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ABS 6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Sep 2014. CPI Inflation up 0.5% in September Quarter.; Consumer prices up 0.5% as fruit prices surge
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2014, 03:09 PM (1,834 Views)
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0

All Groups CPI, Quarterly change
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Contribution to quarterly change
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SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

THE ALL GROUPS CPI

rose 0.5% in the September quarter 2014, compared with a rise of 0.5% in the June quarter 2014.
rose 2.3% through the year to the September quarter 2014, compared with a rise of 3.0% through the year to the June quarter 2014.

OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS

The most significant price rises this quarter were for fruit (+14.7%), new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+1.1%), property rates and charges (+6.3%) and other services in respect of motor vehicles (+5.8%).
The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter were for electricity (-5.1%) and automotive fuel (-2.5%).
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Consumer prices up 0.5% as fruit prices surge

October 22, 2014 - 12:51PM
Mark Mulligan

A surprise jump in fruit prices has helped drive consumer prices 0.5 per cent higher in the September quarter as the weaker Aussie dollar increased the cost of imported produce.

House prices, property rates, and vehicle charges also increased, partly offset by falls in prices for electricity, petrol and telecoms equipment and charges.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for the three months to the end of September leaves the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3 per cent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Economists had speculated that the quarter's CPI would be influenced by lower petrol and fruit and vegetable prices, plus the impact of scrapping the carbon tax. The ABS said the removal of the tax had been the main factor in a 5 per cent drop in the cost of electricity.

However, the price of fruit surged nearly 15 per cent, partly because of the weaker Australian dollar. A 2.3 per cent rise in tobacco, another imported product, also weighed on the index, mainly because of an increase in excise at the beginning of the quarter. Bread prices were down 3 per cent.

Housing costs were up across the board, including dwelling prices for owner-occupiers, rents and property rates and charges. Clothing and footwear were down 1 per cent, led by a nearly 4 per cent decline in the headline cost of garments for men.

The price of petrol was down 2.5 per cent, reflecting a 13 per cent slump in Australian dollar terms in the oil price over the past month.

Wednesday's reading means the Reserve Bank of Australia will be able to leave rates on hold for a long time, economists said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/consumer-prices-up-05-as-fruit-prices-surge-20141022-119s1z.html
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Shadow
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Well according to this official data released today, rents rose nationally and in the five largest cities over the past quarter and over the past year.

But Crazy Ted keeps telling me rents are falling everywhere?

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Attachments: ABS_CPI_Rents_Sep14.png (14.37 KB)
Edited by Shadow, 22 Oct 2014, 03:38 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
22 Oct 2014, 03:37 PM
Well according to this official data released today, rents rose nationally and in the five largest cities over the past quarter and over the past year.

But Crazy Ted keeps telling me rents are falling everywhere?

Posted Image
Firstly what your graph highlights, is just how unaccurate it is

The standout of proof, it the red line for Perth, showing a straight up like above anything else. Yet we all know both house and unit rents are ddown almost 10% yoy, and on the back of drops from the previous year

Was just looking at manly rents two minutes ago, some nice drops there, say the word I can post them up, then look at the other areas.
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Shadow
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22 Oct 2014, 06:02 PM
The standout of proof, it the red line for Perth, showing a straight up like above anything else. Yet we all know both house and unit rents are ddown almost 10% yoy, and on the back of drops from the previous year
No, if you look closely at the red line for Perth, it is actually flattening out, rather than 'straight up' as you incorrectly claim.

The ABS data charted above is based on actual rents paid.

The other data you referred to, showing declines, is based on asking rents.

So asking rents have fallen for Perth, yet actual rents being paid continue to rise (but much more slowly than before).

Asking rents is a leading indicator, while actual rents paid is a lagging indicator. This is because most tenants are on one year leases, so most tenants keep paying the same rent for up to a year even after asking rents (for new tenants) fall.

So I expect Perth actual rents paid to decline over coming CPI releases. It looks like it's rolling over already, but still positive, just about. It will probably roll over, similar to what happened in 1990. No big deal... they won't fall much before the next upswing.
Edited by Shadow, 22 Oct 2014, 06:57 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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No, the Perth line is pointing up,higher than anything else, you want to claim it is flat, but is should be pointing down.

As usual absolute bs by the vested interests.

Now for your other fantasy, when rents were compared, they were compared by using previous asking rents with currents asking rents.

So we are comparing like with like. Where the current asking price, maybe the one asking too much.

So your argument is an absolute croc as usual.

I'll find those manly ones if you want and other northern beaches area, so we can see the REAL results, not delusion portrayed by vested interests.
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Shadow
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22 Oct 2014, 07:19 PM
No, the Perth line is pointing up,higher than anything else, you want to claim it is flat, but is should be pointing down.

As usual absolute bs by the vested interests.

Now for your other fantasy, when rents were compared, they were compared by using previous asking rents with currents asking rents.

So we are comparing like with like. Where the current asking price, maybe the one asking too much.

So your argument is an absolute croc as usual.

I'll find those manly ones if you want and other northern beaches area, so we can see the REAL results, not delusion portrayed by vested interests.
It's like talking to a three year old. Never mind Ted. Rents are falling everywhere. The bubble is popping. Ponzi!
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
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Shadow
22 Oct 2014, 06:55 PM
No, if you look closely at the red line for Perth, it is actually flattening out, rather than 'straight up' as you incorrectly claim.

The ABS data charted above is based on actual rents paid.

The other data you referred to, showing declines, is based on asking rents.

So asking rents have fallen for Perth, yet actual rents being paid continue to rise (but much more slowly than before).

Asking rents is a leading indicator, while actual rents paid is a lagging indicator. This is because most tenants are on one year leases, so most tenants keep paying the same rent for up to a year even after asking rents (for new tenants) fall.

So I expect Perth actual rents paid to decline over coming CPI releases. It looks like it's rolling over already, but still positive, just about. It will probably roll over, similar to what happened in 1990. No big deal... they won't fall much before the next upswing.
Shadow... when is the last time you heard a Perth investor on here claims rents where rising?

A friend just secured a 2 by 1 stand alone house in Vic Park WA. Watched it for a while. Decreased from 480 to 430 a week.

Today secured for 380.

I guess the investor just wanted to stop the blood flow from 0 income.

ABS has clearly got some issues on numerous fronts.
Edited by Perthite, 22 Oct 2014, 07:30 PM.
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Shadow
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Perthite
22 Oct 2014, 07:28 PM
Shadow... when is the last time you heard a Perth investor on here claims rents where rising?

A friend just secured a 2 by 1 stand alone house in Vic Park WA. Watched it for a while. Decreased from 480 to 430 a week.

Today secured for 380.

I guess the investor just wanted to stop the blood flow from 0 income.

ABS has clearly got some issues on numerous fronts.
The ABS index shows actual rents paid over the year ending September 2014. So it includes people who started renting in late 2013. Those people were paying higher rents and are still paying higher rents because they have a one year lease and have not yet been impacted by any fall in asking rents that occurred after they signed their lease.

People like your friend, who experienced a decline in their rent today, would not be captured in the latest ABS CPI data. However they will be captured in future releases. As I explained above, the fall in asking rents that is occurring now in Perth is a leading indicator that won't flow through to actual rents paid until later CPI releases. Future CPI rent releases from the ABS are likely to show declines (you can see the red line appears to be rolling over).

Similarly, when asking rents rise, it will take up to a year for that to be fully reflected in the CPI data, because most tenants are on a one year lease.

SQM etc = asking rents = what is experienced by people signing new leases (a minority of tenants at any point in time).

ABS = actual rents = what people who already have leases are actually paying (the majority of tenants at any point in time).

It's really not that complicated.

Why would you expect them to move in lockstep? Your position is illogical.
Edited by Shadow, 22 Oct 2014, 07:47 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
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In that case falls on ABS should be recorded soon.

I would be worried if it didn't as it wouldn't stand up to what is happening in Perth.
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