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WA population growth has crashed.; Slowest in 8 years and forecast to fall.
Topic Started: 20 Dec 2014, 12:45 PM (14,084 Views)
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Mike
2 Jan 2015, 11:20 AM
Please provide a link to official government projections which base the population growth assumptions on 70,000+ people arriving in WA over 2014 or 2015.

Please provide some evidence that developers have been building for a population growth of 70,000+ people per year.

You make a lot of statements, start supporting those statements with some actually facts rather then you're misinformed opinion.

In December 1993 WA approved 2,551 houses/units to build.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=8731.0&viewtitle=Building%20Approvals,%20Australia~Oct%202014~Latest~02/12/2014&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=8731.0&issue=Oct%202014&num=&view=&

In December 2014 WA approved around 2,700 houses/units to build.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8731.0Main%20Features1Oct%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8731.0&issue=Oct%202014&num=&view=

The only difference is we have over 900,000 more people then we did in 1993.

I hope you are factoring in that 1 in 4 new builds (as per the ABS) is a replacement of an existing property. So out of the 30,000 properties built or approved in 2014, 7500 of them are replacement of existing stock. This means only 22,500 new properties are adding to supply. At the current population growth this supply is now only meeting the demand of population growth of around 50-55,000 people per year.

Now I suggest you take a look at the last 20 years of construction levels in Perth compared to population growth. This will give you a very good understanding of why house prices have increased as we have underbuilt for many years leading to a shortage of supply. WA needs construction of 40,000 houses per year to generate a flood of new properties and it needs to be sustained over a number of years to reduce property prices.

In 2013 we had 71,400 new people and built around 26,000 properties, 20,000 of those are new stock no replacements. At 2.6 people per household we needed 27,461 new houses. A short fall of over 7,000 properties for 2013.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/FA627CA7C5708380CA257D5D0015EB95?opendocument

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/8731.0Main%20Features3December%202013?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8731.0&issue=December%202013&num=&view=

In 2012 we had 83,000 people and built 20,000 new houses of which 15,000 increased supply. We needed almost 32,000 new properties in 2012 to meet population growth. A Shortfall of 17,000 new properties.

In 2011 we had 67,400 new people and built around 20,000 new properties of which 15,000 added to supply. We needed almost 26,000 new properties. A shortfall of 9,000.

In the last 4 years WA has underbuilt by 33,000 properties for the population growth which has already occurred, let alone future population growth. The current rate of construction is only now just meeting demand. This level needs to be sustained and increased for a number of years before Perth has any type of overbuilding issues.


Who gives a shit Mike about 70,000 or 80,000 or whatever.....

Wake up to the facts mate....

Record overbuilding.....open your eyes buddyyyyy

Rents crashing for years now.

Property on market surging.

Rental vacancies going through the roof..

Jobs and wages dissapearing...

Population growth peaked long ago and is now declining....

Iron ore down 50% this year......1/3 of what it once was......

Prices up 5% in four years Mike....with the best economic times they have seen or will ever see agajn.

All downhill now

Youve seen wage growth history Mike....all over now mate.

You praying on a repeat that can never be....
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Jimbo
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Mike
2 Jan 2015, 11:20 AM
Please provide some evidence that developers have been building for a population growth of 70,000+ people per year.

There was one dip shit alleged developer on here a year ago who posted a link to an article about Perth builders struggling to keep up with demand created by strong population growth.

I think his name was Mike.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8440729&t=9982833

Also, an interesting article from January 2014 (12 months ago). The chart shows projected growth of 600,000 from end of 2013 to 2020. That is an average growth of 80,000 plus per year. The chart was supplied by the ABS.

http://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/news/proper-planning-and-design-needed-to-cope-with-pop
Edited by Jimbo, 2 Jan 2015, 07:41 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
2 Jan 2015, 07:01 PM
There was one dip shit alleged developer on here a year ago who posted a link to an article about Perth builders struggling to keep up with demand created by strong population growth.

I think his name was Mike.

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8440729&t=9982833

Also, an interesting article from January 2014 (12 months ago). The chart shows projected growth of 600,000 from end of 2013 to 2020. That is an average growth of 80,000 plus per year. The chart was supplied by the ABS.

http://www.architectureanddesign.com.au/news/proper-planning-and-design-needed-to-cope-with-pop
Maybe mike likes it both ways?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Perthite
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http://reiwa.com.au/About-Us/News/Perth-rental-stock-impacted-by-migration-turnaround/

Says it all really.

Rental Vacancies steadily climbing again.

http://reiwa.com.au/About-Us/News/Market-Snapshot-for-the-week-ending-7-January/
Edited by Perthite, 10 Jan 2015, 08:35 PM.
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Lef-tee
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Not quite on thread topic but kind of related Housing more affordable as rents plunge in Gladstone

Ye shall reap what ye sow :oo:
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Jimbo
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Lef-tee
10 Jan 2015, 10:08 PM
Not quite on thread topic but kind of related Housing more affordable as rents plunge in Gladstone

Ye shall reap what ye sow :oo:
I saw Gladstone mentioned on a US TV news show yesterday. They were talking about the knock on effect of the oil price on LNG.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Lef-tee
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Jimbo
10 Jan 2015, 11:46 PM
I saw Gladstone mentioned on a US TV news show yesterday. They were talking about the knock on effect of the oil price on LNG.
Knock down effect might be the way to look at it as present.

Young blokes mates father is a draftsman, currently doing upholstery work because there is no call for designing house plans here anymore.
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Perthite
10 Jan 2015, 08:28 PM
 News Perth rental stock impacted by migration turnaround

Perth rental stock impacted by migration turnaroundNEW

08 January 2015


A rapid decrease in migration has had a direct impact on the increase in Perth's rental stock over the past two years, according to REIWA President David Airey. 

“Migration peaked in the year to September 2012 before starting a rapid decline, with the latest readings of Western Australia's population growth for the year to June 2014 falling to its lowest level in eight years,” Mr Airey said. 

The impact of this turnaround in migration is evident in the number of rental listings available, which have continued their upward trend since mid-November. 

reiwa.com data shows that the overall median rent fell 2.2 per cent to $440 in the latest December quarter, which was a result of a 2.3 per cent fall in the median multi-residential rent dropping to $420.

“The stock of property 'For Lease' bottomed out at around 2,100 in September 2012 and has grown some 200 per cent since. Over that time, the vacancy rate has risen from 1.8 per cent to over 4.0 per cent,” Mr Airey said. 

Perth's Central market, which is where the majority of WA's rental stock exists, was the first to feel the impact of this decline.

“There was a rapid build-up of stock through to late 2013, which also saw rents fall across the sub-markets over the past two years. 

“In 2014, the downward pressure on rents spread to the outer parts of the Perth market where there was a stronger build-up of stock in percentage terms than the Central market, which has put downward pressure on rents in virtually all areas,” Mr Airey said.


Another wake up call for some.
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Jimbo
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Lef-tee
11 Jan 2015, 07:05 AM
Knock down effect might be the way to look at it as present.

Young blokes mates father is a draftsman, currently doing upholstery work because there is no call for designing house plans here anymore.
Two years ago we were contracting out some of our drafty work to a company in Singapore and having design calcs verified by companies in the eastern states. Demand was so high in WA for engineering design and calculation, that if you could get a local contractor, they were too bloody expensive.

Very different today.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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2 Jan 2015, 05:07 PM
Yields, what an absolute joke skamy. 3.8% is the current return. Can get more in the bank without the guarantee of further rents declines and price decli es for years on end.

Another eye opener for you all........

In Perth, if I was to put down 10%deposit , the rental return would not cover a FIFTY YEAR loan term, and thats if rates were locked in at 4% for the life of the loan, and thats also if you never had to pay council rates or water rates or maintenance and repairs or strata fees.

Sounds far fetched right......

But all fact.

Again, what an absolute joke the whole thing is.......
Ted you have quoted Australian yields NOT Perth yields --these are above 4%.
http://www.wapropertynews.com.au/perth-rental-yields-outperform-australian-average/-3396
Perthite
10 Jan 2015, 08:28 PM
More importantly did you see the 7% drop in the listings for sale ?

Another nail in the coffin for the cheap house dreamers and the crash zombies.

Never ever forget that Perth is a market in a downturn - it has been stagnant for years - it is far more likely to see price rises that prices falls - NO MATTER what else in going on in the economy.

Don't get too greedy trying he odds are very long on any further declines in house prices.
Edited by skamy, 12 Jan 2015, 05:20 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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