China's rise to power in the last 10 years is nothing more than money printing gone berserk.
...
Anybody who believes that a low cost, low margin manufacturing country will rise to take on the world is a fool.
Real growth happens with real income, productivity, and technological gains. China doesn't have the preconditions. All they have is balance of payment surplus from slave labor low-cost manufacturing which they use to mask their money printing adventures.
The communist party has no legitimacy and is gasping for air. They hinged their legitimacy on growth and jobs, which are evaporating. They are in for interesting times.
A senior banking friend I have in Tokyo (he said, boasting) has not only completely confirmed the opinion that China is toast but goes further to say all his colleagues in his institution and others completely concur. They are all just politely waiting for the country to fall over not wishing to instigate anything peremptorily for political reasons. And I suppose, because there's no safe profit to be had in destabilizing China. But in the meantime, they are not putting one thin dime in and have worked furiously to close out any exposure they have. He thinks that since China only consumes 2% of external global finished goods it won't have that much effect on the developed economy...
But in the meantime, they are not putting one thin dime in and have worked furiously to close out any exposure they have.
The Donald is leading the polls and he's unequivocal about going back to 1930's style protectionism.
Exact quote to Chinese: "Listen you motherfuckers, we're gonna tax you 25%", and I bet there are a few American executives contemplating pulling out Amercian factories from China. Or at least, they have a contingency plan to reset manufacturing back to USA.
Now — with a recent currency devaluation, flailing stock market indexes, debt at 280% of gross domestic product, and manufacturing data flashing 2009 numbers — it looks as if his China call was a prescient one.
China may not grow by 7% or 8% a year, but what they have done is grown by 7% or 8% a year for quite a few years.
They have pulled of a great coup in reality.
They have built a 21st century infrastructure with modern cities, freeways and railway networks, ports.
All in 15 years or so and all financed by selling us cheap shit that we used to make before they started making it cheaper.
To keep themselves afloat for a while, they have lots of US and Euro paper. They also own a lot of our hard assets as well (factories, farmland, residential property).
Chinas slowdown is not a massive problem for China.
It is a massive problem for everybody else.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
China may not grow by 7% or 8% a year, but what they have done is grown by 7% or 8% a year for quite a few years.
They have pulled of a great coup in reality.
They have built a 21st century infrastructure with modern cities, freeways and railway networks, ports.
All in 15 years or so and all financed by selling us cheap shit that we used to make before they started making it cheaper.
To keep themselves afloat for a while, they have lots of US and Euro paper. They also own a lot of our hard assets as well (factories, farmland, residential property).
Chinas slowdown is not a massive problem for China.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy