Never ever forget that Perth is a market in a downturn - it has been stagnant for years - it is far more likely to see price rises that prices falls - NO MATTER what else in going on in the economy.
And will it be magic beans that cause this upswing?
You do realise that housing markets are married to underlying economic fundamentals don't you?
The appalling vista you are faced with is that fact that even a massive boom barely lifted house prices in the last few years and now the economy in on the slide.
What do you think will happen next?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Sheesh what is it with the preacher men and the doomsters?
What you holier than thou types are trying to claim is that if people don't agree with you doomsters that investment in property is evil for the working classes they will face eternal damnation and hellfire.
You preach a 15th century sermon advocating keeping the working people in poverty while the rich leech of them. The worst thing is that you don't even know that you are doing this.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
More importantly did you see the 7% drop in the listings for sale ?
Listings did drop in the four weeks to January 7th. People generally don't list their houses for sale over Christmas and new year.
But over the year, they are up by 40%.
You forgot to mention that?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
And will it be magic beans that cause this upswing?
You do realise that housing markets are married to underlying economic fundamentals don't you?
The appalling vista you are faced with is that fact that even a massive boom barely lifted house prices in the last few years and now the economy in on the slide.
What do you think will happen next?
Lets wait and see shall we - the fundamentals are good this is your error - you cannot distinguish between good and bad. The rest of the world would die for the fundamentals in Perth.
You keep predicting these totally wild changes that are spruiked by the doomster blogs - they have let you down for years Veritas and they will let you down again. There is not one fundamental sign of a looming property price crash in Perth - NOT ONE.
These guys are hanging onto Perth as their last bastion of hope and their predictions are so overblown they border on madness for this wealthy state.
As if WA cannot ride out a lull in energy and resource prices - they have have done this many many times yet prices keep rising relentlessly. The reason is simple- the population continues to grow.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
As if WA cannot ride out a lull in energy and resource prices - they have have done this many many times yet prices keep rising relentlessly. The reason is simple- the population continues to grow
How many times does it have to be explained to you that population growth does not automatically mean surging house prices?
If that were true some African countries would have the most expensive real estate in the world.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
How many times does it have to be explained to you that population growth does not automatically mean surging house prices?
It can mean a surge in building though as developers gear up for an expected 70,000 increase in population. Shame only a maximum 45,000 are going to turn up.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Listings did drop in the four weeks to January 7th. People generally don't list their houses for sale over Christmas and new year.
But over the year, they are up by 40%.
You forgot to mention that?
You know perfectly well that 12000 -13000 is the normal Perth market for listings any less than that is an under supply. You will never get a price crash with these low numbers you need well over 20,000 for that.
The doomsters are such drama queens predicting huge increases in the number of listings and yet again their silly claims fail to materialise.
Why would people list their homes if the market confidence is low? Do you think people are idiots?
Veritas
12 Jan 2015, 05:55 PM
How many times does it have to be explained to you that population growth does not automatically mean surging house prices?
If that were true some African countries would have the most expensive real estate in the world.
You mix up absolutes with relatives Veritas. House prices are growing in African countries with growing populations - they have to as more people compete for the best located houses.
Many things cause temporary rises or falls in house prices but only population growth and wealth growth sustainably increases prices. So unless you are a property speculator who wants to use house prices as a form of gambling only these two factors should influence your decision to invest in property over the long term.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
You know perfectly well that 12000 -13000 is the normal Perth market for listings any less than that is an under supply. Why would people list their homes if the market confidence is low? Do you think people are idiots?
Why are sales listings are by 39% in a year? More people wanting to sell maybe?
Why are rental listings up 30% over the year? More properties available for rent and fewer people wanting to rent maybe?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
It can mean a surge in building though as developers gear up for an expected 70,000 increase in population. Shame only a maximum 45,000 are going to turn up.
Jimbo you were shown previously to be wrong on this made up assumption of stupidity you make about people who spending their hard earned money and risking their money on developments for no-one. Who in their right minds does not factor in what happened in 2007?
Your assumption could be true for pre crash Ireland but nothing could be further from the truth in Perth's cautious development market at the moment. You live in a fantasy where everyone has rocks in their head and their stupidity is gonna be a windfall for you. Life is just not that easy Jimbo, no-one is gonna sell their homes on the cheap or flood the market for you.
Jimbo
12 Jan 2015, 06:08 PM
Why are sales listings are by 39% in a year? More people wanting to sell maybe?
Why are rental listings up 30% over the year? More properties available for rent and fewer people wanting to rent maybe?
Sales listings rose to more normal levels because there was a perception that confidence was returning to the market. They stopped growing months ago and are now dropping again, another nail in the coffin for the crash zombies.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Jimbo you were shown previously to be wrong on this made up assumption of stupidity you make about people who spending their hard earned money and risking their money on developments for no-one.
Was I shown to be wrong? Are all of these apartment buildings going up in the city already sold?
Quote:
Sales listings rose to more normal levels because there was a perception that confidence was returning to the market. They stopped growing months ago and are now dropping again, another nail in the coffin for the crash zombies.
Is that right? Have you spoken to the 13,000 or so vendors to find out why they are selling?
Numbers started to fall back at the beginning of December (as they do just before Christmas). They are now climbing again.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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