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APM Australian Property Monitors September Quarter 2014 Results; National median house price up 1.2% for September quarter, largely due to Sydney price growth
Topic Started: 23 Oct 2014, 04:10 PM (1,661 Views)
Glenn Stevens
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Shadow
24 Oct 2014, 08:01 AM
yet here we are in 2014 and Sydney prices are up another 30% since 2011.
In 2013-14 house prices grew more than 10 per cent nationally and 15 per cent in Sydney, driven by a big rise in investor activity, mostly in existing homes. I think an emphasis on increasing the supply of housing is needed to slow price increases. We can’t improve housing affordability simply by adding to demand. Targeted assistance can certainly help particular groups such as first-home buyers, but without a supply-side response, any generalised increase in demand will just be capitalised into prices. Investor loan approvals had increased by about 90 per cent over the past two years. It's against that background that the RBA believes the composition of housing and mortgage market activity is becoming unbalanced. That said, I want to emphasise that the banks in Australia are resilient, and mortgage lending in this country has historically been relatively safe.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

dave289
20 Feb 2012, 01:17 PM
http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9404535/6/#post8515102

dave sold his house with a view to protect his asstes , buying in at a lower price will just be one of the benefits of this

I only paid 1.5% commision on my house , a mate of mine sold it for me , I have known him since 5 years of age . as for the school kids

I think I stand to lose nothing , if by some miracle , they went up 5 or so percent then I would stand to lose a small amount, if they keep dropping 10,20,30,40% then I am well ahead , what do you think is the better gamble as you put it pete ,standing to lose 5% or standing to loose 40% by not selling now , or standing to get the gain when I buy back in at much cheaper . I let you do the math.

AS for missing the bottom of the market , lets just say I pay close attention to a lot of things , so know I will not be too far away from the bottom just as I was not to far away from the top. And lets just say the bottoms a long way off yet , so the bottom I jump on will be a lot lower than now

If prices go down 30% and then they come up another ten percent then I am still ahead even though I missed the bottom .
Ted, you say you pay close attention to a lot of things, and after selling your Sydney home in 2011 you are getting ready to jump back in when prices hit the bottom.

How close are we... are we near the bottom yet?
dave289
 
if by some miracle , they went up 5 or so percent then I would stand to lose a small amount, if they keep dropping 10,20,30,40% then I am well ahead
As miracles would have it, Sydney went by over 30% since you sold. Does this mean you lost a lot more than you thought you stood to lose if prices had only increased 5%?

You said if prices dropped 30% you would be well ahead, but prices rose 30%, so does that mean you are well behind?
Edited by Shadow, 24 Oct 2014, 08:43 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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John Frum
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Glenn Stevens
24 Oct 2014, 08:05 AM
That said, I want to emphasise that the banks in Australia are resilient, and mortgage lending in this country has historically been relatively safe.

cool story, bro
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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doubleview
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Glenn Stevens
24 Oct 2014, 08:05 AM
It's against that background that the RBA believes the composition of housing and mortgage market activity is becoming unbalanced. That said, I want to emphasise that the banks in Australia are resilient, and mortgage lending in this country has historically been relatively safe.
Why is it that the RBA stopped publishing the banks derivative exposure of 23 trillion(late 2013) which had risen from approx 13 trillion(2008)?.

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/discontinued-data.html

Why has this been allowed to grow again so fast? where can we find the latest numbers?

@ the height of the GFC that off balance sheet activity was proposed to be bought on to the banks balance sheets making them all insolvent.

That was until the tax payer came to the rescue! does this worry u?
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doubleview
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Glenn Stevens
24 Oct 2014, 08:05 AM
In 2013-14 house prices grew more than 10 per cent nationally and 15 per cent in Sydney, driven by a big rise in investor activity, mostly in existing homes. I think an emphasis on increasing the supply of housing is needed to slow price increases. We can’t improve housing affordability simply by adding to demand. Targeted assistance can certainly help particular groups such as first-home buyers, but without a supply-side response, any generalised increase in demand will just be capitalised into prices. Investor loan approvals had increased by about 90 per cent over the past two years. It's against that background that the RBA believes the composition of housing and mortgage market activity is becoming unbalanced. That said, I want to emphasise that the banks in Australia are resilient, and mortgage lending in this country has historically been relatively safe.
Nothing, something, anything???
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John Frum
24 Oct 2014, 08:17 AM

cool story, bro
Frumpy, perhaps next week I could convince 'Peter Schiff ' ;) to sign up to the forum . Could be very entertaining.....

See how 'Glen' responds then.
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Shadow
24 Oct 2014, 08:01 AM
You've been putting forward the same argument here since 2011... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9164210/12/#post8515097

Can you explain why we should believe you now, when you have been getting it so badly wrong for the past three years?

In 2011 you said the bubble had 'bursted' ... yet here we are in 2014 and Sydney prices are up another 30% since 2011.

Where is the big crash you promised us? Where is the $5000 gold you promised us?
As usual you trolled right past all the reality.

Go back and adrress those, if you could. :)

You asked me earlier what it is about the age thing. Its that you like to Bragg as though you have done well for yourself yet live in this forum, and attack others who have no property or rent or are poor. So I am just pointing out that you being only a couple of years younger wefe yet to enter they market while I had been holding multiple properly long before you entered the market. Where prices had doubled and trioled before you came along. You think you are great because your property went up 20% and make out how well you think you have done. How much do you think two went up long before you came along, over ten years. So you make out like you have done well, but nothing compared to me so Im just putting you back where you belong.
The other thing is ,I own unencumbered property in Sydney and you do not. You pay interest only loans for years on and owe a shitload of money.

I guess my point is you want to carry on and think youve done well and try and rub it in peoples faces. But you have nothing on me and never will. Remember that
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