Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 21
Perth sales surge; No of sales up 17% on the month and 7% y/y
Topic Started: 16 Oct 2014, 10:42 AM (13,347 Views)
Guest
Unregistered

What about the rent falls Mike ?

We are seeing some rather large drops in rental prices for both houses and units over the last twelve months.

You don't think this may pose a problem for our rather large investor market these days ?

Potential buyers may also decide to hold off and take advantage of the cheaper rental market.

"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mike
Default APF Avatar


Perthite
17 Oct 2014, 09:02 PM
40% is a bit of a drop. Explains the 18 months of consistently lackluster sales falling to below the 20 year average.
Wrong again. Sales last year were very strong, hence the strong price growth in 2013.

The falling sales was only a measure in over a few months over winter in which it was quiet.

Explain why prices are rising, despite your claims the sky is falling. Explain why land prices have shot up $40,000 in just a few months.



Guest
17 Oct 2014, 09:15 PM
What about the rent falls Mike ?

We are seeing some rather large drops in rental prices for both houses and units over the last twelve months.

You don't think this may pose a problem for our rather large investor market these days ?

Potential buyers may also decide to hold off and take advantage of the cheaper rental market.

Rents enjoyed over 2 years of very strong growth and a very tight market.

Rents increased so much it was cheaper to buy in many FHB suburbs, which is what happened, more people today have bought and built new homes which can only be good for these peoples long term finances in owning a home.

Do you really think rents that have fallen in the inner city suburbs have much affect on the overall market. Interest rates are at 4.75% variable rates, you can get fixed as low as 3.99%. Rents falling is not going to affect investors much in this low interest rate climate. If the RBA hiked rates up about 3% then it might get interesting.

Investors have made a killing in recent years with 20%PA rent increases with the lowest interest rates in 30 years. So the lowest costs in terms of rates yet the highest return on rents, throw in over 16% price growth in the last 2 years.

Take a look at how many rentals are renting per week, it is over 900 per week. Same time last year it was over 600 per week. Why have we seen an almost 50% increase in people renting each week then during the same time last year.

Looks like a perfectly healthy market to me.
Edited by Mike, 18 Oct 2014, 01:36 AM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


Mike
17 Oct 2014, 07:53 PM
No it is a drop in FHB activity after a strong 6 months from them and a return to upgraders buying, I did report this happening in early August/September only for Jimbo to say I was wrong and everythig was in freefall.
Here's an interesting set of numbers for you.

It is the total number of sales listings for the Greater Perth region on realestate.com.au

I snapshot it every Saturday morning. After being pretty stable for a few months, here is what has happened over the last three weeks.

4th October 12936

11th October 13634

18th October 14195

That's up by almost 10% in two weeks. I know you will come out and say that some of these places will have sold and agents haven't taken them off, but, swings and roundabouts aside, 10% in two weeks is still a pretty big climb.

http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements




Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


Jimbo
18 Oct 2014, 08:40 AM
Here's an interesting set of numbers for you.

It is the total number of sales listings for the Greater Perth region on realestate.com.au

I snapshot it every Saturday morning. After being pretty stable for a few months, here is what has happened over the last three weeks.

4th October 12936

11th October 13634

18th October 14195

That's up by almost 10% in two weeks. I know you will come out and say that some of these places will have sold and agents haven't taken them off, but, swings and roundabouts aside, 10% in two weeks is still a pretty big climb.

http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements



That's interesting. Could you post the last three months if you have the time and the figures please.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
ozz
Default APF Avatar


Mike
18 Oct 2014, 01:30 AM
Wrong again. Sales last year were very strong, hence the strong price growth in 2013.

The falling sales was only a measure in over a few months over winter in which it was quiet.

Explain why prices are rising, despite your claims the sky is falling. Explain why land prices have shot up $40,000 in just a few months.




Rents enjoyed over 2 years of very strong growth and a very tight market.

Rents increased so much it was cheaper to buy in many FHB suburbs, which is what happened, more people today have bought and built new homes which can only be good for these peoples long term finances in owning a home.

Do you really think rents that have fallen in the inner city suburbs have much affect on the overall market. Interest rates are at 4.75% variable rates, you can get fixed as low as 3.99%. Rents falling is not going to affect investors much in this low interest rate climate. If the RBA hiked rates up about 3% then it might get interesting.

Investors have made a killing in recent years with 20%PA rent increases with the lowest interest rates in 30 years. So the lowest costs in terms of rates yet the highest return on rents, throw in over 16% price growth in the last 2 years.

Take a look at how many rentals are renting per week, it is over 900 per week. Same time last year it was over 600 per week. Why have we seen an almost 50% increase in people renting each week then during the same time last year.

Looks like a perfectly healthy market to me.
Land in some data may have shown this spike Mike, but it is on a downward trend now. Looking at a prime location rear battleaxe now, dropped $50,000 in last 3 months. May have been a bit overpriced to start, but now back where prices where last year. I think it will drop back under $300K soon. Probably pick it up then (I do plan to move back to WA in next year or so - maybe - and this block is in a great location). RE is on a downward trend. This will be the lost decade for Perth RE, with prices probably unchanged from 2010 to 2020.

Don't take these jibes as negative, just the way the market is. RE doesn't always have to go up Mike. Greed killed the market back in 2000. Prices tripled in 7 years or so, and this took price rises out to 2025 or so in 1/3 of this time. I'm very confident of this. All about affordability, you can't get blood out of a stone.

I've just signed for a residential unit today, not WA however, with a 10 year lease in place. Not expecting much capital growth over this time, but strong rent and even on same price in 10 years, my debt would have gone down and P&I from day 1.

Don't feel the need to justify all the time Mike, let it go, you won't convince them, just as your can't lose RE mindset can't acknowledge there's.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


newjez
18 Oct 2014, 08:59 AM
That's interesting. Could you post the last three months if you have the time and the figures please.
In early July it was 11802 and rose slowly to 12305 by the end of September. Since then it has ramped up at quite a pace.

In my local area it has steadily been rising since early July but we are only talking from 268 to 300 properties so not enough to get a picture.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
doubleview
Member Avatar


ozz
18 Oct 2014, 09:05 AM
RE is on a downward trend. This will be the lost decade for Perth RE, with prices probably unchanged from 2010 to 2020.

Don't take these jibes as negative, just the way the market is. RE doesn't always have to go up Mike. Greed killed the market back in 2000. Prices tripled in 7 years or so, and this took price rises out to 2025 or so in 1/3 of this time. I'm very confident of this. All about affordability, you can't get blood out of a stone.

Pretty much on the money!

Regarding IP If you got out in the last 12 moths or so you are sweet.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Perthite
Member Avatar


Mike
18 Oct 2014, 01:30 AM
Wrong again. Sales last year were very strong, hence the strong price growth in 2013.

The falling sales was only a measure in over a few months over winter in which it was quiet.

Explain why prices are rising, despite your claims the sky is falling. Explain why land prices have shot up $40,000 in just a few months.




Rents enjoyed over 2 years of very strong growth and a very tight market.

Rents increased so much it was cheaper to buy in many FHB suburbs, which is what happened, more people today have bought and built new homes which can only be good for these peoples long term finances in owning a home.

Do you really think rents that have fallen in the inner city suburbs have much affect on the overall market. Interest rates are at 4.75% variable rates, you can get fixed as low as 3.99%. Rents falling is not going to affect investors much in this low interest rate climate. If the RBA hiked rates up about 3% then it might get interesting.

Investors have made a killing in recent years with 20%PA rent increases with the lowest interest rates in 30 years. So the lowest costs in terms of rates yet the highest return on rents, throw in over 16% price growth in the last 2 years.

Take a look at how many rentals are renting per week, it is over 900 per week. Same time last year it was over 600 per week. Why have we seen an almost 50% increase in people renting each week then during the same time last year.

Looks like a perfectly healthy market to me.
Wrong?

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-house-prices-set-to-fall-property-analysts-predict-20140930-10nvq1.html#ixzz3Eler7Zu1

REIWA executive manager of research, Stewart Darby, said while there might still be a spring pick-up, there had now been a drop in the number of sales in Perth in every quarter since March 2013.

Sloppy.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Guest
17 Oct 2014, 09:15 PM
What about the rent falls Mike ?

We are seeing some rather large drops in rental prices for both houses and units over the last twelve months.

You don't think this may pose a problem for our rather large investor market these days ?

Potential buyers may also decide to hold off and take advantage of the cheaper rental market.

Perth rents are high silly just because they fell a bit from the super high rates of the investment boom (an unexpected boon for most landlords) does not make take away the fact that there are still pretty good returns especially compared to other states eg Vic.

Posted Image

Anyway if you have been watching carefully listings are falling again, so we might all be surprised at what the future unfolds.
Jimbo
18 Oct 2014, 08:40 AM
Here's an interesting set of numbers for you.

It is the total number of sales listings for the Greater Perth region on realestate.com.au

I snapshot it every Saturday morning. After being pretty stable for a few months, here is what has happened over the last three weeks.

4th October 12936

11th October 13634

18th October 14195

That's up by almost 10% in two weeks. I know you will come out and say that some of these places will have sold and agents haven't taken them off, but, swings and roundabouts aside, 10% in two weeks is still a pretty big climb.

http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/property-villa-townhouse-unit-apartment-unit+apartment-house-in-perth+-+greater+region%2c+wa/list-1?includeSurrounding=false&misc=ex-under-contract&source=refinements



I am sorry Jimbo but that is just showing you the normal increase in activity in Spring.
Edited by skamy, 18 Oct 2014, 10:51 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jimbo
Member Avatar


skamy
18 Oct 2014, 10:49 AM
I am sorry Jimbo but that is just showing you the normal increase in activity in Spring.
10% in two weeks?
Edited by Jimbo, 18 Oct 2014, 10:55 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Join the millions that use us for their forum communities. Create your own forum today.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 21



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy