Not one annual rate reached $3 - you are off on a fantasy. You have missed the boat Jimbo the pound has almost returned to its long term levels.
Who was talking about annual rates? Nobody cares about the average rate in any year. I stated that the Pound traded between $2.50 & $3.00 before the GFC. It did.
Do you get the average rate when you transact or do you get the rate on the day?.
Quote:
Hoofarted tried to bullshit you- telling you the historical value was $2.5 over 20 years. Why do you listen to dishonest posters like that ?
No, he disagreed with your claim that the long term average was $1.90 and stated that it was nearer $2.50. He was more correct than you.
Quote:
How could it possibly go to its highest historical value when the interest rate for pounds is 1/4 of that for AUD. I think you are mad on this one.
I never said anything about the Pound returning to its historical highest value? I stated that I am aiming for $1.98 having bought for $1.9050.
BTW, you are an idiot woman. The disparity between the RBA and BoE base rates is already priced in.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Who was talking about annual rates? Nobody cares about the average rate in any year. I stated that the Pound traded between $2.50 & $3.00 before the GFC. It did.
Do you get the average rate when you transact or do you get the rate on the day?.
No, he disagreed with your claim that the long term average was $1.90 and stated that it was nearer $2.50. He was more correct than you.
I never said anything about the Pound returning to its historical highest value? I stated that I am aiming for $1.98 having bought for $1.9050.
BTW, you are an idiot woman. The disparity between the RBA and BoE base rates is already priced in.
Good call Jimbo, you are already up. Proof yet again (as if we needed any more) that Skamy is an idiot.
I don't do short term currency trades, but cudos for accurately picking it, and I believe that it was a well researched trade with the odds stacked in your favour.
I've long called for the AUD to drop against the USD and GBP, but timing is not my forte. When I am confident I am normally happy to get in even a year or two early and wait out the inevitable market forces (this is normally on the stockmarket). I also tend to go for bigger movements, over a longer period of time. I lived in the UK for a couple of years a while back, made good money while there, the pound was around 1.6Aud when I headed home. I knew it would correct, and correct big time, but became impatient and transferred the funds across at 1.8 around 18 months later. Knowing full well that the AUD would continue to weaken against the pound over time, I think it will still revert to the 2.2 - 2.5 range over the next few years. Recently sold my nst shares for a good profit around 2.24 and moved the funds into tbr. Wasn't an easy decision as nst has been a great company to have money in, and tbr isn't very liquid. However tbr is undoubtedly better value, trading well below its asset backing, and the asset backing is solid gold. Provides downside protection with still huge upside potential. NST probably has even greater upside potential due to its active management, however the downside has now become a factor with NST and the huge share price appreciation.
Jimbo, well played, now the trick, when to exit, I see you have 1.98 (unsure where that figure came from), assuming it trades there, why would you exit, should you actually be adding to the position?. If it gets to 1.97 and then comes back where do you exit. Just interested.
Jimbo, well played, now the trick, when to exit, I see you have 1.98 (unsure where that figure came from), assuming it trades there, why would you exit, should you actually be adding to the position?. If it gets to 1.97 and then comes back where do you exit. Just interested.
$1.98 was my target because that is where we were a few months or so ago. The downward pressure on the Pound has all been due to the election uncertainty. Also, in that time, the RBA has cut rates.
I won't be looking just at the rate to decide when I exit, I will be looking at the election results. at the moment, it is going the right way for my trade.
propertymogul
8 May 2015, 12:13 PM
I don't do short term currency trades, but cudos for accurately picking it, and I believe that it was a well researched trade with the odds stacked in your favour.
I've long called for the AUD to drop against the USD and GBP, but timing is not my forte. When I am confident I am normally happy to get in even a year or two early and wait out the inevitable market forces (this is normally on the stockmarket). I also tend to go for bigger movements, over a longer period of time.
I have done this a couple of times in the past where I can foresee the outcome of an election. Not that I have special powers or anything.
The last UK general election saw the Pound get hammered and so did the Scottish referendum. Both times, the Pound recovered afterwards as things settled down.
This election is fairly predictable because the SNP have polled strongly in Scotland which is a traditional Labour heartland.
Labour can't win without the Scottish vote and Ed Milliband (Labour leader) has ruled out the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition.
The logical outcome is a Conservative minority win (enough to form another coalition).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
$1.98 was my target because that is where we were a few months or so ago. The downward pressure on the Pound has all been due to the election uncertainty. Also, in that time, the RBA has cut rates.
I won't be looking just at the rate to decide when I exit, I will be looking at the election results. at the moment, it is going the right way for my trade.
I have done this a couple of times in the past where I can foresee the outcome of an election. Not that I have special powers or anything.
The last UK general election saw the Pound get hammered and so did the Scottish referendum. Both times, the Pound recovered afterwards as things settled down.
This election is fairly predictable because the SNP have polled strongly in Scotland which is a traditional Labour heartland.
Labour can't win without the Scottish vote and Ed Milliband (Labour leader) has ruled out the possibility of a Labour/SNP coalition.
The logical outcome is a Conservative minority win (enough to form another coalition).
This effectively means labour can never win again. Once this sinks in, this should produce a very good response in the pound. My only decision is whether to hold cash or shares in British companies. Utilities should boom tomorrow.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
This effectively means labour can never win again. Once this sinks in, this should produce a very good response in the pound. My only decision is whether to hold cash or shares in British companies. Utilities should boom tomorrow.
Labour can win again because the SNP vote may well come back to bite the Scottish on the arse.
The SNP were hoping to hold the balance of power in a Labour minority coalition.
But now they will have to live under Tory rule.
SuburbanBoy
8 May 2015, 12:20 PM
Jimbo, well played, now the trick, when to exit, I see you have 1.98 (unsure where that figure came from), assuming it trades there, why would you exit, should you actually be adding to the position?. If it gets to 1.97 and then comes back where do you exit. Just interested.
I've just hedged half of my outlay and quit at $1.9627.
I will leave the other half to ride out the storm.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Scotland will leave, slowly, and the UK will become a power house economy. I'd guess you will be looking at a 2.2:1 by year end. Or better.
I think the SNP will go for another independence vote. That has always been their stated intention and now they are in a position of power, they will use that power to make some deals.
I am not so sure about the long term outlook for the Pound. Maybe $2.00 to $2.20 by year end is not far off the mark.
The one thing that could hurt the Pound is the Tories promise to hold a referendum on EU membership.
That will be when I do my next trade.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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