Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3
  • 4
Perth house sales drop while prices rise
Topic Started: 2 Nov 2014, 03:51 PM (2,099 Views)
Mike
Default APF Avatar


http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/2014/11/01/perth-house-sales-drop-while-prices-rise.html

Quote:
 
Home buyers in Perth are still unlikely to find a bargain despite a drop in sales and more properties hitting the market.Data from the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) shows the median price for a home in Western Australia's capital lifted by almost one per cent in the September quarter to $548,000.

At the same time sales turnover for houses dropped to its lowest level in two years and property listings are trending quickly upwards.According to REIWA sales turnover for Perth houses is 12 per cent below average but turnover for units, apartments and villas had a seven per cent spike last quarter.

First home buyers also paid less for the keys to their first home.The median purchase price for first home buyers dropped by $24,500 between July and September.'This is good news for first home buyers on one hand,' REIWA president David Airey said.'But it also shows they are becoming harder to find in the established home market.

'The news is also good for renters with prices in Perth dropping about $10 to a median of $450 per week for houses and $430 a week for units, apartments and villas.REIWA figures show regional WA bucked the falling sales trend in the capital with sales turnover virtually unchanged during the quarter.AAP - See more at:

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/2014/11/01/perth-house-sales-drop-while-prices-rise.html#sthash.wztZ7V7a.dpuf
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


Mike
2 Nov 2014, 03:51 PM
I don't think it's safe to come out of your bunker yet.

http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily-indices.html
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Mike
2 Nov 2014, 03:51 PM
The median rising does not indicate that house prices overall are rising. You know that Mike. Why post this bullshit?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Jimbo
2 Nov 2014, 09:22 PM
The median rising does not indicate that house prices overall are rising.
Lol - what does indicate rising and falling prices then?
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Elastic
Member Avatar


My suspicion is that some investors are starting to sell their ips as the vacancy rates have increased and rental prices dropped. This would explain the spike in apartments and units being sold and the slight fallback in the vacancy rates the past couple of months.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
TheTruth
Default APF Avatar


Jimbo
2 Nov 2014, 09:22 PM
The median rising does not indicate that house prices overall are rising. You know that Mike. Why post this bullshit?
Let me guess, if a single house doesn't rise in value it indicates prices are falling?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Elastic
2 Nov 2014, 10:23 PM
My suspicion is that some investors are starting to sell their ips as the vacancy rates have increased and rental prices dropped. This would explain the spike in apartments and units being sold and the slight fallback in the vacancy rates the past couple of months.
The smart investors will be taking profits now. Yes.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Elastic
Member Avatar


REI price changes are notoriously volatile because they don't adjust for certain factors like the other indices.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


peter fraser
2 Nov 2014, 10:16 PM
Lol - what does indicate rising and falling prices then?
The median is the middle value of properties actually sold. Over the long term it will indicate overall price movement but what is going on now is not a normal market and the recent median price rise is a symptom of that.

I am tracking just over 400 properties in the 600k plus bracket and those that are selling are discounting heavily. This has led to an increase in sales in that price range whilst the lower end houses (around 400k) are not moving as quickly (if at all).

So more (albeit heavily discounted) higher priced houses selling will skew the median up (especially if lower priced entry level properties are not selling).

My avatar may suggest a doomsayer and my habit of holding 10% of my assets in shiny stuff reinforces that. However, I understand the local economy and property market and Perth is in deep shit at the moment.

That is why I sold in June and I am so bloody glad that I did.






Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
TheTruth
Default APF Avatar


Jimbo
2 Nov 2014, 10:36 PM
The median is the middle value of properties actually sold. Over the long term it will indicate overall price movement but what is going on now is not a normal market and the recent median price rise is a symptom of that.

I am tracking just over 400 properties in the 600k plus bracket and those that are selling are discounting heavily. This has led to an increase in sales in that price range whilst the lower end houses (around 400k) are not moving as quickly (if at all).

So more (albeit heavily discounted) higher priced houses selling will skew the median up (especially if lower priced entry level properties are not selling).

My avatar may suggest a doomsayer and my habit of holding 10% of my assets in shiny stuff reinforces that. However, I understand the local economy and property market and Perth is in deep shit at the moment.

That is why I sold in June and I am so bloody glad that I did.





You need to take a course in statistic's and learn that there's ways to account for compositional bias. Rpdata even talk about it on their website.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums. Reliable service with over 8 years of experience.
Learn More · Register Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3
  • 4



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy