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Sydney NSW has fastest-growing economy in Australia. Low rates doing what they're supposed to.; Low interest rates and falling iron ore prices create increasingly favourable conditions for the eastern states
Topic Started: 20 Jul 2015, 09:41 AM (5,736 Views)
Loki
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herbie
10 Sep 2015, 07:43 PM
Hope? What will be will be.
So .... you are also a no-hoper then?
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But what I do have for now at least, is a debt free humble little hovel, 3 debt free IPs (albeit only shitty little SEQ ones), $850K in cash (even though they are only grotty grubby little Oz bucks), very very very minimal bullion exposure, no stocks or bonds exposure. And no debt of any sort - Except the moral one I personally feel to family of course. Plus the ability to live a pretty frugal lifestyle quite contentedly.

Oh, and reasonably good health - For now anyway ... :)

And even a few damn good long term friends.

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Geez - You're getting me all positive feeling here Loki! ... :D
I'm Dr. Feelgood.

Chris
10 Sep 2015, 07:29 PM
Loki, it appears Herb has been quite successful fishing in your pond. Just because you have bait thrown at you doesn't mean you have to swollen each one hook, line and sinker.
I thought we had some good vibes going.
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Sydney 4th world? Because of roadworks?
Something world anyway. I've lived in quite a few countries, I've never been kept up until 3AM by concrete saws and jackhammers. I don't know anywhere where else in the world that does that, but maybe in Cambodia?
The definitions of "first world", "developed world" are multiple and have varied a lot over time. There used to be a definition of "advanced economy" that measured the development of 5 key post-industrial capabilities.
1. Aerospace
2. Semiconductors
3. Advanced materials (Silicon wafer foundries, advanced batteries)
4. Telecommunications (telephony and internet)
5. Robotics

Australia has none of 1,2,3 or 5. Since the Catholic Sky-God Party got into power, 4 has been going backwards in global terms. There was a couple of guys in Melbourne who developed a new type of robotics, but could not get funded and moved to California.

The only two categories Australia scores high on are life expectancy and political participation (because of compulsory voting). We score low on air and water quality (like third-world countries), and our current high standard of living was paid for by the mining boom, now going into reverse.
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You need to base your stance in fact or common sense and leave out the irrational/abusive hyperbole statements or else you are in danger of looking like another bull sock like Moops.
Isn't John Frum moops?
Edited by Loki, 10 Sep 2015, 11:42 PM.


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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herbie
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Loki
10 Sep 2015, 11:22 PM
I thought we had some good vibes going.
I was feeling the luv? - Well compared to lots anyway ... :)

You surely can be such a party pooper sometimes Chris - :D
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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economist
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Chris
7 Sep 2015, 05:49 PM
The strong economic growth is solely based on speculative asset price growth, derived from and driven by cheap and easy credit. Something that you fail to see.

Here's hoping your buy, draw off equity, buy draw off equity, buy, draw off equity, buy strategy pays off for us all, otherwise the proceeding recession will last 5-7 yrs.
Try at least 20- 30 years...ask japan.
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Sydney Revival Shows a Model to Cope With China-Led Slowdown

Michael Heath, September 29, 2015

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Sydney is starting to sparkle again.

A decade and a half after the glow of the 2000 Olympics faded, the city is returning to its preeminent position in Australia’s economy as other areas struggle with the end of a China-led mining boom. As the country’s newly installed prime minister and treasurer begin formulating their program, the economic model forged by a fellow Liberal Party leader offers a template.

New South Wales Premier Mike Baird, an affable former banker at HSBC Holdings Plc and Deutsche Bank AG, is plowing funds from public-asset sales into urgently needed roads and railways in a city whose congestion now ranks alongside New York’s.

“Baird has created good economic conditions that underpinned confidence, and the doors to reform opened,” said Stephen Walters, chief Australia economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney and a former treasury official of Western Australia, the mining state that previously drove the nation’s growth. “He’s made his own luck through the combination of being a very good communicator with solid policies. It’s a recipe that could work well at the national level.”

With the strongest jobs growth and the lowest state unemployment rate in Australia, and the fastest-rising retail sales and most rapidly expanding economy in the country, Sydney and New South Wales are riding high under 47-year-old Baird.

In contrast, national unemployment is near the worst in 13 years, growth has been less than its long-term average for six of the past seven years and wage gains are at recessionary levels. While Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison have little time to make inroads into those challenges before an election due within 12 months, a credible reform program could help them craft a fresh narrative.

Baird won re-election in March campaigning on plans to raise A$20 billion ($14 billion) from sales of electricity assets to fund railways, roads, schools and hospitals. At a national level, infrastructure remains poor: Aussies taking a Sydney-to-Melbourne train trundle along for 11 hours -- about the same as it took their grandparents.

Baird, who was rated as Australia’s most popular politician in a Newspoll Friday, was able to successfully sell privatization to voters even though a majority of them were against the plan three weeks before the state election. His success was at odds with fellow conservative premier in Queensland, Campbell Newman, who two months earlier campaigned on a similar platform only to be thrown out of office after just one term.

“Baird’s authentic and doesn’t take himself too seriously,” said Andrew Hughes, a lecturer on political marketing at Australian National University. “That builds trust with the public and helps them understand his story and what he’s trying to do with services like health and roads and infrastructure.”

Baird’s major drive has been infrastructure to cope with Sydney’s rising population. His infrastructure investment program includes A$30 billion for new motorways and rail projects in Sydney along with A$8 billion for schools and hospitals. Baird’s office declined a request for an interview to discuss the premier’s development model.

Baird on Monday announced plans to sell leases on a number of harborside sites and committed to using A$200 million of the proceeds to upgrade the city’s central ferry terminal.

At a national level, Turnbull will convene a summit of business, community and union leaders on Thursday, Oct. 1, to discuss policies that increase competitiveness and grow the economy.

The meeting will help the government “work towards a practical set of reforms that will help to create jobs, drive innovation and stimulate growth,” the new prime minister said in a statement Tuesday.

Turnbull’s government is due to deliver its mid-year budget update in December and Treasurer Morrison has said he is focused on developing domestic policy and plans to skip international events.

Baird has been helped by dynamics beyond his control. The national slowdown spurred the central bank to cut interest rates to a record low, propelling Sydney’s housing market and bringing windfall revenue to the state budget. Rising property values have also encouraged household spending.

While no state premier has gone on to become prime minister since World War II, Baird has entered the national reform debate, advocating an increase in the goods and services tax to 15 percent from 10 percent to pay for rising costs in areas such health and aged care.

Baird has faced criticism-- such as when he oversaw the eviction of impoverished residents from state housing near Sydney’s harbor to cash in on the property boom. Yet his political charm has limited the impact of his critics and kept the public’s focus on his championing of both public and private projects.

Last month, he opened the Barangaroo harborside park created from industrial wasteland, which is adjacent to a planned casino and six-star hotel project led by billionaire James Packer that is forecast to create more than 1,200 jobs.

Baird opened the park with former Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating, and then lured the famously combative 71-year-old into an interview on his Facebook page. He asked about the secret to political leadership.

“Imagination, fantasy, dreaming,” Keating said. Baird then teased the former Labor prime minister, saying, “That’s good. Dreams come true. So how far away am I from getting your vote?” Keating didn’t miss a beat. “You’d have to dream a bit longer, Mike. But I do like you, you know that.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/sydney-revival-shows-a-model-for-coping-with-china-led-slowdown
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The Whole Truth
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Shadow
20 Jul 2015, 01:47 PM
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falling iron ore prices create increasingly favourable conditions for the eastern states
Something bears like Ted consistently fail to comprehend, despite it being explained to them repeatedly.
Favourable? No, the other states economies have simply collapsed in comparison

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It says rising property prices in Sydney have boosted household wealth and consumer confidence, and helped retail turnover to grow at the fastest rate of any state.


In other words ( to state the obvious) NSW is the best of a bad bunch due entirely to a speculative bubble in property. Hardly sustainable and certainly nothing to brag about.
"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." John Stuart Mill
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Chart: NSW is powering Australian economic growth

David Scutt Today at 10:01 AM 33

The ANZ released the third edition of its Australian “Stateometer” today, an alternate composite gauge on economic performance across Australia’s states and territories based on 16 monthly economic indicators that cover labour market conditions, household and business activity, and prices.

According to the ANZ, the index is timelier than other indicators of economic performance, such as GDP, which are released quarterly for Australia’s states and territories. Essentially the Statometer reveals how the economies of Australia’s states and territories are performing compared to their historic long-term averages, based off economic data received over the past three months.

As the chart below reveals, NSW – Australia’s most populous state and largest in terms of overall economic output – is putting the other states and territories to shame at present.

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On the back of residential construction boom, the state’s economy is now growing at an above-trend pace compared to historic norms. Not only that, economic activity is continuing to accelerate.

Victoria is the only other state growing at both an above-trend rate and accelerating, albeit at a far slower pace than its neighbour to the north.

The other states and territories are growing at rate below their historic averages with activity in South Australia, Western Australia and the ACT all decelerating, based on recent economic data. While they are now beginning to accelerate, the other mining states and territories – Queensland and the Northern Territory – continue to underperform compared to their long-run averages.

While New South Wales and Victoria are flying high at present, as communicated by the RBA in its semiannual financial stability review released last Friday, the huge uplift in highrise residential construction is creating risks of an oversupply in inner city markets. While the RBA see only a risk of a supply glut in Melbourne and Brisbane at present, it is clear that risks of a similar scenario forming in Sydney are also building.

Should the residential housing construction boom stumble, not only will New South Wales and Victoria come back to the pack when it comes to the ANZ’s Stateometer, it will also drag on national economic growth given the sheer size of the two economies.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-nsw-is-powering-australian-economic-growth-2015-10
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Terry
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Similar to post-bubble Japan: Massive construction in Tokyo and Osaka.
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Elastic
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Remarkable that they are handing the accolades to Mike Baird for the investor led housing boom in Sydney.
I'm sure he is happy to take the credit but he is in the right place at the right time.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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John Frum
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Elastic
21 Oct 2015, 10:06 PM
Remarkable that they are handing the accolades to Mike Baird for the investor led housing boom in Sydney.
I'm sure he is happy to take the credit but he is in the right place at the right time.

The good times appear to be peaking for I.T. contractors in the retail banking space. Contracts not getting renewed, those that remain are being asked to take a haircut on their rate. Enforced xmas break period getting extended.

One swallow does not a summer make, but you can't help feeling the belt tightener is ratcheting up a notch or two.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Sydney skyline gets shake-up as towers face wrecking ball for new metro stations
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