Here is what you do not understand - the majority of property NEVER gets sold in a downturn- just think about that one for 5 minutes.
The Irish market is driven by wealthy expats returning from overseas. There is more Irish in Boston than in Dublin. There was very good reasons for the price growth for a long time the market was destabilised by speculators treating it like a Ponzi - the way that you and your mates are doing right now in Australia only they were betting on continued speculation you are betting on dropping speculation.
You know nothing about Ireland Veritas - you are just a pompous spoilt brat rich Aussie kid who needs to call the Irish stupid to sustain his cheap house fantasy.
You logic is the Irish were all stupid - the Australians are all stupid hence there is no difference between the two economies and sooner or later I will get to pick over the ashes of everyone else's stupidity.
All this because you guys think you have the entitlement to buy in the suburbs your parents bought in without any competition from all the new people who have arrived in this country since then.
Quote:
Here is what you do not understand - the majority of property NEVER gets sold in a downturn- just think about that one for 5 minutes.
And yet prices in Dublin for the houses that did sell halved. And new houses got significantly cheaper too. Why's that Skamy?
Quote:
The Irish market is driven by wealthy expats returning from overseas. There is more Irish in Boston than in Dublin. There was very good reasons for the price growth for a long time the market was destabilised by speculators treating it like a Ponzi - the way that you and your mates are doing right now in Australia only they were betting on continued speculation you are betting on dropping speculation.
Is it really? Have you for any evidence for that?
Quote:
You know nothing about Ireland Veritas - you are just a pompous spoilt brat rich Aussie kid who needs to call the Irish stupid to sustain his cheap house fantasy.
You logic is the Irish were all stupid - the Australians are all stupid hence there is no difference between the two economies and sooner or later I will get to pick over the ashes of everyone else's stupidity.
All this because you guys think you have the entitlement to buy in the suburbs your parents bought in without any competition from all the new people who have arrived in this country since then.
Irrelevant verbal Diarrhea
Quote:
So the fact is new buyers are taking on lower debt serviceability ratios than we have seen for years.
Check your facts Veritas
I said debt. You said debt serviceability. They are different things as you know you fraud.
If I buy a house for 600k, I still owe at least 600k no matter what interest rates do.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Yes Veritas you want to think debt means people about to have a fire sale - you want to ignore debt serviceability because it has people paying down their mortgages quickly and are as far away from possible from selling you their homes on the cheap.
If you borrow 600k in today's market that will be much easier for you to pay down quickly due to the debt serviceability caution of lenders and this is exactly what is happening. Renters are paying down these mortgages taken on by young investors very quickly indeed in this environment. Especially in Perth with its high rental yields.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Yes Veritas you want to think debt means people about to have a fire sale - you want to ignore debt serviceability because it has people paying down their mortgages quickly and are as far away from possible from selling you their homes on the cheap.
If you borrow 600k in today's market that will be much easier for you to pay down quickly due to the debt serviceability caution of lenders and this is exactly what is happening. Renters are paying down these mortgages taken on by young investors very quickly indeed in this environment. Especially in Perth with its high rental yields.
Were there firesales in Mandurrah?
There must have been to precipitate a 40% drop in prices.
Got any evidence of them?
Quote:
If you borrow 600k in today's market that will be much easier for you to pay down quickly due to the debt serviceability caution of lenders and this is exactly what is happening. Renters are paying down these mortgages taken on by young investors very quickly indeed in this environment. Especially in Perth with its high rental yields.
If you borrow 600k, you owe 600k this is your debt
this is the figure that is measured when we talk about debt levels. Interest rates don't come into it.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Where the hell do you get the idea I was born in 1960??? Complete made up crap - have never said that and it's certainly not true. I'm not going to be exact, but I will say I was born before Whitlam became PM, but a few years after Menzies stopped being PM. The only temporal anomaly here is on your head!
From your prior claim that you will reach the preservation age for TTR at age 55. Now I know that was complete made up crap.
Quote:
My first house was not on the "north shore". It was a below Sydney median priced house in the suburbs - 25km-30kms from the city. I am tertiary educated but studied (mostly) part-time so was earning an income from when I was 19, while living at home. I drove an old/cheap car that I fixed up myself, and as also mentioned I bought a few old/classic cars, fixed them up and sold them for a profit which also added to my savings when I was young. Before university I worked typical part-time jobs and had some savings even from then as well as starting point. I didn't blow all my savings on new cars and overseas holidays - instead I hung onto them with a view to buy a house - a goal I had set for myself after witnessing the late 80s Sydney property boom. I guess I also benefited from the high interest rates in 1990 as well - I had a term deposit once with St George bank that paid 18% interest for 6 months - I still have the pass book for that one!
OK, so you were earning a non-graduate wage from 19 to 24 while living at home with your parents, and you were making bank on classic cars in a recession. I still don't see the 20% deposit coming together, even for a below median priced house in the suburbs. City to Parramatta is 24 kms by road, 20 kms as the crow flies. So depending on what "25km-30kms from the city" means, it could have been Sutherland, Liverpool, Wetherill Park, or Parramatta, Carlingford, Hills District, Hornsby or Asquith. I'm going to have a look for some 1992 property prices in those areas over the weekend to see if this story holds water.
Quote:
You really cannot conceive that people were able to do this? And still can?
By your own admission, you earned a year's salary fixing up classic cars and selling them in the middle of the worst recession for 70 years, while living with your parents and partying like a boss on weekends. While I believe it is possible, it is not something I think the majority of "FOMO kids" can use as a repeatable formula for property success.
Quote:
I think that given all your key assumptions are flawed, that it should also be clear that your conclusion here is compete crap.
I'm only going on the information you have provided, which seems to involve the story evolving with every post.
------------------------------ " ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility." - Alan Glynn
There must have been to precipitate a 40% drop in prices.
Got any evidence of them?
If you borrow 600k, you owe 600k this is your debt
this is the figure that is measured when we talk about debt levels. Interest rates don't come into it.
Good lord you are annoying.
Veritas you are only annoyed because you are insisting on repeating clearly untrue statements, this is laeding to feelings of frustration when you cannot get others to believe your misunderstandings.
Later in life when you have purchased a home what do you think would prompt you to sell it at a 40% discount? Use some common sense - noone does this without being forced to.
Since when did interest rates not come into debt measures ?
Debt has always been available at certain levels relative to wages and interest rates. At the moment the interest rates used to calculate this are much higher than actual rates. This is allowing people to pay down their debt quicker.
You just keep denying this and claiming that the debt levels in the country at the moment are demonstrating some in some kind of problem. When the opposite is true.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
From your prior claim that you will reach the preservation age for TTR at age 55. Now I know that was complete made up crap.
Really? You will have to post a link to that one, as I am not sure what you are talking about? Regardless, why would talking about the TTR from age 55 mean I was born in 1960? Do you think I was claiming that I had reached that age *now*? If so I 100% have never made any such claim. I certainly hope in the future to take advantage of the TTR rules/process though.
Anyway nice deflection from the fact that you basically have completely f*cked up, got your facts wrong, and then gone on to use those flawed assumptions to try and attack me and my personal anecdote, in response to which I can do no more than assure you it is 100% true. If you search the forum I think you will find that any post I have ever made about my past will align - I don't tell lies, why would I need to? It says a lot about your outlook that you find my circumstances so hard to believe.
Quote:
OK, so you were earning a non-graduate wage from 19 to 24 while living at home with your parents, and you were making bank on classic cars in a recession. I still don't see the 20% deposit coming together, even for a below median priced house in the suburbs. City to Parramatta is 24 kms by road, 20 kms as the crow flies. So depending on what "25km-30kms from the city" means, it could have been Sutherland, Liverpool, Wetherill Park, or Parramatta, Carlingford, Hills District, Hornsby or Asquith. I'm going to have a look for some 1992 property prices in those areas over the weekend to see if this story holds water.
I started earning full/typical graduate money before I graduated, based on the experience I had gained before then. The car thing was just a hobby sideline, but I did make maybe $5k-$10k out of it over a few years to boost my savings. It was really payment for the labour I put into fixing up the cheapies I was able to pick up for a song at that time. The deposit was easy - I had the cash. Strangely in your view, I also knew several people my own age with similar savings, but I also knew a lot who had zip - you would have probably been in that later group I imagine had I known you then......
Re prices - research away - I will say that the suburb my house was in is either one of the ones you have listed, or a suburb that is near one of them. Let me know how much you reckon houses in those areas were going for back then and I will assess your research skills for you.
Quote:
By your own admission, you earned a year's salary fixing up classic cars and selling them in the middle of the worst recession for 70 years, while living with your parents and partying like a boss on weekends. While I believe it is possible, it is not something I think the majority of "FOMO kids" can use as a repeatable formula for property success.
Do try and keep up - I never claimed I earned a years salary from the car thing - just a bit of extra savings. My TOTAL savings were about a years salary at the time I bought my first house. Re the recession, you clearly don't understand the opportunities that abound in recessions - especially with things like cars - as with many endeavours, you make your money on the BUYING, you only realise the profit on the selling. Also, as I also said, the "partying" was more post uni by the way, after I bought the house - not that I didn't also have a great time while at uni, but I also had to focus on study and work, plus most people I hung out with then were students who didn't have a lot of money, so we didn't spend up big to have our fun at that time.
Quote:
I'm only going on the information you have provided, which seems to involve the story evolving with every post.
You expect my life story with all details you require in one post??? Regardless, my story might be "evolving" but only in terms of detail. Otherwise everything I have ever said about my past is entirely consitent - it seems that is just you comprehension that is the thing that is evolving.......
You just keep denying this and claiming that the debt levels in the country at the moment are demonstrating some in some kind of problem. When the opposite is true. [/quote]
Quote:
Later in life when you have purchased a home what do you think would prompt you to sell it at a 40% discount? Use some common sense - noone does this without being forced to.
Its not a discount you clown, its the market price of the property at the time. Plenty of people who are not distressed sellers will sell for all sorts of reasons at the price they can achieve at the time.
Your argument is horse shit with no basis in fact.
Quote:
Since when did interest rates not come into debt measures ?
Since forever you muppet.
What you borrow is the debt. That is not a variable. The relative burden of the debt is affected by inflation rates and interest rates. These are variables.
Household debt levels in Australia ( or anywhere else for that matter) when measured have no regard for either inflation or interest rates.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
You can lead a horse to water but you cannot force him to drink
Veritas just carry on and on and on forever making dreadful calls on the Perth property market - it is only you that loses.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
You can lead a horse to water but you cannot force him to drink
Veritas just carry on and on and on forever making dreadful calls on the Perth property market - it is only you that loses.
I presume that's your way of admitting you are talking out your arse.
As usual.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy