Ask yourself when Iron Ore peaked at close to some $200 a ton, why the did Perth Property Prices fall during that same year or soon after in 2011. If House prices are so linked why did house prices not shoot to the moon based on such massive incomes fuelling price growth. It did not happen as there is no strong link between Iron Ore prices and House prices.
Ever heard of lag and future expectations being built into price !
Mike
22 Oct 2014, 12:15 PM
If you had read my previous comments you would know I talk about price declines, stagnation and price growth.
bulshit you ridiclue the man on the streettalk and are captain hindsight, this is fucking shill back peddle talk!!
So, in summary, supply is increasing (at a rate not seen in 25 years) just as:
And this is bad news for bears how exactly?
Quote:
-the mining boom is ending. Been ending for a few years now, yet prices continue to rise, why? - wage growth is slowing Prices continue to rise, why? -migration into the state is falling Falling from a massive growth of over 3% per year, we are now 2.5% which is still a booming population growth. -stock of existing properties in the market is increasing Has increased from a very tight supply of properties over recent years. -rents are falling After years of a large rental increases which made buying a home cheaper then renting. -the rental vacancy rate is rising strongly Has fallen over recent months along with stock on market.Once again has increased from a very small base.
A simple graph does not from an economics book 101 does not explain the complexities involved.
Quote:
Ever heard of lag and future expectations being built into price !
Then why did prices rise in 2012, 2013, 2014 despite Irone Ore falling and the mining boom winding down over those years and continues to do so. If Iron Price affects us so badly, why after nearly 4 years since the price peaked have we not seen a stunning collapse and a Perth ending event, why?
Quote:
bulshit you ridiclue the man on the streettalk and are captain hindsight, this is fucking shill back peddle talk!!
You contribute so much to this forum, your insight and knowledge is without question.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
If you had read my posts of the last few years you would know my prediction was for Growth to slow or stop during 2015 then followed by years of stagnation, low growth and possible declines. I have stated this many times, clearly you are just shooting from the hip with little knowledge to support your claims.
bullshit captain wanksight!!
U ridiculed bears when we pointed out in ABC kindergarten type manner (for the slow bulls like your self) that the mining slow down was going to tear into WA budgets and gut Perth etc..
Heres some links spelling it out and plenty of comments attacked it espec by bull wankeers like Timmy,skamy & yourself.
U ridiculed bears when we pointed out in ABC kindergarten type manner (for the slow bulls like your self) that the mining slow down was going to tear into WA budgets and gut Perth etc..
Heres some links spelling it out and plenty of comments attacked it espec by bull wankeers like Timmy,skamy & yourself.
Please quote me where I ever said that Lower Iron Ore prices would not affect Government Revenue.
Now also explain to us how a lower Iron Ore price over the past 4 years effects the Perth Property Market and the overall economy here in Perth.
List examples with links to actual data to substantiate your claims. In 4 years there must be some evidence, surely unless the lag period is a decade now?
Please quote me where I ever said that Lower Iron Ore prices would not affect Government Revenue.
Now also explain to us how a lower Iron Ore price over the past 4 years effects the Perth Property Market and the overall economy here in Perth.
List examples with links to actual data to substantiate your claims. In 4 years there must be some evidence, surely unless the lag period is a decade now?
Ever heard of low interest rates coinciding with the biggest mining boom in history .
Just looking at the FTB data. Number down again. I wonder why.
Look at all that red. And so much more stock just about to hit the market.
Why are you so concerned with Rents, as I said in the opening OP it is not investors driving the price growth.
It is owner occupiers, upgraders.
What supply is about to hit the market, please show me where the increase in investment lending or other data to show investment is driving the demand as I cannot find it.
Of course rents will fall from record highs, as I said rentals became so expensive it is now cheaper to buy then rent. A lesson you have not learned yet.
doubleview
22 Oct 2014, 12:50 PM
Ever heard of low interest rates coinciding with the biggest mining boom in history .
Seriuos;y how dumb are u?
Wow with such knowledge you will be master of the universe surely, you sure other factors might not play a role.
The question is how you could be this dumb for this long and not learn from you're mistakes.
So, in summary, supply is increasing (at a rate not seen in 25 years) just as:
-the mining boom is ending. - wage growth is slowing -migration into the state is falling -stock of existing properties in the market is increasing -rents are falling -the rental vacancy rate is rising strongly
And this is bad news for bears how exactly?
Veritas
Building houses does not decrease house prices. This is getting really desperate.
Developers build houses when they can make money doing that, usually building increases when prices are increasing. Builders are hesitant to invest in construction if they think prices will drop.
You think that houses are like baking cakes for the school fair, if you bake too many the price will fall.
House take time to build, and require a significant investment of money. In Australia and Perth speculative building of houses is uncommon, most people buy land and build their own home on it. This is completely different to the US and Ireland and the UK where developers build estates of homes and then sell them.
Your list of woes are mostly nonsense Veritas. They are all like the rich man crying tears over dropping a few pennies down the drain.
A) The mining boom is not ending, there are heaps of new projects and exports are at record volumes, big companies with headquarters in Perth are making a motza.
B) Wages are growing, stop whining, that is good news - so what if they don't keep growing exponentially. Thank your blessings that wages are not falling.
C) Migration is still high, it was entirely expected that a lot of people had to come in to build new mines etc for us and that they would later go home and WA would get back to normal. Surely you did not think that migration growth for a construction boom would stay forever.
D) Perth still gets great rental returns much better than some other states and even with the small drops the growth over 5 years is exceptional. This will all have been a great boon to investors and low interest rates too. Do you seriously believe they will be dying of shock as the boon eases off?
E) Watch out for this one as you may be jumping the gun, rental vacancies and listings have been falling.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Mikes not spruiking, he's just stating how it is. If you think he's cocky then it's obvious some of you haven't met serious investors.
What I don't agree is that rental rates will not be going up too soon, the people vote with their feet & they are able to be choosy with the rentals ATM.
But these things will not last indefinitely.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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