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Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Topic Started: 1 Nov 2014, 07:06 PM (4,031 Views)
peter fraser
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Gossamer
2 Nov 2014, 09:45 PM
Well they created the mess in the first place so one can't say that they sat on their hands and did nothing.
Regardless of post mortem results, the Fed had no choice but to do what it had to, and that was very predictable.

If the question was "Gee who have guessed the Fed would tale drastic action" then the answer is "everyone except Peter Schiff and hard core bears."
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Ned Flanders
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peter fraser
2 Nov 2014, 09:02 PM
Actually the only thing that was completely predictable was that the Fed WOULD take action to normalise asset prices and the economy. He should have known that.

Their charter is not to sit on their hands and do nothing in a financial crisis.
So, the Fed's charter is to keep asset prices high?

I must admit, I didn't pay much attention to American affairs for most of the noughties, so it came as a surprise to me when the country that used to champion some brand of free market capitalism became so socialist that it was completely predictable that the central bank would intervene to set market prices.

Do you think the Fed will continue to set market prices for assets? Will they expand their remit to commodities and consumer goods to keep prices high and prevent deflation?
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" ... which is that all-too-familiar dynamic in Irish life where people tell lies, cover them up and create all sorts of collateral damage, sometimes spread out over decades, and never take responsibility."
- Alan Glynn
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TheTruth
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Ned Flanders
2 Nov 2014, 10:42 PM
So, the Fed's charter is to keep asset prices high?

I must admit, I didn't pay much attention to American affairs for most of the noughties, so it came as a surprise to me when the country that used to champion some brand of free market capitalism became so socialist that it was completely predictable that the central bank would intervene to set market prices.

Do you think the Fed will continue to set market prices for assets? Will they expand their remit to commodities and consumer goods to keep prices high and prevent deflation?
Maybe dial the emotion back from crazy and read what peter said.
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TheTruth
2 Nov 2014, 10:46 PM
Maybe dial the emotion back from crazy and read what peter said.
Maybe add something decent for once.

Otherwise I might need to start a couple of threads showing the truth.

Heres a little warm up......enjoy........No more silly non sense or I will relay the truth hard and fast.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/a-sign-that-chinas-economy-is-on-the-verge-of/5357700
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Veritas
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Ned Flanders
2 Nov 2014, 10:42 PM
So, the Fed's charter is to keep asset prices high?

I must admit, I didn't pay much attention to American affairs for most of the noughties, so it came as a surprise to me when the country that used to champion some brand of free market capitalism became so socialist that it was completely predictable that the central bank would intervene to set market prices.

Do you think the Fed will continue to set market prices for assets? Will they expand their remit to commodities and consumer goods to keep prices high and prevent deflation?
Well, yeah.

They are charged with preventing deflation.

Systemic deflation, once initiated, is devastating.

Having said that, Im very curious to see what replaces debt driven consumer demand as an economic model.

Posted Image
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Veritas
2 Nov 2014, 11:26 PM
Well, yeah.

They are charged with preventing deflation.

Systemic deflation, once initiated, is devastating.

Having said that, Im very curious to see what replaces debt driven consumer demand as an economic model.
The visciuos roundabout I mentioned earlier.

The bulls are finally learning.....the truth......

Like I said earlier....great thread shadow.......

Educating the herd......and learning the truth......
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

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1 Nov 2014, 07:41 PM
The fact is, Schiff was so right it was not funny.
He was right about one thing, but wrong about most things. So he got one lucky guess, but the rest of his predictions have been a disaster.
Jimbo
1 Nov 2014, 10:26 PM
Peter Schiff is right most of the time. What he predicts will play out and anyone with a basic understanding of maths can work it out for themselves.

He put dates on his predictions... inflation in 2008 and 2009, the dollar to lose 50% of its value in 2010, US stocks to head lower in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Once you put dates on a prediction, I think you need to get reasonably close to those dates, and at least get the direction right. If the opposite to your prediction occurs over the dates you stated (as is that case for those mentioned above), then I think it's pretty hard to argue you just got the timing wrong.
Edited by Shadow, 3 Nov 2014, 08:23 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
3 Nov 2014, 08:14 AM
He was right about one thing, but wrong about most things. So he got one lucky guess, but the rest of his predictions have been a disaster.
Aother thread gone wrong, most bulls know not to start these type of threads anymore, because with the constant flow of bad news coming out daily, they know there rubbish will be shot down, educated the herd even more.

Now back the the thread, the facts, and the bulls delusion and saying he got one thing right.

The facts.

Since he has been telling people to buy gold, it is up 500% in vaule and was closer to being up 1000% at one stage.

Told people house prices would collapse soon, they did and even with all this bs stimulus and rates at zero for over six years, house prices in California are 20% cheaper than they were in 2004.

He told people in 2006 that the stock market would collapse in 2007 or 2008, it did.

He told people the decline would last years or decades, over six years later and rates still at zero, it aint working anymore. Right again.

But trolls here want to sit he and continually claim he got one thing right :bl:

Oh the desperation and fear, cannot even acknowledge the facts.

Or won the lottery

Like I said, another great thread strawman.

People can see what he said, and see if he only got 'one' thing right ;)

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw
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A Lurker
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Veritas
2 Nov 2014, 11:26 PM


Having said that, Im very curious to see what replaces debt driven consumer demand as an economic model.

Immigration.
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A Lurker
3 Nov 2014, 09:10 AM
Immigration.
The US have already tried that one. We can see the results, nearly 50 million on food stamps, up from 17 million in 2008.
Just more mouths to feed when it all goes wrong and you don't have jobs for them.

What they once thought was their debt ponzi saviour has merely become the extra overburden now. :bl:

When I was in primary school, the population here was around 12 million, not sure about the US, but there population over this time has probably grown by about 100 million people and our population around 10 million.

Why has immigration and therefore population growth not stopped their house prices and economy declining ?

How could house prices in California be 20% cheaper than in 2004 with all these people ?

It blows the immigration argument out of the water.
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