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Perth sales surge; No of sales up 17% on the month and 7% y/y
Topic Started: 16 Oct 2014, 10:42 AM (13,335 Views)
Foxy
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Zero is coming...

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/10/physicist-looks-pause/
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Kulganis
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Peter, can't you keep your rubbish to one thread at least?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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skamy
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USianInPerth
21 Oct 2014, 09:41 PM
That's an absurd argument. Current interest rate of a fixed 30yr mortgage at prime is about 3.5% last I checked. I own a two-fam in Boston with a 4.25% fixed at 30 years. Interest rates are rock bottom.

Unless you don't warrant prime. Then they're crazy high. And, as I pointed out in the previous post, minorities often are only approved for sub-prime rates. And not because of poor repayment history or income potential. Which - I suppose - does impact "affordability". In that it is unaffordable to buy a house at 3xIncome when the bank won't led to you at prime due to racism, or lend to you at all in a redlined 'whites only' neighborhood.

Go to Atlanta sometime. Drive through the deep south. I have. The racism is that blatant.

Now, regarding the question of affordability and capital gains potential here in Perth, I think the market is tapped out. In particular, I think Subi is in for a hell of a residential crash, given all the construction ongoing. Add the stadium shutdown in 2017 and continued unlet storefronts along Rokeby Rd, and it looks like a disaster in the making. With nice opportunities to buy within the next five to seven years. But my are those folks buying into units along Brigid Rd going to get soaked. $667K for a single unit? LOL.

Australia is in for one hell of a reckoning. Happened in America. It's going to happen here and in the UK too. Fundamentals are way out of whack.
I have been to Atlanta and I would never go back, racial tensions are palpable and there are vast tracts of housing which look like something out of a walking dead film. There is no way on earth anyone in their right mind would not prefer to live, work and buy a home in Australia.
These bears pick ridiculous cities to try to claim Australia has it wrong when all they do is reinforce the fact that Australia does so so much better by its people than the US does.

You are telling an old doom and gloom story. Subi is down markedly and has been for some years, retail has been suffering and many shops have closed. The market did not pop however it stagnated. There is no bubble in Perth and none in Australia so you will not see anything like the corrections in the US. In fact all the signs are that our housing market is recovering in all the States, people are buying, selling and building homes at a reasonable pace. The time for all the drama is well past, if a bubble was gonna pop it would have popped in 2008 nothing much dramatic can be expected after nearly a decade of stagnation followed by a slow recovery.
Don't plan your financial future on some greedy doomsters fantasy of even cheaper homes in Subi. There are bargains there today, will they be there tomorrow? that is your gamble.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
22 Oct 2014, 12:03 AM
I have been to Atlanta and I would never go back, racial tensions are palpable and there are vast tracts of housing which look like something out of a walking dead film. There is no way on earth anyone in their right mind would not prefer to live, work and buy a home in Australia.
These bears pick ridiculous cities to try to claim Australia has it wrong when all they do is reinforce the fact that Australia does so so much better by its people than the US does.

You are telling an old doom and gloom story. Subi is down markedly and has been for some years, retail has been suffering and many shops have closed. The market did not pop however it stagnated. There is no bubble in Perth and none in Australia so you will not see anything like the corrections in the US. In fact all the signs are that our housing market is recovering in all the States, people are buying, selling and building homes at a reasonable pace. The time for all the drama is well past, if a bubble was gonna pop it would have popped in 2008 nothing much dramatic can be expected after nearly a decade of stagnation followed by a slow recovery.
Don't plan your financial future on some greedy doomsters fantasy of even cheaper homes in Subi. There are bargains there today, will they be there tomorrow? that is your gamble.
Yeah thats all true if you are willing to ignore the fact that:

1. house prices are falling
2. Rents are falling
3. stock on the market is rising
4. We are on the verge of a supply overhang
5. Rental vacancy rate us up over 50% in a year.

Unless you were buying a place with a large deposit and it would suit your family situation come what may for a decade or more you would be crackers to buy in Perth right now. ( unless you got a really tasty discount from a sensible vendor)

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Mike
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Veritas
22 Oct 2014, 12:17 AM
Yeah thats all true if you are willing to ignore the fact that:

1. house prices are falling
2. Rents are falling
3. stock on the market is rising
4. We are on the verge of a supply overhang
5. Rental vacancy rate us up over 50% in a year.

Unless you were buying a place with a large deposit and it would suit your family situation come what may for a decade or more you would be crackers to buy in Perth right now. ( unless you got a really tasty discount from a sensible vendor)
Lets get some balance Veritas and some truth,facts.

1. House prices are rising. Up 2.3% in the past month https://www.scribd.com/doc/243636524/Weekend-Market-Summary-Week-Ending-2014-October-19

2. Rents have fallen in some locations and only by a small amount, this is after a number of years or large rent increases.

3. Stock on market is rising after an acute shortage of properties for sale and rent. Properties for rent have begun to decline in recent weeks.

4. Can you provide proof of a supply overhang or data to support this. WA and Australia to a large extend have underbuilt for along time.

5. Up from an almost record low in rental vacancies. Rental prices increased so much to be more expensive then to buy your own home in recent years, hence why more people have bought and built homes over the past 3 years.

Well I guess the people who are buying land now and building houses which is now at a 25 year high in Perth as crazy or perhaps they know something you don't. Yet even though construction is at a 25 year high it is still under the required building rate for the population to house it in WA. Getting close though.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/residential-building-starts-in-wa-at-record-highs-according-to-abs-data/story-fnhlgriw-1227091731413
Quote:
 

RESIDENTIAL building commencements in WA are at record highs according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today.


Quote:
 
But this upturn only restores residential building to a level achieved 25 years ago. In that

time Western Australia has seen strong population growth and the housing recovery needs

to be sustained in order to tackle the state’s housing shortfall


Show me the supply overhang Veritas, when we are only at the same level of construction as 25 years ago despite much faster population growth.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Veritas
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Mike
22 Oct 2014, 12:41 AM
Show me the supply overhang Veritas, when we are only at the same level of construction as 25 years ago despite much faster population growth.
Posted Image

Building like its 2006, but it aint.

Back then the boom was in full swing.

Now they are building into a bust.

All the while stock on the market increases.

Edit: Check the stats Mike. In the last two years there building approvals are at levels rarely seen ( perhaps twice) in the lat 30 years. Several months of approvals about 2000 per month. And that's on top of all the houses we already have.

Sure, its a response to a supply problem but if there is genuine demand why is it not being soaked up. Why is stock on the market rising? Why is rental vacancy rate rising so rapidly?
Edited by Veritas, 22 Oct 2014, 01:19 AM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Mike
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Veritas
22 Oct 2014, 12:58 AM
Posted Image

Building like its 2006, but it aint.

Back then the boom was in full swing.

Now they are building into a bust.

All the while stock on the market increases.
http://reiwa.com.au/The-WA-Market/Perth-Metro/

Land prices up 25% in one year, and you think we are not in a boom. Construction at 25 year highs, you think we are not in a boom.

Stick around Veritas it is going to get very ugly for you bears. Don't say I did not warn you.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Blondie girl
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Much ado about nothing ATM....
Generally.



@mike & Black Puddy....

Both of you will need to acknowledge that there isn't going to be any short term benefit in hiking up any rental rates on the Ips as yet...

I certainly will not be hiking it up ..yet.
Plateau times .
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Veritas
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Mike
22 Oct 2014, 01:19 AM
http://reiwa.com.au/The-WA-Market/Perth-Metro/

Land prices up 25% in one year, and you think we are not in a boom. Construction at 25 year highs, you think we are not in a boom.

Stick around Veritas it is going to get very ugly for you bears. Don't say I did not warn you.
HAHAHA. FOMO! Quick guys, buy now or miss out forever. Quit talking your book Mike.

I thought it was me who just said that WA construction is booming did I not?

Are you suggesting that this is the harbinger of higher prices because here was I thinking that extra supply puts downward pressure on prices not the opposite.Obviously, housing is different eh?

What I see is lots of investors who bought houses and apartments not realising that the days of big capital gains are long gone.

Then, there is the small matter of what is going on in the real economy Mike.

Posted Image

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Kulganis
21 Oct 2014, 11:42 PM
Peter, can't you keep your rubbish to one thread at least?
Just sitting with a wood fire burning and thought of the global warming religion, what will you do Kluganis when you finally understand you have been deceived??

Peter
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