Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 8
  • 21
Perth sales surge; No of sales up 17% on the month and 7% y/y
Topic Started: 16 Oct 2014, 10:42 AM (13,345 Views)
newjez
Member Avatar


Mike
19 Oct 2014, 03:57 PM
How about you explain why land prices have skyrocketed in the past 9 months.

http://reiwa.com.au/The-WA-Market/

That is at 15.74% increase in land prices in 9 months. This does not even factor in the increase demand for land and construction since July due to changes in the FHBG.

Why would land prices rise so much, when you are trying to tell everyone the market is falling when no data indice supports your claim.

If mining is such a drag on the economy and the price of Iron Ore why is this happening, do you actually understand the market, if so why do you get it so wrong?




March quarter 2013 - 6,838 Price increase 2.0%

June quarter 2013 - 6,646 Price increase 2.9%

September quarter 2013 - 6,355 Price increase 0.1%

December quarter 2013 - 6,292 Price increase 2.9%

March quarter 2014 - 6,395 Price increase 0.8%

June quarter 2014 - 5,862 Price increase -0.2%

Steward Darby needs to do his homework better, there has not been a decrease in every quarter since March 2013, sales increased from the March quarter 2014 from December quarter 2013.

https://www.landgate.wa.gov.au/docvault.nsf/web/PS_FPS/$FILE/WAMetro.pdf

What you also need to look at is sales volumes over the past 5 years in the June quarter to get a real comparison on activity.

June quarter 2010 - 4,929

June quarter 2011 - 4,304

June quarter 2012 - 5,418

June quarter 2013 - 6,646

June quarter 2014 - 5,862

So as you can see this years June quarter is the 2nd highest in the past 5 years in terms of sales volume. So while the quarter was not as strong as last year, it was certainly much strong then most pervious quarters for the same time period.

The other factor which affect the price growth in the June quarter was a surge in sales to FHB in the first half of the year.

This is also why land prices are rising quickly as I stated months ago, upgraders have moved into the market and are buying up expensive blocks. So although lower sales volumes higher quality homes and land is being sold at present. This is what will drive prices over the next months as this trend is continuing as we speak and FHB numbers have dropped away a little. As FHB numbers decrease upgraders are increasing which results in higher sales of more expensive property. This is why you will see price growth over the coming 6 months, which is already being reflected in multiple data indices showing a bounce of 2% in property prices in the last 8 weeks.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/second+level+view?ReadForm&prodno=6416.0&viewtitle=House%20Price%20Indexes:%20Eight%20Capital%20Cities~Sep%202013~Previous~04/11/2013&&tabname=Past%20Future%20Issues&prodno=6416.0&issue=Sep%202013&num=&view=&







I know, sorry don't have time to be to specific.

Noticeable pick up in activity since early September, even in the rental market. Rentals are leasing at 40% higher volumes now then in the same time period in 2013. Been like that for awhile now.

902 rented this compared to 618 for the same week last year. Anyone can go back and look at data over the previous few months and will find similar results in nearly every week. That's a lot of rentals being leased each week, which runs counter to the bears comments that investors are struggling. I don't see it.

http://reiwa.com.au/home/
Noticeable pickup since the last time you fucked up and got it completely wrong. Your mistakes are becoming tedious Mike. Time to go back to class.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


So we better do away with the 20 year average when comparing sales and just look at the last 5?

what the...

Mike... FHB numbers have dropped a little? Talk about an understatement.

36% and that plays havoc with medians.

http://reiwa.com.au/About-Us/News/Latest-data-suggests-first-home-buyer-market-has-turned/

Basically I would expect the Landgate medians to leap just on that fact.


Edited by Perthite, 19 Oct 2014, 07:54 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


ozz
19 Oct 2014, 06:32 PM
Don't move this back to a historical argument BP, and prices haven't moved that much in the last seven years. If you want to argue when people should have bought, start with 2000. 2007 (i.e. 7 years later, and your start figure) is when the market peaked.

I don't know Perthite, but as I see, he acknowledges prices may go up (if I'm wrong Perthite tell me), Mike, and you to add, can't comprehend that they can and may down. They may not move for the next decade, can you at least confirm that. This will be the litmus test of both of your fanaticism.

Do you BP, and Mike if you are reading this, confirm that prices may not move for the next decade. If you cannot, this shows my point. I am not in the bull or bear camp, and if I move back to Perth will likely buy something to reside my family in.

I'm signing a contract tomorrow to buy a rental unit (not in WA), and main reason is great rent, gov't guaranteed for 10 years. I am not expecting much capital gains in the next decade, but if it goes up 20% in 2024 that would be awesome. The old days of property doubling every 7-10 years may have worked in the past (although this was officially and utterly killed after stupid capital growth up to 2007 in Perth especially).

Buy a home to live in, and grow equity by paying it off. This is how Joe Public worked until the late 90's, then they were introduced to investments property and property lending to the masses, and now we bear the fruit of what they have done.

GLTA.
You clearly don't ready many of my posts. I have often talked out market declines, most recently in 2011. I have mentioned countless times that I will be bearish in the future and have been in the past, that is when I do most of my buying.

Yes the rental market has eased but from a very low tight base. It was only 18 months ago we have people complaining about paying $350 a week for a caravan due to no rentals at affordable levels. Having more rentals in the market is good for the long term health of the market.

The difference is bears always see the sky is falling, I don't. I have stated many times and long held predictions I see growth until middle 2015 then a flat market for a few years and yes it may decline.

Why is it some bears always claim bulls state the market only ever rises, yet I have never seen one Bull ever say this.
newjez
19 Oct 2014, 07:13 PM
Noticeable pickup since the last time you fucked up and got it completely wrong. Your mistakes are becoming tedious Mike. Time to go back to class.
Please I'm still waiting for the collapse you called in 2011 and 2012. Yet hear we are. Still waiting. Not a relative of Steve keen are you?


Perthite
19 Oct 2014, 07:39 PM
So we better do away with the 20 year average when comparing sales and just look at the last 5?

what the...

Mike... FHB numbers have dropped a little? Talk about an understatement.

36% and that plays havoc with medians.

http://reiwa.com.au/About-Us/News/Latest-data-suggests-first-home-buyer-market-has-turned/

Basically I would expect the Landgate medians to leap just on that fact.


RP data and other indices account for this in stratification. Land gate does not. Nice try though.
Edited by Mike, 19 Oct 2014, 08:36 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
doubleview
Member Avatar


Mike
19 Oct 2014, 08:32 PM
You clearly don't ready many of my posts. I have often talked out market declines, most recently in 2011. I have mentioned countless times that I will be bearish in the future and have been in the past, that is when I do most of my buying.

Yes the rental market has eased but from a very low tight base. It was only 18 months ago we have people complaining about paying $350 a week for a caravan due to no rentals at affordable levels. Having more rentals in the market is good for the long term health of the market.

The difference is bears always see the sky is falling, I don't. I have stated many times and long held predictions I see growth until middle 2015 then a flat market for a few years and yes it may decline.

Why is it some bears always claim bulls state the market only ever rises, yet I have never seen one Bull ever say this.
Go suck a dick mike!

The fundamnetals in Perth changed 12 months a go and are only being held together @ present by the sticky nature of property!

Your over levered young dumb and full of cum........that is all any one needs to know about u!
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Then watch as it happens.... :oo:
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Black Panther
Default APF Avatar


doubleview
19 Oct 2014, 08:36 PM
Go suck a dick mike!

The fundamnetals in Perth changed 12 months a go and are only being held together @ present by the sticky nature of property!

Your over levered young dumb and full of cum........that is all any one needs to know about u!
Posted Image

:lol
Black Panther
19 Oct 2014, 09:16 PM
Posted Image

:lol
Bears lose it. Another Decisive Mike the Bull Victory !!!

Edited by Black Panther, 19 Oct 2014, 09:17 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Black Panther
19 Oct 2014, 09:16 PM
Bears lose it. Another Decisive Mike the Bull Victory !!!
As mikes sockpuppet you would say that wouldn't you.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Black Panther
Default APF Avatar


Perth has done what I expected , see attached graph, gone up with a few dips. Bear madness see's this as a crash ...


ozz
19 Oct 2014, 06:32 PM
Don't move this back to a historical argument BP, and prices haven't moved that much in the last seven years. If you want to argue when people should have bought, start with 2000. 2007 (i.e. 7 years later, and your start figure) is when the market peaked.

I don't know Perthite, but as I see, he acknowledges prices may go up (if I'm wrong Perthite tell me), Mike, and you to add, can't comprehend that they can and may down. They may not move for the next decade, can you at least confirm that. This will be the litmus test of both of your fanaticism.

Do you BP, and Mike if you are reading this, confirm that prices may not move for the next decade. If you cannot, this shows my point. I am not in the bull or bear camp, and if I move back to Perth will likely buy something to reside my family in.

I'm signing a contract tomorrow to buy a rental unit (not in WA), and main reason is great rent, gov't guaranteed for 10 years. I am not expecting much capital gains in the next decade, but if it goes up 20% in 2024 that would be awesome. The old days of property doubling every 7-10 years may have worked in the past (although this was officially and utterly killed after stupid capital growth up to 2007 in Perth especially).

Buy a home to live in, and grow equity by paying it off. This is how Joe Public worked until the late 90's, then they were introduced to investments property and property lending to the masses, and now we bear the fruit of what they have done.

GLTA.
Another Bear capitulation.
Attached to this post:
Attachments: Untitled.jpg (101.5 KB)
Edited by Black Panther, 19 Oct 2014, 09:29 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Really... was it not all about the rents?

:lol
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
doubleview
Member Avatar


Jimbo
19 Oct 2014, 09:24 PM
As mikes sockpuppet you would say that wouldn't you.
Interesting observation !

This is one I have to say I didnt pick, mmm !!
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
ZetaBoards gives you all the tools to create a successful discussion community.
Learn More · Register Now
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 8
  • 21



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy