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Australian property prices in 2003 - bubble extreme!; "There was an intense bubble in the property market a decade ago."
Topic Started: 24 Oct 2014, 10:53 AM (2,297 Views)
stinkbug
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https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-housing-facing-repeat-2003-223500342.html
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Glenn Stevens
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The RBA will monitor risks from rising property prices during this period of record-low interest rates. Housing prices are continuing to increase in the larger cities and we consider that the risks associated with this trend warrant ongoing close observation. Accommodative monetary policy is supporting demand in some sectors of the economy, but policy also needs to be cognizant of the risks to future growth that could accompany a large further build-up in asset prices, particularly if that was associated with an increase in leverage.
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Glenn Stevens
24 Oct 2014, 11:01 AM
policy also needs to be cognizant of the risks to future growth that could accompany a large further build-up in asset prices, particularly if that was associated with an increase in leverage.


We already had a rather large further build up in asset prices over 2009-2010 , and a further increase in leverage back then ,when other economies had house prices reducing at the time.

And then we dropped rates to new record lows again in 2011, which has then caused another rather large build up in asset prices and even more leverage again.

So we have had two rather large further builds ups in asset prices when on both times leverage and debtlevels exceeded the previous levels.

How many more further large build ups in asset prices and further increasing in debt levels do we need before you realize the extent to which this effects the overall economy moving forward and in future.
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skamy
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Glen you need to keep a very close eye on prices to detect the Australian bubble

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This is Ireland and don't let anyone tell you we are different.

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Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
24 Oct 2014, 11:56 AM
Glen you need to keep a very close eye on prices to detect the Australian bubble

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This is Ireland and don't let anyone tell you we are different.

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:re:

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Edited by Veritas, 24 Oct 2014, 12:08 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Bardon
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24 Oct 2014, 11:42 AM


We already had a rather large further build up in asset prices over 2009-2010 , and a further increase in leverage back then ,when other economies had house prices reducing at the time.

And then we dropped rates to new record lows again in 2011, which has then caused another rather large build up in asset prices and even more leverage again.

So we have had two rather large further builds ups in asset prices when on both times leverage and debtlevels exceeded the previous levels.

How many more further large build ups in asset prices and further increasing in debt levels do we need before you realize the extent to which this effects the overall economy moving forward and in future.
There is a very poignant historical statement about our banking system that twas coined many years ago and is destined to repeat itself in our current monetary system:

"The banks were saved but the people were ruined".
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Blondie girl
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Yeah

We do need to reognize & understand the history of what's the negatives that's occurred in Oz & other developed countries.

I found Japan really interesting, one of my Brothers took the time to explain the damage fall out when R/E prices in Japan collapsed in the early nineties.

Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Ex BP Golly
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Bardon
24 Oct 2014, 01:04 PM
There is a very poignant historical statement about our banking system that twas coined many years ago and is destined to repeat itself in our current monetary system:

"The banks were saved but the people were ruined".
Welfarising the banks is fine as long as you turn them into paupers.
Blondie girl
24 Oct 2014, 01:22 PM
Yeah

We do need to reognize & understand the history of what's the negatives that's occurred in Oz & other developed countries.

I found Japan really interesting, one of my Brothers took the time to explain the damage fall out when R/E prices in Japan collapsed in the early nineties.

Looks just like our equity bubble, Duninit.
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 24 Oct 2014, 01:30 PM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Blondie girl
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Golly
I'm sure we all don't hope for crash conditions, really think about that...bear & bully.

Pease do realize ...
I'm not leveraged up anymore,so I'm not going to be really impacted financially...but here's the reality ... I would look for someone else's lost opportunities & let time do its thing.

Sounds harsh, but that's the way it goes ..nothing personal just bizness.

Each to their own golly.

Simple as that.
Blondie girl
24 Oct 2014, 09:31 PM
Golly
I'm sure we all don't hope for crash conditions, really think about that...bear & bully.

Pease do realize ...
I'm not leveraged up anymore,so I'm not going to be really impacted financially...but here's the reality ... I would look for someone else's lost opportunities & let time do its thing.

Sounds harsh, but that's the way it goes ..nothing personal just bizness.

Each to their own golly.

Simple as that.
I want to reiterate.

I sincerely hope for no crash, but nothing's ever ever impossible in the future.

Stagnation is not my enemy either the kids are set up, they just need to accrue what's there..hopefully they use their initiative, that's our goal, because times will get tougher for my 3. I can only guide & do so much but I don't wish to spoil them.
Edited by Blondie girl, 24 Oct 2014, 09:38 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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skamy
24 Oct 2014, 11:56 AM
Glen you need to keep a very close eye on prices to detect the Australian bubble

Posted Image

This is Ireland and don't let anyone tell you we are different.

Posted Image
I love that you've used two entirely different measures, across two entirely different time scales. This is meant to somehow proves your point?

Median vs Index and 2006-2014 vs 1990-2010.

Find a graph or make one, that uses the same measure, over the same time period, if you want to be credible. Otherwise, you're clearly trying to hoodwink the people around you.
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