Yet another silly assumption about the knowledge of others, while blithely ignoring your own ignorance on the topic. This is despite the fact that it is you who is making these grandiose predictions of oversupply and 20% plus price drops in this wealthy rapidly growing city.
Both Mike and I are predicting a slow growing buyers market which is a far more reasonable position to take given the fundamentals.
Okay,
So please tell me then ( with sources) what the lending regime to the developers in question is and prove me wrong.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
He asked, "Can you prove that the apartment builds are not mostly sold, meaning more then 50% remain unsold in anyone building?" And the answer is no, don't care (beyond this discussion), am not an investor in the Perth market.
Rather it is Mike's case to prove that those apartment builds *are* sold. He's the one positing that the overall Perth market is still selling swimmingly, e.g. "Rush of sales and properties on the market with the middle to high end doing very well. I expect this trend to continue over Jan/Feb/March."
He asked, "Can you prove that the apartment builds are not mostly sold, meaning more then 50% remain unsold in anyone building?" And the answer is no, don't care (beyond this discussion), am not an investor in the Perth market.
Rather it is Mike's case to prove that those apartment builds *are* sold. He's the one positing that the overall Perth market is still selling swimmingly, e.g. "Rush of sales and properties on the market with the middle to high end doing very well. I expect this trend to continue over Jan/Feb/March."
All I'm asking for is a bit of proof...
I can assure you it would be a very very rare occurrence to see a developer build with only 50% of sales in the current Perth market. Why not call up a few developers the ones I know that are going ahead right now are pretty much sold out. Due to the reasons explained above.
This is common knowledge if you have any investments - it is not up to anyone here to fill in your knowledge gaps. Phone up some of the developers and find out their decision to build process if you want to know for sure. here are some examples
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Another nail in the coffin for the cheap house dreamers and the crash zombies.
Never ever forget that Perth is a market in a downturn - it has been stagnant for years - it is far more likely to see price rises that prices falls - NO MATTER what else in going on in the economy.
Don't get too greedy trying he odds are very long on any further declines in house prices.
Aww come on Perthite you guys have been predicting some kind of massive increase in listings for months now. All we saw was a rise to the high end of normal and then it fell backwards again.
If you want a crash you will need 20k plus of listings no matter what the season.
And just to really tee you off here is one in Coogee that is 90% sold. This is the are that Mike has invested in BTW. Seems like he is not alone in finding it a desirable place to live.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Aww come on Perthite you guys have been predicting some kind of massive increase in listings for months now. All we saw was a rise to the high end of normal and then it fell backwards again.
If you want a crash you will need 20k plus of listings no matter what the season.
And just to really tee you off here is one in Coogee that is 90% sold. This is the are that Mike has invested in BTW. Seems like he is not alone in finding it a desirable place to live.
This is why since spring perth prices increased by 1.4% in November and then 2.1% in December. Rush of sales and properties on the market with the middle to high end doing very well. I expect this trend to continue over Jan/Feb/March.
1.4% growth followed by 2.1% the next month is greater than the published RP data quarterly growth rate figure of 1.61% Mike?
It is actually greater than the annual growth rate number of 2.2%?
Perhaps you have made a mistake in your calculations?
skamy
13 Jan 2015, 12:13 AM
And just to really tee you off here is one in Coogee that is 90% sold. This is the are that Mike has invested in BTW. Seems like he is not alone in finding it a desirable place to live.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
The only place there is a slight oversupply is in units in the inner city and this has been there for quite some time. It has not nor will it crash the market. Why because the land market is very very strong and the upgrader market is showing signs of life again after years in the doldrums.
The truth is that the majority of units are indeed sold - they have to be getting funding from the banks is very difficult - people still live under the GFC cloud - no bank is gonna risk money in property until the GFC is much much further behind us.
Do you seriously believe banks would fund developments that are at risk of underselling?
What is happening is that unit building will slow down again and that is good for long term investors as nothing is surer than that we will run into an under supply in a few years.
Yes, but it's not just unique to Perth. There's oversupply in many of Oz most popular metro locations for apartment living .
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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