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Perth house sales drop while prices rise
Topic Started: 2 Nov 2014, 03:51 PM (2,101 Views)
Elastic
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Yeah but the point is that REI use raw figures and don't make these adjustments.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Jimbo
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:44 PM
You need to take a course in statistic's and learn that there's ways to account for compositional bias. Rpdata even talk about it on their website.
Which is why RP data has a price index. You will note that the current index number is 613.00 and is down 0.31% on the quarter.

Frighteningly, it is down 10 points in the last week.

Tell me again about medians?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Veritas
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:44 PM
You need to take a course in statistic's and learn that there's ways to account for compositional bias. Rpdata even talk about it on their website.
What does the fact that the median price for a first time buyer property has dropped twenty thousand dollars in two months?

Thats the equvalent of what many FTBs could save in a year.

Any thoughts on the matter?

Or rather, what is THE TRUTH?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Jimbo
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Veritas
2 Nov 2014, 10:51 PM
Or rather, what is THE TRUTH?
Skamy will know the answer to that one.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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TheTruth
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Veritas
2 Nov 2014, 10:51 PM
What does the fact that the median price for a first time buyer property has dropped twenty thousand dollars in two months?

Thats the equvalent of what many FTBs could save in a year.

Any thoughts on the matter?

Or rather, what is THE TRUTH?
It's $10,000 from peak to trough in the last 2 months. Go right ahead and annualise it, we all know you want to.

Long term the bounce from it's post GFC low is over $60,000. So my thoughts on this are that waiting for a big crash is a fools game, when you see a good dip in price and are looking to buy then go for it.
Jimbo
2 Nov 2014, 10:48 PM
Tell me again about medians?
Like I said, get some eduction.
Edited by TheTruth, 2 Nov 2014, 10:59 PM.
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Elastic
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:58 PM
It's $10,000 from peak to trough in the last 2 months. Go right ahead and annualise it, we all know you want to.

Long term the bounce from it's post GFC low is over $60,000. So my thoughts on this are that waiting for a big crash is a fools game, when you see a good dip in price and are looking to buy then go for it.

Like I said, get some eduction.
Doh!
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Jimbo
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:58 PM
Like I said, get some eduction.
Got that already. Engineering degrees don't fall off trees you know.

A million plus in the bank doesn't happen by accident.

I didn't sell my (fully paid for) very nice house on a whim.


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Veritas
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:58 PM
It's $10,000 from peak to trough in the last 2 months. Go right ahead and annualise it, we all know you want to.

Long term the bounce from it's post GFC low is over $60,000. So my thoughts on this are that waiting for a big crash is a fools game, when you see a good dip in price and are looking to buy then go for it.

Like I said, get some eduction.
Actually, we are both wrong.

The Treasury datasheet says the following.

September FTB median: 450k

June: 470k

So down 20 k in two months, just not the last two, the previous two.

How much do you think it will have fallen between September and November?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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peter fraser
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Jimbo
2 Nov 2014, 10:36 PM
The median is the middle value of properties actually sold. Over the long term it will indicate overall price movement but what is going on now is not a normal market and the recent median price rise is a symptom of that.

I am tracking just over 400 properties in the 600k plus bracket and those that are selling are discounting heavily. This has led to an increase in sales in that price range whilst the lower end houses (around 400k) are not moving as quickly (if at all).

So more (albeit heavily discounted) higher priced houses selling will skew the median up (especially if lower priced entry level properties are not selling).

My avatar may suggest a doomsayer and my habit of holding 10% of my assets in shiny stuff reinforces that. However, I understand the local economy and property market and Perth is in deep shit at the moment.

That is why I sold in June and I am so bloody glad that I did.





House prices in Perth may turn down and if they do I'm sure you will crow about it, but until then I'll stick with Core Logic who have experience over many countries and track a lot more house sales than you do.

You decided to sell your house and convert the proceeds to gold. That was risk that you took and you will reap the rewards or pay the price and that's as it should be.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

When the penny finally drops that houses are a money pit, that just keep sucking the money out of the owners pockets.

Peter
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