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Gold Smash Leads to Surge in Demand For Coins, Bars Around World; Another buying window. Property investors need not apply
Topic Started: 24 Jul 2015, 11:56 AM (13,586 Views)
Terry
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Andrew Judd
14 Aug 2015, 06:44 PM
clear as mud so far
Is that too abstract?
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Rastus2
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 04:52 PM
More abuse and ad hominems?

I'll remind you of the facts I posted. And the Sydney dates were chosen by yourself, so I'm not sure why you're accusing me of 'cherry picking'...

Between 2003 and 2011 (the dates you selected) Sydney property performed better than gold has done since 2009, because...

1. Nominal Sydney prices actually rose 19% from 2003 to 2011. Leveraged at a typical 80% LVR, this is a return of 95% (well above inflation).
2. Gold has FALLEN in both real terms and nominal terms from 2009 until today
3. Gold provided no income / yield during that period, whereas property provided rental income

Let's see if you can respond in a more mature manner this time.
Think again, there is o abuse, or ad hominems, just someone who is unable to take any criticism without crying foul.

If you want to use my dates, use them for both asset classes... don't try to use a 10 year span against a 4 year one and claim it's fair because I happened to use one date range :re:

Perhaps I was too generous in my assumptions of your capacity to understand what a level playing fI eld is... you constantly demonstrate an inability to play on one.
The Whole Truth
14 Aug 2015, 06:50 PM
10 years during which he property markets in the other capitals doubled in price!
10 years over which the stock market doubled in price.
10 years over which Gold prices Tripled in price.

Sydney RE has been a complete 10 year Fail for all those investors who bought in. 10 years of lost profits they will never recoup. And the recent gains? Ascribe half of them to expensive renovation sales and half to a speculator frenzy that is about as sustainable as an erection in a massage parlor during a police raid.
Why else do you think shady wants to ckmlarem10, years to 4 years ?

:D
Edited by Rastus2, 14 Aug 2015, 09:06 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Trollie
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Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 09:04 PM
If you want to use my dates
No one wants to use your cherry picked dates that end in 2011, that's the point.

I guess you guys want to try relive the glory days when you thought you had a chance.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 09:04 PM
If you want to use my dates, use them for both asset classes... don't try to use a 10 year span against a 4 year one and claim it's fair
Good advice. I mentioned that gold had fallen in nominal terms since 2009 (six years).

You responded to say Sydney was flat in real terms between 2003 and 2011 (eight years).

If you want to use my dates, use them for both asset classes.

Quote:
 
don't try to use a 10 year span against a 4 year one
I didn't. No 10-year or 4-year spans were mentioned. I originally mentioned a 6-year span. You responded by comparing it to a different 8-year span.

Quote:
 
shady wants to ckmlarem10
Yeah, I do that a lot. :wak:
Edited by Shadow, 14 Aug 2015, 09:54 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
14 Aug 2015, 09:51 PM
Rabbit, rabbit, rabbit


My point remains, All asset classes have flat periods.. fact.

Droning on and on about how bad gold is compared to property is bad enough...

Watching you play the usd gold price instead of aud, or cherry pick a specific period to make yourself feel better is just sad... you are fooling no one.





Edited by Rastus2, 15 Aug 2015, 12:01 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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The Whole Truth
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No one but himself. Houses had their day, a 40 year or more bull market and now they are overbought like never in history. Gold on the other hand was in a 20 year bear market and as anyone with half a brain knows, it's the best asset to hold when we move into rampant inflation or deflation. We had the inflation of the 1970's and 2000's when gold boomed and now we're entering the long winter of deflation. Commercial RE and House prices for the past 7 years prove that beyond doubt.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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hidflect
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As I posted in the other thread on gold:

Gold is a fiat commodity backed by nothing except its shininess. In a sophisticated world where cash transactions are becoming frictionless, it's left to the unsophisticated investor to think it's a good deal. Many rural Indians hold gold because the banking system won't deal with them. They have no choice. For the Chinese, gold hoarding is based on ignorance, superstition and cultural heritage. These aren't good arguments to hold a non-yielding "asset". Ask any investor in pearls.
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Rastus2
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hidflect
15 Aug 2015, 01:31 AM
As I posted in the other thread on gold:

Gold is a fiat commodity backed by nothing except its shininess. In a sophisticated world where cash transactions are becoming frictionless, it's left to the unsophisticated investor to think it's a good deal. Many rural Indians hold gold because the banking system won't deal with them. They have no choice. For the Chinese, gold hoarding is based on ignorance, superstition and cultural heritage. These aren't good arguments to hold a non-yielding "asset". Ask any investor in pearls.
Ok, let me ask you...

Do you have any insurance on your property ?

Do you consider that a waste ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Andrew Judd
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Terry
14 Aug 2015, 06:50 PM
Is that too abstract?
Terry, way too often you mistake a mistake and then pretend it does not matter and go for the supposedly intelligent one liner.

Earlier, before i realised you were catweasel, l i got the impression you were the same person using the name that sounded like something Giberah Maktab. It was the same kind of intelligent sounding nonesense.

I think there is a simple truth here. While you keep pretending you are a superior being, people are going to pick on you and make fun of you. Whereas when you behave like an ordinary mortal, and build a sucessful track record, people here are going to be more interested in what you say.
Edited by Andrew Judd, 15 Aug 2015, 06:32 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
14 Aug 2015, 10:04 PM
My point remains, All asset classes have flat periods.. fact.
I didn't disagree with that, but that wasn't the only 'point' you made.

I showed that gold has fallen in nominal terms since 2009 (a 6-year span). You responded with a claim that Sydney 2003-2011 was the same. I then showed that Sydney rose 19% over that period, while also providing income/yield. You were upset that I had debunked your example, so you hurled ad hominems and accused me of comparing a 10-year span with a 4-year span, when all I actually did was debunk the 8-year span that you introduced.

Why did you think I was comparing a 10-year span to a 4-year span anyway? Was it just another mistake?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Aug 2015, 08:17 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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