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Ten Black Swan Events that could Derail the Bull Market
Topic Started: 18 Feb 2015, 09:32 PM (3,013 Views)
Rastus2
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8 Billion Euro... pfft... small price to pay to prop up yet another bank.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Jon Snow
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skamy
24 Mar 2016, 11:18 AM
As is food - it is a good thing that governments realise this. Most people , excepting yourself of course, do not want to see a return ofthe rich landlord with their slum housing for the workers.
Don't you yourself want to be a rich landlord?
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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createdby
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Rastus2
27 Dec 2016, 05:25 PM
8 Billion Euro... pfft... small price to pay to prop up yet another bank.
The days of throwing tax payer billions to troubled banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies is over my friend.
The saying "a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money" has truly come to fruition.
It was possible in 2008 but nearly a decade on, governments and central banks are at max limit.
This is why bail-ins and haircuts to shareholders are in the conversation.
They literally cannot afford to bail-out anymore. You must realise this. This was established in 2014 via a communique in the G20 meeting in Brisbane Australia:

http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/TLAC-Condoc-6-Nov-2014-FINAL.pdf:
"The Key Attributes describe the powers and tools that authorities should have to achieve this objective. These include the bail-in power, i.e., the power to write down and convert into equity all or parts of the firm’s unsecured and uninsured liabilities of the firm under resolution or any successor in a manner that respects the creditor hierarchy and to the extent necessary to absorb the losses. Hence, the resolution strategies that are being developed for G-SIBs provide for a recapitalisation by a way of a bail-in (with or without use of a bridge institution) to support the orderly resolution or wind-down of a G-SIB in a manner that maintains at a minimum continuity of critical functions."

G-SIB stands for Global List of Systemically Important Banks. Monte dei Paschi di Siena, as a D-SIB (domestic systemically important banks), is in that list as are the Australia Big 4:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_systemically_important_banks

If Global List of Systemically Important Banks are agreed upon as automatic bail-ins, you think D-SIB's will get a better deal (like a bail-out)?

Also note the technical jargon " the power to write down...uninsured liabilities". Uninsured liabilities is just any deposit not guaranteed by the government, ie, any deposit above $250,000 per person in Australia. Your money or any corporations money above $250,000 will be confiscated by the bank in a bail-in.

Italian depositors, at least those who are in the know, realise this, which is why there is a bank run on Monte dei Paschi right now:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/12/27/monte-dei-paschi-deposit-run-and-shortfall-shows-errors-of-ecb-rules-on-bank-rescues/#6a9350c21d2d

Edited by createdby, 28 Dec 2016, 12:26 AM.
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Rastus2
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createdby
27 Dec 2016, 11:54 PM
The days of throwing tax payer billions to troubled banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies is over my friend.
oh, I seriously doubt that.

You are correct, "bail in's" are now the vogue... however when there is a gap, and "too big to fail" is mumbled .... guess who get's the haircut ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Jimbo
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newjez
19 Feb 2015, 01:37 AM
Lots of black swans in Perth.
All over the place, in plain sight.

Local people are so used to them that they go almost unnoticed.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Jon Snow
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Jimbo
28 Dec 2016, 04:55 PM
All over the place, in plain sight.

Local people are so used to them that they go almost unnoticed.
I see what you did there.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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