Edit: Looks like the investor bull rush started in the early 2000s and took another good leap as part of the recent construction boom. Just as I was saying.
So by always Mike, you mean the last 15 years?
You mean investor activity picked up after the recession we had to have and financial deregulation, who would have thought. You are trying to compare two different time periods with different laws and regulations. Did we have dial up internet in the early 1990s or even the internet at all.
Why not compare now to 1900, how relevant would it be.
It does not look much of a bull rush to me other then a few temporary spikes, now is certainly not one of them. If you want to talk about Sydney, yes you can see a huge uptick in investor activity.
Wake me up when Perth even approaches Sydney's level of investor activity, going to be along sleep.
Veritas
22 Oct 2014, 06:29 PM
Mike,
You should go out and buy as many houses as possible.
In fact, everyone should.
For our elites will do everything in their power to shore up your investment and make sure you get rich.
Why isn't everyone just getting out there and buying as many houses as they can?
Borrow as much as you can and lever up! You cannot lose.
Why are you talking about everyone buying as many properties as possible?
I am talking about a construction boom led by Owner-Occupiers, why would you build more then one property if you are a owner-occupier.
You mean investor activity picked up after the recession we had to have and financial deregulation, who would have thought. You are trying to compare two different time periods with different laws and regulations. Did we have dial up internet in the early 1990s or even the internet at all.
Why not compare now to 1900, how relevant would it be.
It does not look much of a bull rush to me other then a few temporary spikes, now is certainly not one of them. If you want to talk about Sydney, yes you can see a huge uptick in investor activity.
Wake me up when Perth even approaches Sydney's level of investor activity, going to be along sleep.
Why are you talking about everyone buying as many properties as possible?
I am talking about a construction boom led by Owner-Occupiers, why would you build more then one property if you are a owner-occupier.
Quote:
You mean investor activity picked up after the recession we had to have and financial deregulation, who would have thought. You are trying to compare two different time periods with different laws and regulations. Did we have dial up internet in the early 1990s or even the internet at all.
The world has changed. Old standards do not apply. This is the new normal.
Quote:
Why not compare now to 1900, how relevant would it be.
Extremely relevant. Which was exactly Galbraith's point in _The Great Crash of 1929_ and _A Short History of Financial Euphoria_. In a Short History, he went back to the tulip craze of the 17th century in Holland. Then, a speculative bubble in 18th century London over the South Sea Company that ultimately failed and caused a serious recession throughout all England. A speculative bubble over US Continental Notes in the 19th century, printed in earnest yet backed by a shortage of goods. It all came to an end when a single bank called a few notes - requesting actual goods... payment. Repeated again with Civil War Greenbacks. And the overleveraged stock market of the 1920s, leading to a worldwide depression.
Stock Market crash of 1987 anyone?
How about the Nasdaq tech crash of 2000?
The global financial crisis of 2007, caused by a housing bubble?
But of course, the situation is different this time.
It always is. For the bug, there's never a car windshield coming until it already has. Then the bug is splat. And it's too late.
Because consumer and business confidence is plumbing the depths in WA right now.
Hence the motivation to post so often by the Perth bulls.
Reactions to record low rates are having an impact on consumers... it was always going to happen.
They have chosen to build at a time where we already have an oversupplied rental market.... Experts have written off the rental market for years.
The Federal Government has played its card of low rates to combat the slowdown of the mining investment boom... Just ask yourself... Whats next?
Wrong. Investors are not the ones doing the bulk of the building. It is owner-occupiers and FHB who make up 70-75% of the market.
If consumer confidence is so low why are consumers purchasing land and building so many new properties. If so many mining jobs have been lost and people are so concerned with the mining investment boom, why have land prices sky rocketed during the same time period. Why is construction at 25 year highs, why have land prices boomed up 25% in one year.
You are very good at posting negative data Perthite and drawing the most basic of assumptions between negative dots about the broader economy. Where you fail is to also examine the positive data which is the majority of data and apply an impact factor on a proportional basis.
This is where you go completely wrong time and again along with many other bears, I know it is in the pursuit of cheaper prices for housing for yourself, I cant fault you for trying or wanting that. I can though when you constantly distort reality with negative spin.
What you fail to see is the negative data you talk about, for example Job losses in the mining sector.
Lets say 5,000 Jobs are lost tomorrow out of a work force of almost 1.3 million. This is about 0.38% of the workforce, a rather large amount.
As we are talking about mining, some of these jobs will be by locals in the town or live in nearby towns, others will be FIFO from Perth or other towns further south, some will also be from interstate FIFO. So these 5,000 job losses are now spread over a broad area cover a number of cities and many towns around the nation to different degrees. Some of these 5,000 people will find better jobs with higher pay, others will accept less pay in new locations, perhaps closer to home. Jobs taken closer to home will boost the local economy of the worker instead of a regional town. Some may not find work and join the unemployment ques. So far we have seen no large uptick in unemployment which suggest most workers find new work which is to be expected in an economy growing at close to or above trend.
So we have a very spread out impact from the loss of a large number of jobs 5,000. The area where these people are employed locally will feel the impact much harder like some regional towns are presently. Still this represents only 0.38% of the work force. It only requires a fraction of the existing work force to earn slightly more, work more hours or also find improved jobs themselves, promotions, pay increases and such. The other 1,295,000 workers only the tinniest of improvements to counter the complete loss of 5,000 Jobs, if all of those 5,000 remained unemployed. As most will find new work either improved pay or reduced pay. The impact is diminished across a huge population and geographical area.
I will agree continued Job losses over a long period does and will have an impact. However the benefit of these construction projects finishing is they are staggered over a number of years and a year is along time. This gives State and National economies time to adjust and workers to find new employment, where ever that may be.
This is part of the reason why despite constant job losses in the mining sector for almost 2 years now WA is still close to full employment at 5%.
If you're negativity is correct we would have seen much more substantial negative data by now, but it is just not happening. Even with China slowing, Europe still struggling the Australian economy grinds on at trend growth rates.
This is only one tiny example of why you get it wrong and continue to do so, I could list dozens and talk for tens of thousands of words on the topic but I wont. It is obvious to me why you get it wrong.
Nice one, got you. I knew you could not answer it as there is no reply as you have simply been wrong consistently.
Anyway moving on to your links about Reiwa, thankyou for point out the Median house price has increased from $515,000 September 2013 to be up $20,000 to $535,000 this September. I appreciate you doing the work of the Bulls for us.
Keep posting this link Perthite as it also shows over the same period Median house prices increased by $20,000 year on year land prices have increased by $60,000 year on year. Well done, you will make a good Bull one day.
As for the rents increases over the past year take it up with the ABS and Residex they show prices increase of 2.9% and 4.6% over the past year. Other indices do show declines as you state, I am simply providing all the data and the other side of the coin.
You do seem to be in a panic as to why the ABS shows no falls in rent in Perth. As I have been saying for some time now, the rental falls are very limited to the high end and inner city locations. Rental falls have been recorded in other areas as well but far from the doom and gloom you preach. In all of my rentals I have kept rents unchanged with no problems releasing, I have not seen a single $1 in lost rent yet.
The real answer is to absorb all the data and make an informed decision, clearly the market and economy is no where near as bad as what you try to preach.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy