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Perth sales surge; No of sales up 17% on the month and 7% y/y
Topic Started: 16 Oct 2014, 10:42 AM (13,340 Views)
Veritas
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Mike
20 Oct 2014, 12:25 AM
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/special-features/future-perth-blueprint-for-a-compact-capital/story-fnmx16d1-1227083773777




State Government aiming for 5 million people in Perth by 2050, some predictions say we will reach this by 2040.

16 times median income bears, keep waiting. Don't worry you can always rent from us investors or buy a development of me, if you can get a mortgage for 16 times median income that is.
:re:

What a ridiculous prediction. Made by who? based on what research?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Mike
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Veritas
20 Oct 2014, 01:06 AM
:re:

What a ridiculous prediction. Made by who? based on what research?
Read it and find out.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Veritas
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Mike
20 Oct 2014, 01:10 AM
Read it and find out.
Just did.

Basically some mob called the committee for Perth (who are they?) reckon if we dont do x y and z bad things will happen.

Apparently, they have some "research". 16 times media income? Will people be eating sand in WA as well as groping it in order to put a roof over their heads?

Beware of any publication that spruiks property that is bought and paid for by advertising revenue from those same spriukers.

Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Mike
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Veritas
20 Oct 2014, 01:15 AM
Just did.

Basically some mob called the committee for Perth (who are they?) reckon if we dont do x y and z bad things will happen.

Apparently, they have some "research". 16 times media income? Will people be eating sand in WA as well as groping it in order to put a roof over their heads?

Beware of any publication that spruiks property that is bought and paid for by advertising revenue from those same spriukers.
The Govt states it is going to limit urban sprawl, use a lot of infill, population density. What do you think that will do to long term prices.

Im sure they have far more knowledge and insight into Government policy then you do.

In 10 years from now, don't look back and say you did not know what was coming, here it is in black and white what the Government is planning to do.

Vested interest or not, what the Government normally wants, it gets one way or another.

If you do buy, get close to a train station, traffic will be a real bitch. I hate Sydney when I lived there for 12 years for that very reason.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Veritas
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Mike
20 Oct 2014, 01:38 AM
The Govt states it is going to limit urban sprawl, use a lot of infill, population density. What do you think that will do to long term prices.

Im sure they have far more knowledge and insight into Government policy then you do.

In 10 years from now, don't look back and say you did not know what was coming, here it is in black and white what the Government is planning to do.

Vested interest or not, what the Government normally wants, it gets one way or another.

If you do buy, get close to a train station, traffic will be a real bitch. I hate Sydney when I lived there for 12 years for that very reason.
Do you think houses will cost 16 times the median income?

Thats what that horsehit report is says.

Kind of discredits the whole thing n'est pas?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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skamy
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Veritas
20 Oct 2014, 01:52 AM
Do you think houses will cost 16 times the median income?

Thats what that horsehit report is says.

Kind of discredits the whole thing n'est pas?
Cities with larger populations have greater price to incomes as lower incomes can no longer afford to buy and live in more crowded accommodation. Plenty of cities have this ratio and some.

The population is set to increase by 1/4 to 2.5m by 2020. That is huge population growth. Lots of big companies are looking for entry to the Perth and WA market as it is pretty clear this place should be prosperous over the next 10 years.

I don't know if you noticed (wearin those shit coloured glasses you buy from macrobusiness you might have missed it) but there has been rather a lot of money invested in this state over the past few years.
Why do you think the ABS has projected such strong growth for Perth?

Look at that map showing how the city is expected to grow inland. When the city has 3.5m people in 20 years time -do you honestly think first time buyers like you will still be able to buy near the beaches an on the riverfront with water views? These will be the most desirable areas.



Edited by skamy, 20 Oct 2014, 03:03 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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newjez
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Mike
19 Oct 2014, 11:03 PM
Ok then, one mistake you say. Time to roll out the quotes again. You have made so many mistakes I have lost count, I will bring out some of your famous ones later on.
Fire away loser. I made a bad call in 2011 when I assumed perth would correct. But it did a dead cat bounce followed by a slow burn. There has been no meaningful growth in the perth market since 2007. Just ask your skamy sock. Whereas according to you, its always been a bit quiet, but its just about to boom. But roll out the quotes mike. Why don't you start with your shit iron ore predictions? Your mate Timmy ran away like a little girl. You won't be here either within a year. Muppet!
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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skamy
20 Oct 2014, 02:53 AM
Cities with larger populations have greater price to incomes as lower incomes can no longer afford to buy and live in more crowded accommodation. Plenty of cities have this ratio and some.

Perth is not London or Sydney and most likely never will be. It is a sprawling city surrounded by nothing. It is a mining town.

Yes it will be ok in the future, but it has distinct disadvantages as a place to do business or make things. Its isolation and distance make it expensive to ship goods into and out of and higher living costs make it hard to keep wages down and competitive.

So we can mine stuff and sell wheat and wine and that is about it. Most of the stuff we make is to support these industries.

We may become a destination of choice for wealthy Asians wishing to have clean air to breathe and I suppose the rest of us could offer ironing and gardening services to them. Maybe you and Mike hold onto that dream so that you can make a tidy profit, but that would not be great for my kids or their kids.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Jimbo
20 Oct 2014, 09:32 AM
Perth is not London or Sydney and most likely never will be. It is a sprawling city surrounded by nothing. It is a mining town.

Yes it will be ok in the future, but it has distinct disadvantages as a place to do business or make things. Its isolation and distance make it expensive to ship goods into and out of and higher living costs make it hard to keep wages down and competitive.

So we can mine stuff and sell wheat and wine and that is about it. Most of the stuff we make is to support these industries.

We may become a destination of choice for wealthy Asians wishing to have clean air to breathe and I suppose the rest of us could offer ironing and gardening services to them. Maybe you and Mike hold onto that dream so that you can make a tidy profit, but that would not be great for my kids or their kids.
What the article is saying is that if we do not get better inner city density then the price to income will grow. Perth inner city houses have huge block sizes, eg Nedlands and Dalkeith etc with their 1000 sqm plus blocks.

Perth will indeed get to the size that Sydney is now and Sydney will get to the size of London. House prices to income will also follow that well trodden path of city growth.

Perth is a great place to live, you, Mike and I all agree on that fact, whether our migration will change dramatically away from large numbers from Britain who enjoy the clean air and wonderful climate is another question.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Veritas
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skamy
20 Oct 2014, 12:34 PM
What the article is saying is that if we do not get better inner city density then the price to income will grow. Perth inner city houses have huge block sizes, eg Nedlands and Dalkeith etc with their 1000 sqm plus blocks.

Perth will indeed get to the size that Sydney is now and Sydney will get to the size of London. House prices to income will also follow that well trodden path of city growth.

Perth is a great place to live, you, Mike and I all agree on that fact, whether our migration will change dramatically away from large numbers from Britain who enjoy the clean air and wonderful climate is another question.
There is nothing well trodden about it at all you fool.

house price to income ratios widened a bit in many countries after financial deregulation in the 1990s, but there is precisely no reason to believe that they are going to widen again.

Even Shadow loves pointing out that house prices are merely tracking income after the structural shift in the 1990s.

Those clowns at City of Perth, by the looks of it, have extrapolated out the rate of change in the ratio between 2000 and today to come up with the absurd notion that house prices will be 16x income.

That is fucking ridiculous.

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Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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