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WA population growth has crashed.; Slowest in 8 years and forecast to fall.
Topic Started: 20 Dec 2014, 12:45 PM (14,075 Views)
Perthite
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how big we going to be by 2020?

Muppets.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/25815737/victorians-drag-down-wa-growth/

Gutted just like I said.

Edited by Perthite, 20 Dec 2014, 12:46 PM.
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Mike
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Perthite
20 Dec 2014, 12:45 PM
how big we going to be by 2020?

Muppets.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/25815737/victorians-drag-down-wa-growth/

Gutted just like I said.

You do understand muppet that 2.2% population growth is still well above booming population growth.

At 2.2% in just 10 years WAs populations will grow from 2.57 million to 3.194 million or 624,000 new people, which averages out to 62,400 new people per year due to exponential growth.

In 32 years from now at a growth rate of 2.2% WA will double in population to over 5.150 million people.

Where will an extra 2.5 million people live, with most of them within the current Perth metro area.

Provided I keep my good health I will be almost 70 and have just gone over the current retirement age of 67, provided it does not change which im sure it will as most people in the 30-40s today will live to 100.

We only have one muppet on this thread, looked in the mirror lately.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
20 Dec 2014, 01:10 PM
You do understand muppet that 2.2% population growth is still well above booming population growth.

At 2.2% in just 10 years WAs populations will grow from 2.57 million to 3.194 million or 624,000 new people, which averages out to 62,400 new people per year due to exponential growth.

Your 2.2% growth is based on the twelve months to June 30th 2014.

In that period we added 54,382. The twelve months to June 2013 we added 82,156.

The last two quarters of data (March & June 2014) we added 24,014 in total. Those same quarters in 2013 we added 40,644.

As I mentioned a few months back, 457 applications (the largest visa category) have plummeted by 47% so growth is going to slow further.

It doesn't matter what you think may happen in 20 or 30 years time, our property market has geared up for 70,000 people coming this year and only 45,000 (max) are going to turn up.
Edited by Jimbo, 20 Dec 2014, 01:41 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
20 Dec 2014, 01:35 PM
Your 2.2% growth is based on the twelve months to June 30th 2014.

In that period we added 54,382. The twelve months to June 2013 we added 82,156.

The last two quarters of data (March & June 2014) we added 24,014 in total. Those same quarters in 2013 we added 40,644.

As I mentioned a few months back, 457 applications (the largest visa category) have plummeted by 47% so growth is going to slow further.

It doesn't matter what you think may happen in 20 or 30 years time, our property market has geared up for 70,000 people coming this year and only 45,000 (max) are going to turn up.
Like everything population growth moves in swings, up and down.

Over the next 30 years you will have periods of high growth and little growth. The end result will be the same if not higher.

Meanwhile we are all waiting for your claims made awhile back now that the market was declining, yet it is still rising today setting new highs. I told you prices would continue to rise over until around Winter of 2015 and that is exactly what is happening.

I will grant you my prediction of a flat market from middle 2015 could be wrong as talk has now moved towards further rate cuts and a long period of low or lower rates which will keep asset prices rising and demand elevated. Although this outcome is not certain and could change quickly as I expect 2015 to show stronger growth in the Australian economy then most expect at present due to numerous factors. So we could yet see rising rates later in 2015 or early 2016.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Jimbo
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Mike
20 Dec 2014, 02:14 PM
Like everything population growth moves in swings, up and down.


Meanwhile we are all waiting for your claims made awhile back now that the market was declining, yet it is still rising today setting new highs. I told you prices would continue to rise over until around Winter of 2015 and that is exactly what is happening.

And it is in a major downward spiral at the moment. Everyone (state treasury, building industry, chamber of commerce) was banking on 70k plus this year. That was never going to happen and I said this months back. People need a reason to come here (like a job) and unlike a few years back, mining is not hiring.

Quote:
 
Over the next 30 years you will have periods of high growth and little growth. The end result will be the same if not higher.
But at the moment is it low and getting lower.

Quote:
 
Meanwhile we are all waiting for your claims made awhile back now that the market was declining, yet it is still rising today setting new highs. I told you prices would continue to rise over until around Winter of 2015 and that is exactly what is happening.


We have had growth of 1.62% in the year to date. The bad news stuff like reduced resources employment and low population growth is just beginning to surface in the media. Meanwhile, look at this and tell me what is bullish about it.
Posted Image
Edited by Jimbo, 20 Dec 2014, 02:39 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
20 Dec 2014, 02:38 PM
And it is in a major downward spiral at the moment. Everyone (state treasury, building industry, chamber of commerce) was banking on 70k plus this year. That was never going to happen and I said this months back. People need a reason to come here (like a job) and unlike a few years back, mining is not hiring.


But at the moment is it low and getting lower.




We have had growth of 1.62% in the year to date. The bad news stuff like reduced resources employment and low population growth is just beginning to surface in the media. Meanwhile, look at this and tell me what is bullish about it.
Posted Image
Have a look over the past few months. Sales are only down by 255 of the same period last year, this is 3.86% lower. As I stated sales are close to last years levels, hence why we are seeing this.

Posted Image

Now Jimbo you posted this when you first came to these forums.

Quote:
 
Jimbo1 Aug 2014, 04:07 AM
I have just sold my house and moved into a rental. I had 100% equity in my property which is now in the bank
The reason I sold and came out of the market is that I can see what is coming. Not by looking at charts and reading reports, just by looking around me at what is going on in Perth right now.
Anyone living in Perth will know people who work in FIFO roles. They earn very good money and have high tax burdens. So many reduce their tax liabilities by purchasing investment property. Many are heavily leveraged and hold four or five properties. Fine if your houses are occupied and returning rent, fine if you are earning high pay and can absorb your losses.
They generally buy up established homes, do a bit of reno work and then rent them out to would be FHO's who can't afford to buy.
The investment buyers push up the prices at the lower end of the market, effectively pricing FHO's out of established property.
The reasons I sold my property, were the changes in WA stamp duty favouring new build and the mining infrastructure slowdown.
The stamp duty changes and the FHO grant for new build have created a building boom in more affordable properties. Smaller block sizes in fringe suburb new developments have created house and land packages well below the median. FHO's are building new and on completion, they are leaving behind an empty rental.
These rentals are sitting empty for longer and rents have begun to fall. The mining infrastructure slowdown means that WA has ceased to be the magnet for interstate and international migrants that it was a few short years ago so there is less competition for rental property.
It is pretty simple really. FHO's are building new rather than buying established property. Investors thinking of coming into the market now, face falling rents, increased job insecurity and increasing vacancy rates. REIWA projected slowing or stagnant growth rates over the coming six months will also make would be buyers hold out (no rush to buy in a quiet market).
With so many leveraged investors in the Perth market, any slowdown or reversal in prices could force a rush to the exits.
The coming six months will be very interesting
.


Yes that past 6 months have been interesting with prices rising, up almost 3% in the past 3 months alone.

http://reiwa.com.au/wa/Waikiki/6169/

In your preferred area of Waikiki it is up 9.3% as of 12th of December 2014. I am assuming you missed half or more of this growth as you stated you had sold your house by August 1st. Since then Waikiki has continued to grow. So we will assume 4% growth since you sold at the median price of $410,000 to be fair. That is $16,400 in potential you have missed out as a minimum.

Now as you sold your house, you would have had to pay the agent normally 1.8-2.2% is the market rate based on the median price $7380-$9020. Plus settlement and bank fees, likely another $1500.

Median rent in the area as you stated you were renting is $375 per week from realestate.com.au. This is $7500 in rent you have paid plus bond.

So all up in the past 6 months by selling your house it has cost you through direct costs and lost growth $32,780.

Now I understand why you want the market to collapse by a lot as you need it to, otherwise you are looking at a large and sustained loses. If you don't buy back in soon, your losses continue to mount as you rent and prices keep rising. Even if prices only rise slowly you are still losing each and every day.

This is based on the information you have provided us. Offcourse you can make up any fairy-tale you like how the money you have invested has returned some huge return to counter act these prices. You could have done the same thing by drawing on your equity, investing in these cant lose high return investments you have, while only paying 5% interest which is tax deductible on any income you make from your investments. Meanwhile you would have reduced your costs to sell the property, not pay rent and have enjoyed further price growth.

In effect you have made a very poor choice in method of investment and cost yourself tens of thousands of dollars. You should have consulted a financial advisor first, as no advisor I know would recommend what you have done.

So you need prices to fall on the median in Waikiki if you intend to buy back into this area which you have stated multiple times you are looking at numerous properties some 8% right now. Each month you need prices to fall at least 0.5% to recoup the ongoing costs of not owning your own home. So for every month prices do not fall you need the corresponding months falls to be larger and larger. At some point your loses will be to great and you will buy back in, paying more costs such as stamp duty.

Of course your magical investments will save you, at least in your mind. To bad you did not borrow 80% LVR at record low rates, draw that equity out and invest in these super investments using the interest as a deduction on the income it generates, all while staying in your own home with minimal costs. I assume as you are so confident in these cant lose investments that you have invested most of the proceeds of the sale of this property, that to invest the banks money at 5% of less interest rate which is deductible would also be a safe as house investment, pardon the pun.

Ouch. You really need to learn how to invest wisely using your money to its full potential or rather use others (Banks) to work for you while providing a tax deduction on that and other sources of income.

And you want us to listen to your advice, yea right.

Edited by Mike, 20 Dec 2014, 03:28 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Shadow
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Mike
20 Dec 2014, 03:23 PM
So all up in the past 6 months by selling your house it has cost you through direct costs and lost growth $32,780.

you can make up any fairy-tale you like how the money you have invested has returned some huge return to counter act these prices
He put a lot of it into gold, which is currently down on his purchase price, and providing zero yield. So you are spot on... Jimbo needs the housing market to fall significantly in order to justify the decision to sell his home and buy gold. At this stage it is looking like he has made a similar mistake to that made by Crazy Ted in 2011 when Ted sold his Sydney home and piled the proceeds into gold (at the peak of the gold bubble).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Jimbo
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Mike
20 Dec 2014, 03:23 PM
Yes that past 6 months have been interesting with prices rising, up almost 3% in the past 3 months alone.

In your preferred area of Waikiki it is up 9.3% as of 12th of December 2014. I am assuming you missed half or more of this growth as you stated you had sold your house by August 1st. Since then Waikiki has continued to grow. So we will assume 4% growth since you sold at the median price of $410,000 to be fair. That is $16,400 in potential you have missed out as a minimum.




Prices are up 2.92% over the last quarter but only up by 1.62% over the last year. This means that at some point, prices fell backwards. Prices always go up in spring according to you so your spring bounce has seen a gain of only 1.62% over the year which is below inflation.

Quote:
 
In your preferred area of Waikiki it is up 9.3% as of 12th of December 2014. I am assuming you missed half or more of this growth as you stated you had sold your house by August 1st. Since then Waikiki has continued to grow. So we will assume 4% growth since you sold at the median price of $410,000 to be fair. That is $16,400 in potential you have missed out as a minimum.
Yes Mike, Waikiki did grow and I took that growth when I sold. I am watching the local market like a hawk at the moment and I know for a fact that I could not get the same price for my property today. I would have to discount by at least 10% to match other listings of the same type.

There are 25% more properties listed for sale in my area than there were when I sold. There are 50% more properties to rent than there were when I sold.

Like I said before Mike, I didn't do what I did on a whim. Everything I have said about population growth, resources slowdown and overbuilding is playing out.

Shadow
20 Dec 2014, 03:33 PM
He put a lot of it into gold, which is currently down on his purchase price, and providing zero yield. So you are spot on... Jimbo needs the housing market to fall significantly in order to justify the decision to sell his home and buy gold. At this stage it is looking like he has made a similar mistake to that made by Crazy Ted in 2011 when Ted sold his Sydney home and piled the proceeds into gold (at the peak of the gold bubble).
I put 10% in Gold. It is in positive territory in AUD terms so I haven't lost anything. I have other investments that are performing quite well at the moment. They are more than paying my rent.

Edited by Jimbo, 20 Dec 2014, 03:50 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Mike
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Jimbo
20 Dec 2014, 03:45 PM
Prices are up 2.92% over the last quarter but only up by 1.62% over the last year. This means that at some point, prices fell backwards. Prices always go up in spring according to you so your spring bounce has seen a gain of only 1.62% over the year which is below inflation.


Yes Mike, Waikiki did grow and I took that growth when I sold. I am watching the local market like a hawk at the moment and I know for a fact that I could not get the same price for my property today. I would have to discount by at least 10% to match other listings of the same type.

There are 25% more properties listed for sale in my area than there were when I sold. There are 50% more properties to rent than there were when I sold.

Like I said before Mike, I didn't do what I did on a whim. Everything I have said about population growth, resources slowdown and overbuilding is playing out.


I put 10% in Gold. It is in positive territory in AUD terms so I haven't lost anything. I have other investments that are performing quite well at the moment. They are more than paying my rent.

So you like to cherry pick the dates you buy and sell and make the maximum return, funny that. I say the same thing.

I bought a number of properties and land in 2011, since then prices are up 17.6% if not more. I do not also buy and sell on a whim.

I like how you ignored how much money you lost or spent while waiting for this crash, plus no comment on the money you have made since with your investments of the proceeds as you owned your home. Sounds to me like you have lost a pile on money and you know it.

So happens if prices keep rising and in come months from no Perth is another 4-5% higher. You will then have been renting for a year or more and still waiting. Your losses will be being very significant by this point.

Edited by Mike, 20 Dec 2014, 04:22 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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TheTruth
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Perthite
20 Dec 2014, 12:45 PM
how big we going to be by 2020?

Muppets.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/25815737/victorians-drag-down-wa-growth/

Gutted just like I said.

You took it hook line and sinker didn't you.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0

Highest rate of growth in the country.
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