Hows that US recovery looking now John, expecting another rate rise soon ? And what about those shiny trinklets mate ?
US is doing just fine, land prices and credit are coming along nicely they are even buying more cars than they did before the GFC. Plus there is a chronic shortage of aircraft pilots to the extent that they are having to cancel flights, none of which is the sign of a contracting economy.
US is doing just fine, land prices and credit are coming along nicely they are even buying more cars than they did before the GFC. Plus there is a chronic shortage of aircraft pilots to the extent that they are having to cancel flights, none of which is the sign of a contracting economy.
So Land prices, Credit and Aircraft pilots are the sum total of a healthy economy?
US is doing just fine, land prices and credit are coming along nicely they are even buying more cars than they did before the GFC. Plus there is a chronic shortage of aircraft pilots to the extent that they are having to cancel flights, none of which is the sign of a contracting economy.
Exports to the US fell 9.3% over the year. I would say this shows things are far from fine, just the opposite.
The US is 320 plus million people compared to our 20 million. A huge market for the chinese. As demand falls, so does pricing as competition increases to complete a sale, and so do the profits.
So what we can see is this. When exports to the US fall by 9.3% year on year, and imports to China fall 10.9%, it shows we are all buying a lot less from one another. What that shows is severe economic decline. This is where the jobs start dissapearing as a result of profits dissapearing. Rocket science bardon ?
Why not adrress the numbers I quoted from the article ? Just ignore those. Cannot explain those so lets just leve them out and make sweeping statements to the contrary.
The US economy used to be great, much better than the fine you claim. The fact is, the US economy is a mere shadow of its former glory, and always will be from here on. Wage growth is virtually non existant to previuos decades as are rent growths.
Seems you all studied the price rises of history, just forgot to look at what caused them. Look back to the good decades of prior ,just dont look back far enough to the great depression.
This period of history is merely like the period prior to the great depression. Lowest rates in history, debt levels at record highs, worst stock market start to the year since the great depression. The facts are All there.
If the bond market is to be believed, the world is heading for recession.
Quote:
This is a "positive" yield curve, "steepening" from left to right. But curves are flattening - short-term yields are anchored by expectations policy rates are going nowhere fast and falling growth and inflation expectations are depressing longer-term yields.
"It's a little more complicated than it used to be. The shape of the yield curve today is very much a function of global central bank activity – negative rates and quantitative easing. This changes the mechanics of the yield curve with respect to pure growth and inflation signals," said Lena Komileva, managing director at G+ Economics in London.
Quote:
On the other hand, a deep inversion of the UK curve for several years in the late 1990s-early 2000s did not herald recession, and Japan has endured four recessions since the mid-1990s without the curve inverting.
Been awhile posting in this thread. Just want to update y'all with China's bail-in plan for indebted Chinese companies, the highest in the world, by using Chinese pensioners monies to prop up the Ponzi.
In August last year China said it would, for the first time, allow pension funds to be invested in stocks and other assets. Qilai Shen
China has selected 21 investment management institutions for its pension insurance fund, bringing it one step closer to investing up to $US290 billion ($390 billion) in its financial markets.
The investment management institutions include some of the country's biggest asset managers, insurers and investment banks, such as China Asset Management, Ping An Insurance, and CITIC Securities, the National Council for Social Security Fund (NCSSF) said on its website on Tuesday.
The announcement came just days after it appointed four custodian banks as custodians of the pension insurance fund, which was seen as signs that the government was speeding up on pension fund investment.
Former Chinese finance minister Lou Jiwei was appointed chairman of the NCSSF in late November, as China is working to reform the fund as the population ages and obligations are set to rise.
Before investment can start, those management institutions would need to submit applications and get approval on what financial products can qualify, state newspaper the Securities Daily reported on Wednesday, citing an unidentified NCSSF staff member.
"How long that will take depends on the overall arrangement," the person was quoted as saying, without elaborating.
The NCSSF is expected to sign the first investing contracts with an initial batch of provincial governments before the end of this year, China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said during a briefing earlier in October.
In August last year China said it would, for the first time, allow pension funds to be invested in stocks and other assets widening a scope until then restricted to lower-yielding bank deposits and treasuries.
The paper estimated 2 trillion yuan ($390 billion) is available for investment by the fund, which had a massive reserve of 3.99 trillion yuan by the end of 2015.
But initial investment would be limited in the short-term and is not expected to have a significant impact on the stock market, it said.
"It's more important that there is long-term investment going into the market and boost market confidence," China Asset Management investment director Yang Kun was quoted as saying.
China's stocks have struggled for much of this year after a crash in the summer of 2015 that at one point wiped out more than 40 percent of their value.
China takes on hedge fund bosses Ackman, Bass, Tepper in yuan battle Neelabh Chaturvedi 16 Hours Ago
...China's efforts to defend currency have come at a cost though. China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, fell by more than $500 billion last year to stand at $3.33 trillion at the end of 2015 as the central bank intervened aggressively.
"The $3 trillion mark is an important psychological level and if reserves fall below this mark, that would encourage the yuan bears," said Khoon Goh, currency strategist at ANZ[/i]
Update: Reserves were $3.33 trillion last February.
Now down to $3.05 trillion. Ready to breach that $3 trillion psychological barrier.
Net reserves fall to $1.07 trillion (reserves less US dollar denomicated debt). As the Yuan weakens, net reserves will fall even more.
https://www.ft.com/content/b927a3ca-c779-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f China’s leaders split over policy for $3tn forex reserves Debate hardens on whether country should continue to use stockpile to support renminbi DECEMBER 22, 2016 by: Tom Mitchell in Beijing
The Chinese Communist party does not celebrate Christmas. But it does consider the holiday a good time to try to bury bad news.
Most infamously, on Christmas Day 2009 a Chinese court sentenced Liu Xiaobo, the country’s only Nobel Peace Prize laureate, to 11 years in prison for allegedly “inciting subversion”.
This year the awkward event might be an economic one. The trading days just before or after Christmas, which falls on Sunday, could be an opportune time to let China’s currency break through the key threshold of Rmb7 to the dollar.
Seven is one of two prime numbers that party and government officials in Beijing have been obsessing about lately. The other is three, as in China’s end-of-November foreign exchange holdings of just over $3tn, and the two numbers are closely linked.
Since August 2015, when China’s central bank gave the market a greater role in determining the renminbi’s value, the currency has been falling steadily against the dollar. During that period it has fallen from 6.20 against the dollar to 6.96, an eight-year low.
It would have fallen even further, faster, if not for the willingness of the People’s Bank of China to sell dollars from its foreign exchange hoardings to cushion the renminbi’s decline. This has contributed to the steady drain on China’s forex reserves, which peaked at $4tn in 2014.
The fact that China’s forex reserves are poised to fall below $3tn as its currency flirts with Rmb7: $1 has sharpened what was already a divisive domestic policy debate. That debate centres on whether the country should continue to “waste” its forex reserves on supporting the renminbi.
Economically literate officials in Beijing argue that China’s forex stockpile is both an embarrassment of riches and a problem to manage. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund reckons that countries need to hold only enough forex to pay for three months’ worth of imports and honour their international short-term debt obligations.
At the beginning of this year, such officials said in closed-door meetings that at least $1tn of Beijing’s forex holdings represented Chinese companies’ risky overseas borrowings that should be paid back anyway, especially as the dollar continued to strengthen against the renminbi. According to these officials, China would be fine with forex reserves of $2tn, or even $1tn.
On the other side of the debate are the mercantilists, some of them senior members of the leadership without formal economic training, who equate large forex holdings with national strength and prestige. Others, more reasonably, simply say that the holdings are a resource that should be spent wisely. According to these cadres, the PBoC should simply let the renminbi fall where it will in order to keep China’s forex reserves above $3tn. Surrender seven, in other words, to hold the line at three.
There are two problems with the mercantilists’ strategy. The first is that the more the renminbi falls against the dollar, the harder Chinese companies and individuals will try to accumulate dollars themselves, exacerbating capital flight. Hence the State Council’s recent batten-down-the-hatches approach to cross-border capital flows, with stronger controls on everything from Chinese companies’ overseas direct investments to foreign investors’ dividend payments back to headquarters.
The second problem is Donald Trump, the mercantilist US president-elect. From his public comments, Mr Trump appears to believe that the Chinese government has been “manipulating” the renminbi downwards against the dollar when it has in fact been doing the opposite.
If China were to step back and let market forces drive the renminbi sharply down against the dollar, it could set the stage for a trade-war collision with the most unpredictable US president-elect that the Chinese government has had to deal with.
The next few days will shed some light on who in Beijing is winning the renminbi v reserves policy debate. Christmas or not, the world will be watching.
Update: Reserves were $3.33 trillion last February.
Now down to $3.05 trillion. Ready to breach that $3 trillion psychological barrier.
Net reserves fall to $1.07 trillion (reserves less US dollar denomicated debt). As the Yuan weakens, net reserves will fall even more.
https://www.ft.com/content/b927a3ca-c779-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f China’s leaders split over policy for $3tn forex reserves Debate hardens on whether country should continue to use stockpile to support renminbi DECEMBER 22, 2016 by: Tom Mitchell in Beijing
The Chinese Communist party does not celebrate Christmas. But it does consider the holiday a good time to try to bury bad news.
Most infamously, on Christmas Day 2009 a Chinese court sentenced Liu Xiaobo, the country’s only Nobel Peace Prize laureate, to 11 years in prison for allegedly “inciting subversion”.
This year the awkward event might be an economic one. The trading days just before or after Christmas, which falls on Sunday, could be an opportune time to let China’s currency break through the key threshold of Rmb7 to the dollar.
Seven is one of two prime numbers that party and government officials in Beijing have been obsessing about lately. The other is three, as in China’s end-of-November foreign exchange holdings of just over $3tn, and the two numbers are closely linked.
Since August 2015, when China’s central bank gave the market a greater role in determining the renminbi’s value, the currency has been falling steadily against the dollar. During that period it has fallen from 6.20 against the dollar to 6.96, an eight-year low.
It would have fallen even further, faster, if not for the willingness of the People’s Bank of China to sell dollars from its foreign exchange hoardings to cushion the renminbi’s decline. This has contributed to the steady drain on China’s forex reserves, which peaked at $4tn in 2014.
The fact that China’s forex reserves are poised to fall below $3tn as its currency flirts with Rmb7: $1 has sharpened what was already a divisive domestic policy debate. That debate centres on whether the country should continue to “waste” its forex reserves on supporting the renminbi.
Economically literate officials in Beijing argue that China’s forex stockpile is both an embarrassment of riches and a problem to manage. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund reckons that countries need to hold only enough forex to pay for three months’ worth of imports and honour their international short-term debt obligations.
At the beginning of this year, such officials said in closed-door meetings that at least $1tn of Beijing’s forex holdings represented Chinese companies’ risky overseas borrowings that should be paid back anyway, especially as the dollar continued to strengthen against the renminbi. According to these officials, China would be fine with forex reserves of $2tn, or even $1tn.
On the other side of the debate are the mercantilists, some of them senior members of the leadership without formal economic training, who equate large forex holdings with national strength and prestige. Others, more reasonably, simply say that the holdings are a resource that should be spent wisely. According to these cadres, the PBoC should simply let the renminbi fall where it will in order to keep China’s forex reserves above $3tn. Surrender seven, in other words, to hold the line at three.
There are two problems with the mercantilists’ strategy. The first is that the more the renminbi falls against the dollar, the harder Chinese companies and individuals will try to accumulate dollars themselves, exacerbating capital flight. Hence the State Council’s recent batten-down-the-hatches approach to cross-border capital flows, with stronger controls on everything from Chinese companies’ overseas direct investments to foreign investors’ dividend payments back to headquarters.
The second problem is Donald Trump, the mercantilist US president-elect. From his public comments, Mr Trump appears to believe that the Chinese government has been “manipulating” the renminbi downwards against the dollar when it has in fact been doing the opposite.
If China were to step back and let market forces drive the renminbi sharply down against the dollar, it could set the stage for a trade-war collision with the most unpredictable US president-elect that the Chinese government has had to deal with.
The next few days will shed some light on who in Beijing is winning the renminbi v reserves policy debate. Christmas or not, the world will be watching.
The Japanese retook pole position in ownership of U.S. treasuries last month.
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