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The Ebola Thread: Ebola is an economic black swan - outbreak is out of control.; What if Ebola hits Australian shores? Race to notify 131 passengers on flight that carried second infected nurse
Topic Started: 11 Aug 2014, 01:48 PM (5,785 Views)
zaph
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If this is correct and Ebola is not spread by airborne transmission then any cases in the west are likely to be very low.
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John Frum
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8 Oct 2014, 08:23 PM

Will it hit Australia ?

If it does, what will you do ?

Buy when there's blood on the streets. :ni:
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zaph
9 Oct 2014, 06:22 AM
If this is correct and Ebola is not spread by airborne transmission then any cases in the west are likely to be very low.
It says its tranmittied via bodilly fluids.

So that could mean somebody coughing or sneezing on a train or bus. An infected person coughing on their hand and then holding thr rail.
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John Frum
9 Oct 2014, 06:52 AM

Buy when there's blood on the streets. :ni:
If you live to see settlement that is.

Maybe invest in a hazmat suit or acerage somewhere .
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newjez
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9 Oct 2014, 06:54 AM
It says its tranmittied via bodilly fluids.

So that could mean somebody coughing or sneezing on a train or bus. An infected person coughing on their hand and then holding thr rail.
Or plane.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Sydneyite
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9 Oct 2014, 06:54 AM
zaph
9 Oct 2014, 06:22 AM
If this is correct and Ebola is not spread by airborne transmission then any cases in the west are likely to be very low.
It says its tranmittied via bodilly fluids.

So that could mean somebody coughing or sneezing on a train or bus. An infected person coughing on their hand and then holding thr rail.
My understanding is it is not infectious via these means (like a cold or flu virus is). If it was, it would have already killed hundereds of thousands / millions in Africa. Remember the movie "Outbreak"? That was about "airborn" transmittable ebola - airborn transmission means it can be transmitted via coughs / sneezes etc - that's a BIG problem for something with no cure and the mortality rate of ebola.

To be infected you must come in *direct* contact with infected bodily fluids, via a viable infection path, which usually involves your own bodily fluids mixing with the infected persons somehow. In central Africa, most of the population do not even follow basic hygene practices when dealing with infected people (wash hands with soap and warm water always after any potential exposure, avoid intimate contact etc) - plus they do not have the hospital or general health infrastructure to deal with the infected people properly - so they are often just sent home. Hence why it spreads there. In the west we are much more conscious of such things, and have much better health systems in place to deal with things when/if they do occur.

So personally, I am not concerned about ebola becoming a huge problem in Australia or in any western country at this stage. Just another thing for people to worry about for now.
Edited by Sydneyite, 9 Oct 2014, 09:51 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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zaph
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9 Oct 2014, 06:54 AM
zaph
9 Oct 2014, 06:22 AM
If this is correct and Ebola is not spread by airborne transmission then any cases in the west are likely to be very low.
It says its tranmittied via bodilly fluids.

An infected person coughing on their hand and then holding thr rail.
Quote:
 
So that could mean somebody coughing or sneezing on a train or bus.


"Airborne transmission has not been documented during EVD outbreaks." So if true that rules out coughing and sneezing (My Webpage). The current evidence, while far from strong, suggests that EVD is not likely transmitted by aerosol (ie coughing and sneezing).

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An infected person coughing on their hand and then holding thr rail.


The current evidence would suggest that if an infected person did a big snot cough and held the rail and the next person handled that and rubbed it against a mucous membrane (eyes, nose, wound, anus, vagina, mouth, penis) then EVD would be transmitted. Not likely - how often do you put your hand on snot on a rail, and rub it against the above?

On the currently available evidence there is little reason for the west to be concerned by Ebola:
1. Nearly two thirds of the cases of Ebola in Guinea during the 2014 outbreak are believed to be due to burial practices. - The west has much more hygienic burial practices and we can easily change our burial practices if necessary.
2. One of the primary reasons for spread is that the health systems in the part of Africa where the disease occurs function poorly. Medical workers who do not wear appropriate protective clothing may contract the disease - The west has high functioning health systems, and universal precautions, where the risk of nosocomial infection is extremely low.
3. Hospital-acquired transmission has occurred in African countries due to the reuse of needles and lack of universal precautions - the west never reuses sharps and practices universal precautions.
4. Some healthcare centers caring for people with the disease do not have running water - Western health care centres generally have running water.

Unlike western Africa, Australia has the ability to run broad based campaigns to notify it's population what to do in the unlikely event of an outbreak. It's highly unlikely that a household in oz would want to kill someone knocking at the door to notify them of the risks of EBV (unlike Western Africa).

This is not the new 'Spanish flew'. The transmission vectors are totally different and we now know how to wash our hands.

IMO the CDC hasn't bothered much with this because in 'racial adjusted' terms the disease is irrelevant. Sad, but true.





Sydneyite
9 Oct 2014, 08:55 AM
That was about "airborn" transmittable ebola - airborn transmission means it can be transmitted via coughs / sneezes etc - that's a BIG problem for something with no cure and the mortality rate of ebola.

To be infected you must come in *direct* contact with infected bodily fluids, via a viable infection path, which usually involves your own bodily fluids mixing with the infected persons somehow. In central Africa, most of the population do not even follow basic hygene practices when dealing with infected people (wash hands with soap and warm water always after any potential exposure, avoid intimate contact etc) - plus they do not have the hospital or general health infrastructure to deal with the infected people properly - so they are often just sent home. Hence why it spreads there. In the west we are much more conscious of such things, and have much better health systems in place to deal with things when/if they do occur.

So personally, I am not concerned about ebola becoming a huge problem in Australia or in any western country at this stage. Just another thing for people to worry about for now.
Quote:
 
My understanding is it is not infectious via these means (like a cold or flu virus is). If it was, it would have already killed hundereds of thousands / millions in Africa. Remember the movie "Outbreak"?


Correct. MSF cares about a few thousand 'blacks' (as they should!) dyeing, but the CDC and other authorities couldn't give a phuck about a few blacks dyeing. That's sad!

The CDC have been studying EBV long enough to know how it is transmitted and what it does. CDC has been studying Ebola for nearly 40 years.

If the CDC had given a phuck they would have encouraged drug companies to research treatments/vaccines. But it's simply not financially viable. It's not a bigger enough problem.



Edited by zaph, 9 Oct 2014, 10:06 AM.
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Jetstar flight returns to Sydney after passenger vomits blood

October 9, 2014 - 9:41AM
Melanie Kembrey

A Jetstar flight from Sydney to Darwin was forced to turn around mid-air when a passenger started vomiting blood on Wednesday night.

While airport officials may be on high alert after the spread of Ebola to the US and Europe, paramedics said the 54-year-old man had a pre-existing liver condition and is now in a stable condition in hospital.

The man was travelling on JQ 672 when he fell ill and started vomiting about an hour into the flight.

A Jetstar spokesman said the decision to return to Sydney Airport was a "precautionary measure and pretty standard procedure".

"We were given advice that in the interest of their well-being that we should turn back so they could get medical treatment," the spokesman said.

Paramedics were called to the airport at 10.49pm and transferred the man to Royal Prince Alfred Hospital.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/jetstar-flight-returns-to-sydney-after-passenger-vomits-blood-20141009-113f7k.html
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Black Panther
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I am going to work from home indefinitely if it hits.

"We Can't Exclude The Possibility That Ebola Can Spread Through The Air," Expert Warns

"At this point there is zero risk of transmission on flights," said CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden, supporting other public health officials who have voiced similar assurances, saying Ebola is spread only through physical contact with a symptomatic individual or their bodily fluids. However, as The LA Times reports, some scientists who have long studied Ebola say such assurances are premature - and they are concerned about what is not known about the strain now on the loose. Dr. C.J. Peters, who battled a 1989 outbreak of the virus, and who later led the CDC's most far-reaching study of Ebola's transmissibility in humans, said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters..."We just don't have the data to exclude it."



As The LA Times reports, officials continue to stress how hard it is to get infected by Ebola...

"Ebola is not transmitted by the air. It is not an airborne infection," said Dr. Edward Goodman of Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas, where the Liberian patient remains in critical condition.



...Public health officials have voiced similar assurances, saying Ebola is spread only through physical contact with a symptomatic individual or their bodily fluids.

Yet some scientists who have long studied Ebola say such assurances are premature - and they are concerned about what is not known about the strain now on the loose. It is an Ebola outbreak like none seen before, jumping from the bush to urban areas, giving the virus more opportunities to evolve as it passes through multiple human hosts.

Dr. C.J. Peters, who battled a 1989 outbreak of the virus among research monkeys housed in Virginia and who later led the CDC's most far-reaching study of Ebola's transmissibility in humans, said he would not rule out the possibility that it spreads through the air in tight quarters.



"We just don't have the data to exclude it," said Peters, who continues to research viral diseases at the University of Texas in Galveston.



Dr. Philip K. Russell, a virologist who oversaw Ebola research while heading the U.S. Army's Medical Research and Development Command, and who later led the government's massive stockpiling of smallpox vaccine after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, also said much was still to be learned. "Being dogmatic is, I think, ill-advised, because there are too many unknowns here."



If Ebola were to mutate on its path from human to human, said Russell and other scientists, its virulence might wane — or it might spread in ways not observed during past outbreaks, which were stopped after transmission among just two to three people, before the virus had a greater chance to evolve. The present outbreak in West Africa has killed approximately 3,400 people, and there is no medical cure for Ebola.



"I see the reasons to dampen down public fears," Russell said. "But scientifically, we're in the middle of the first experiment of multiple, serial passages of Ebola virus in man.... God knows what this virus is going to look like. I don't."

Additionally, Charles L. Bailey supervised the government's response to an outbreak of Ebola among several dozen rhesus monkeys housed for research in Reston, Va., a suburb of Washington.

What Bailey learned from the episode informs his suspicion that the current strain of Ebola afflicting humans might be spread through tiny liquid droplets propelled into the air by coughing or sneezing.



"We know for a fact that the virus occurs in sputum and no one has ever done a study [disproving that] coughing or sneezing is a viable means of transmitting," he said. Unqualified assurances that Ebola is not spread through the air, Bailey said, are "misleading."



Peters, whose CDC team studied cases from 27 households that emerged during a 1995 Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo, said that while most could be attributed to contact with infected late-stage patients or their bodily fluids, "some" infections may have occurred via "aerosol transmission."



...



Though he acknowledged that the means of disease transmission among the animals would not guarantee the same result among humans, Bailey said the outcome may hold lessons for the present Ebola epidemic.



"Those monkeys were dying in a pattern that was certainly suggestive of coughing and sneezing — some sort of aerosol movement," Bailey said. "They were dying and spreading it so quickly from cage to cage. We finally came to the conclusion that the best action was to euthanize them all."


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-08/we-cant-exclude-possibility-ebola-can-spread-through-air-expert-warns
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Sydneyite
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BP - Zerohedge? Really??? :re: They are the ultimate panic / doom and gloom merchants! Like I said - Ebola is just something else for worrry-warts to worry themselves about..... :dry:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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