it easier for money to flow... into and out of an asset class.

If I want to buy $100,000 pork bellies... I can do it in seconds... sell them, ditto..

The same for gold, oil, commercial or residential based shares.

Fear and Greed will dictate where the money flows, sophisticated people will use it to trick those who think they are sophisticated out of their money.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
15 Aug 2015, 03:18 PM
"Nominal Sydney prices actually rose 19% from 2003 to 2011. Leveraged at a typical 80% LVR, this is a return of 95% (well above inflation)."

You still don't see how twisted this claim is, do you ?
No, it's a fact - check the ABS if you need to verify.

Quote:
 
You also have to ignore the cost of that leverage against your claimed profit
Cost of leverage (mortgage repayments) are paid by the tenants (rent).

Quote:
 
If I leveraged a gold purchase @ 99% LVR
If you did that from 2009 to today the leverage would have magnified your losses, since the nominal price of gold has fallen.

And you didn't answer my question... why did you think I was comparing a 10-year span to a 4-year span? Did you just make another mistake?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Aug 2015, 09:02 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Aug 2015, 09:00 PM
No, it's a fact - check the ABS if you need to verify.


Cost of leverage (mortgage repayments) are paid by the tenants (rent).


If you did that from 2009 to today the leverage would have magnified your losses, since the nominal price of gold has fallen.

And you didn't answer my question... why did you think I was comparing a 10-year span to a 4-year span? Did you just make another mistake?
Oh, so it's a fact that if the inflation adjusted price stays the same (or drops) then leveraging against it give more profits... you'll have to publish that finding.


Posted Image

2003 peak to 2011 peak from the chart I posted shows a real house price drop.
Either the abs cited chart is wrong, or you are.

I think I will go with the chart.

Indeed, you have just demonstrated how people leveraged their real losses in property in that period between peaks.. well done


Let's sit back and watch the twisting games begin.



Edited by Rastus2, 15 Aug 2015, 09:44 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
15 Aug 2015, 09:41 PM
Oh, so it's a fact that if the inflation adjusted price stays the same (or drops) then leveraging against it give more profits... you'll have to publish that finding.
If the nominal price rises, which Sydney property did from 2003-2011 (by 19%) then leveraging increases the profits.

Don't forget that inflation works in favour of leveraged investors by reducing the real value of the loan.

Now... why did you think I was comparing a 10-year span to a 4-year span? Did you just make another mistake?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Aug 2015, 09:45 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Aug 2015, 09:44 PM


If the nominal price rises, which Sydney property did from 2003-2011 (by 19%) then leveraging increases the profits.

Don't forget that inflation works in favour of leveraged investors by reducing the real value of the loan.

Now... why did you think I was comparing a 10-year span to a 4-year span? Did you just make another mistake?

Thanks for being drawn on that fact in that period..

So what you are saying is anyone who bought gold on leverage of 80% in 2003 would have easily beaten the property owners who did not triple their returns nominally ?.. ok, thanks glad we agree property owners were the big losers in that 8 years.


As for your other question..
Are you saying there was no 10 year span cited ?
Edited by Rastus2, 15 Aug 2015, 10:02 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Jimbo
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Rastus2
15 Aug 2015, 05:56 PM
Most large movements in asset prices are driven by Fear and Greed.

Spot on.

The price of a utility item is driven by supply/demand.

The price of an investment is driven by fear and greed.

Black and white and 2 + 2 = 4 until a utility item becomes an investment vehicle.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
15 Aug 2015, 09:47 PM
So what you are saying is anyone who bought gold on leverage of 80% in 2003 would have easily beaten the property owners who did not triple their returns nominally ?.. ok, thanks glad we agree property owners were the big losers in that 8 years
Yes, gold massively outperformed Sydney property from 2003-2011. In fact Sydney house prices fell in real terms over that period, while gold had a massive bull run. However the gold bull ended in 2012, and now gold has fallen below its 2009 value.

Quote:
 
As for your other question..
Are you saying there was no 10 year span cited ?
I'm asking why you accused me of comparing a 10-year period with a 4-year period. Are you able to explain this, or was it just another error on your part?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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