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Reserve Bank says housing crash will not improve affordability.; Luci at it again
Topic Started: 28 Oct 2014, 01:04 PM (6,490 Views)
Veritas
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miw
29 Oct 2014, 01:35 AM
Nobody has done a job on Veritas. He's already on record in this thread saying "The Crash is the Recovery".

In other words, he is happy for others to go through any amount of pain, including the people he cynically purports to represent the interests of as long as he can get his cheap house.

Not only is he a selfish POS, he's dumb enough to believe that (a) post crash he would be able to buy something he can't buy now, and (b) posting bile-spattered rants on this forum is going to make one lick of difference.
You are completely missing the point.

Bubble burst because they must. Blame should be apportioned to the causes of the bubble, not the consequences.

Ireland was taught a lesson and it was a good lesson to learn and the inevitable conclusion of the madness that preceded it.

If i was driving a car down a dark country road at 120kph and hit a roo, crash, and kill my passengers, who is to blame?

Its the same basic principle.
skamy
29 Oct 2014, 01:45 AM
It was not the bubble that damaged Ireland so much as the onerous task of bailing out shonky developer lending by German Banks and US speculators.
The rest of your post is a lot of hyperbole. The crash in the UK was much worse in the 1990s as interest rates were so high there was so many mortagee sales etc. Ireland did not see this and low interest rates helped people survive.

Why don't you read the history of Canary Wharf in London, if you are interested in opening your mind ?

Over and over and over again these crash spruikers have lied to you, yet you still believe their silly nonsense about a crash being a recovery. Tell that to the people of Ireland who lost their jobs and to the families of those who committed suicide as the banks ripped everything from them. You have a cheek to call me offensive.
Quote:
 
It was not the bubble that damaged Ireland so much as the onerous task of bailing out shonky developer lending by German Banks and US speculators.


Clueless aren't you?

Irish banks had to be bailed out because of the bad loans they had on their books. Those loans were made to property developers who were feeding the bubble. More recently, Irish banks are suffering from delinquent mortgages on their books; loans made during the bubble.

Quote:
 
The rest of your post is a lot of hyperbole. The crash in the UK was much worse in the 1990s as interest rates were so high there was so many mortagee sales etc. Ireland did not see this and low interest rates helped people survive.

Why don't you read the history of Canary Wharf in London, if you are interested in opening your mind ?

Over and over and over again these crash spruikers have lied to you, yet you still believe their silly nonsense about a crash being a recovery. Tell that to the people of Ireland who lost their jobs and to the families of those who committed suicide as the banks ripped everything from them. You have a cheek to call me offensive.


What are you blabbering on about? All I did was summarize your position. What part did I get wrong?

The banks did not rip up anything. The banks were guaranteed by the Government. debts and all.

People borrowed stupid amount of money for over priced houses and then the music stopped.

You want people to benefit to from the upside of property investment but cry foul when the deal goes sour.

Edited by Veritas, 29 Oct 2014, 01:55 AM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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miw
29 Oct 2014, 01:35 AM
Nobody has done a job on Veritas. He's already on record in this thread saying "The Crash is the Recovery".

In other words, he is happy for others to go through any amount of pain, including the people he cynically purports to represent the interests of as long as he can get his cheap house.

Not only is he a selfish POS, he's dumb enough to believe that (a) post crash he would be able to buy something he can't buy now, and (b) posting bile-spattered rants on this forum is going to make one lick of difference.
He genuinely seems to have no idea how offensive he is. I don't know what he has against the poor old Irish.

When I was back there a few weeks ago people could not believe it when I told them there were Australians who were hoping for an Irish style crash.
Veritas
29 Oct 2014, 01:46 AM
You are completely missing the point.

Bubble burst because they must. Blame should be apportioned to the causes of the bubble, not the consequences.

Ireland was taught a lesson and it was a good lesson to learn and the inevitable conclusion of the madness that preceded it.

If i was driving a car down a dark country road at 120kph and hit a roo, crash, and kill my passengers, who is to blame?

Its the same basic principle.




Clueless aren't you?

Irish banks had to be bailed out because of the bad loans they had on their books. Those loans were made to property developers who were feeding the bubble. More recently, Irish banks are suffering from delinquent mortgages on their books; loans made during the bubble.




What are you blabbering on about? All I did was summarize your position. What part did I get wrong?

The banks did not rip up anything. The banks were guaranteed by the Government. debts and all.

People borrowed stupid amount of money for over priced houses and then the music stopped.

You want people to benefit to from the upside of property investment but cry foul when the deal goes sour.

Your naivety is incredible, I have been over and over this with you yet you still swallow that ridiculous MSM line.

You are a lost cause for another few years I think.
Edited by skamy, 29 Oct 2014, 01:59 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
29 Oct 2014, 01:56 AM
He genuinely seems to have no idea how offensive he is. I don't know what he has against the poor old Irish.

When I was back there a few weeks ago people could not believe it when I told them there were Australians who were hoping for an Irish style crash.
The difference between you and me is that i am using facts to back up my argument whereas you are spouting emotive rubbish.

Quote:
 
It was not the bubble that damaged Ireland so much as the onerous task of bailing out shonky developer lending by German Banks and US speculators.


This is your analysis of the irish situation and it is entirely wrong.

1. Irish developers were not being funded by German banks. That is total bollox. They were being funded by Irish banks who were borrowing from German banks. Huge difference.

2. US speculators? What US speculators are you talking about? Please explain.

Most Irish people know damn well that the problems began long before the crash.

That is because people who are not fucking idiots can distinguish between cause and effect.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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bundy
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miw
29 Oct 2014, 01:35 AM
Nobody has done a job on Veritas. He's already on record in this thread saying "The Crash is the Recovery".

In other words, he is happy for others to go through any amount of pain, including the people he cynically purports to represent the interests of as long as he can get his cheap house.

Not only is he a selfish POS, he's dumb enough to believe that (a) post crash he would be able to buy something he can't buy now, and (b) posting bile-spattered rants on this forum is going to make one lick of difference.
So you're saying that:

1. An unbalanced situation has been brought about by various forces.
2. A bunch of people naively hinged their financial well being on the maintenance of this situation.
3. Therefore this situation must be maintained at all costs?

What kind of broken logic is this?

You could just as easily make the case for the people who SUFFER from this unbalanced situation:
3. Therefore this situation must be corrected.

All of this is moot though, because reality doesn't have any obligation to meet your expectations (whatever they may be).
Edited by bundy, 29 Oct 2014, 03:05 AM.
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Lep
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In nominal terms Irish house prices will definitely get back to and then exceed their last peak. It's inevitable.

But in real terms and income adjusted terms, very unlikely.
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Sydneyite
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miw
29 Oct 2014, 01:35 AM
skamy
29 Oct 2014, 01:11 AM
The doomers have sure done a job on you Veritas
Nobody has done a job on Veritas. He's already on record in this thread saying "The Crash is the Recovery".

In other words, he is happy for others to go through any amount of pain, including the people he cynically purports to represent the interests of as long as he can get his cheap house.

Not only is he a selfish POS, he's dumb enough to believe that (a) post crash he would be able to buy something he can't buy now, and (b) posting bile-spattered rants on this forum is going to make one lick of difference.
miw - that was a feisty post! :oo:
bundy
29 Oct 2014, 03:05 AM
miw
29 Oct 2014, 01:35 AM
Nobody has done a job on Veritas. He's already on record in this thread saying "The Crash is the Recovery".

In other words, he is happy for others to go through any amount of pain, including the people he cynically purports to represent the interests of as long as he can get his cheap house.

Not only is he a selfish POS, he's dumb enough to believe that (a) post crash he would be able to buy something he can't buy now, and (b) posting bile-spattered rants on this forum is going to make one lick of difference.
So you're saying that:

1. An unbalanced situation has been brought about by various forces.
2. A bunch of people naively hinged their financial well being on the maintenance of this situation.
3. Therefore this situation must be maintained at all costs?

What kind of broken logic is this?

You could just as easily make the case for the people who SUFFER from this unbalanced situation:
3. Therefore this situation must be corrected.

All of this is moot though, because reality doesn't have any obligation to meet your expectations (whatever they may be).
No he is saying that:

1. A heap of people are mistaking a normal, explainable market situation as an unbalanced situation brought about by various forces.
2. A bunch of people naively hinged their future financial well being on the belief that this market will correct, and that if it does they will somehow magically escape the economic carnage and be able to buy a house on the cheap.
3. Therefore they must believe in "the bubble" at all costs, less the magnitude of their failure consume their waking and sleeping thoughts....

:lol
Edited by Sydneyite, 29 Oct 2014, 09:58 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Glenn Stevens
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While I'm not unsympathetic to the issues and concerns Veritas and some of you have raised in the discussions on this thread, as well as the feedback I've received from other young people trying to enter the property market, I'd just like to reiterate the following observations.

At a macro level, pressures on affordability of both purchased and rental housing have eased somewhat since the previous Senate inquiry on this topic (that was in 2008, in case you've forgotten). To put this another way, housing affordability has improved and I think this is something that some of us might be overlooking. The experience of specific groups in the population may, of course, differ.

Secondly, there is no shortage of housing finance in Australia. Mortgages are available at reasonable cost from a range of lenders, and households are not artificially constrained from borrowing as much as they can reasonably be expected to repay. Some of the (localised) examples of laxer lending standards seen in the years leading up to the global financial crisis have become less prevalent. This is a welcome development and should not be seen as an unwarranted constraint.

Thirdly, while it's true that Australian housing prices increased by about two-thirds relative to income in the decade or so up to around the end of 2003, as Shadow regularly has noted on this forum, this was primarily a secular shift resulting from disinflation and financial deregulation. Now that this transition is over, the rates of price growth and borrowing seen in that period should not be expected to re-occur, nor would it be desirable if they did.

Finally, whenever rising demand results in higher prices, the question arises of why supply cannot expand enough to prevent this. Australia faces a number of longstanding challenges in this area, including regulatory and zoning constraints, inherent geographical barriers and the cost structure of the building industry. There are also obstacles to affordable housing created by Australia's unusually low-density urban structure. Although the share of detached housing in Australia's housing stock is still high relative to that in other industrialised countries, the mix of housing is shifting to higher-density forms such as apartments and townhouses. This evolution to a more internationally typical housing mix has a number of potential benefits, including more efficient use of well-located land and a greater variety of housing options that can meet diverse needs. However, it also implies that construction costs could be higher, the time lag to project completion could be longer and the short-term responsiveness of supply could decline.

So in summarising, I think one could observe that the situation, whilst it does remain challenging for Australians looking to buy their first home, it is nonetheless improving, the evidence would suggest it has improved in recent years. The other thing to say is a significant number of Australian FHB do manage to buy their first home each year, so it can be done and is being done with some success, and that's a welcome development and should be a cause for optimism.
Edited by Glenn Stevens, 29 Oct 2014, 10:17 AM.
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Veritas
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Quote:
 
No he is saying that:

1. A heap of people are mistaking a normal, explainable market situation as an unbalanced situation brought about by various forces.
2. A bunch of people naively hinged their future financial well being on the belief that this market will correct, and that if it does they will somehow magically escape the economic carnage and be able to buy a house on the cheap.
3. Therefore they must believe in "the bubble" at all costs, less the magnitude of their failure consume their waking and sleeping thoughts....
No he is saying that:

1. A heap of people are mistaking a normal, explainable market situation as an unbalanced situation brought about by various forces.
2. A bunch of people naively hinged their future financial well being on the belief that this market will correct, and that if it does they will somehow magically escape the economic carnage and be able to buy a house on the cheap.
3. Therefore they must believe in "the bubble" at all costs, less the magnitude of their failure consume their waking and sleeping thoughts....


The discussion was about the Irish housing market and property bubble.

Care to reframe your thoughts in that context?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Veritas
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Interesting that Skamy can get away with such nonsense and bull fact checkers, so active in other threads, don't bat an eye.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Veritas
29 Oct 2014, 02:00 AM
The difference between you and me is that i am using facts to back up my argument whereas you are spouting emotive rubbish.




This is your analysis of the irish situation and it is entirely wrong.

1. Irish developers were not being funded by German banks. That is total bollox. They were being funded by Irish banks who were borrowing from German banks. Huge difference.

2. US speculators? What US speculators are you talking about? Please explain.

Most Irish people know damn well that the problems began long before the crash.

That is because people who are not fucking idiots can distinguish between cause and effect.
Veritas you do not use facts. You have proposed your own theory that Australia is just like Ireland and you bend and twist everything to fit this silly theory.

Quote:
 
At the end of the third quarter of 2010, German banks had between US$186.4 Billion[3] and $208.3 Billion in total exposure to Ireland with $57.8 billion in exposure to Irish banks[4][5] Most of this borrowing was re-cycled by the banks into property loans. This, in turn, led to a massive increase in the price of Irish property assets.[6]



I have tried over and over to explain to you what happened in Ireland but you refuse to accept basic facts, the banks being the middle man makes no difference to the fact that this money headed straight into Irish property to ride the Irish boom.
Edited by skamy, 30 Oct 2014, 03:34 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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