Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
Warning! Inflation is coming!
Topic Started: 14 Oct 2014, 08:58 PM (1,978 Views)
Whale
Unregistered

I hear the spruikers say about houses, “they double every seven years.”

I hear the same thing about financial crises – “no one saw it coming.”

We hear the same thing about every single new “paradigm” –

“The way it is now, is the way its always going to be”.

Here is why this isn’t going to be the case – inflation.

We haven’t had it for, well, a LONG TIME – and people totally forget that its impact over and above everything else is the most detrimental event an economy can endure. Nothing really comes close. Even global warfare is quickly overcome relative to this beast.

But, we have forgotten, it is tamed, it is a new paradigm, it no longer matters – until of course IT DOES.

We need to look forward and BIG. We are stuck repeating the same old adages about mining capex, over investment in housing, inflated stock markets and currency manipulation by feds, reserves and centrals.

What is GOING to happen though ? I can guarantee you of one thing – it wont be staying the same.

I have been warning for almost 6 years now that China would use their Art of War tactics on us and push us into a commodities reliant corner. However PART of that also revolves around INFLATING their currency.

The Chinese have been pegging their currency to the US dollar – in order to diminish that. Now imagine if the Chinese Yuan (like the Japanese yen did after their transition from remedial manufacturer of “Jap Crap” to global powerhouse) – the Chinese will do the same. Imagine a Chinese dollar / Yuan which is twice as strong. Its purchasing power would be astonishing and the global impacts profound – and almost ENTIRELY inflationary on a global scale.

Many would argue that they would not do this as they are exporters – however not if they transition their domestic hukou into a consumer class. The Chinese have the capacity to entirely replace half of the worlds consumers.

Secondly the alignment of the BRICS in challenging the traditional role of World Bank and US reserve is set to radically change the global currency valuations over the next few years. Expect to see radical change on the back of this. Again – inflationary for the west, empowering the emerging nations.

Warfare, both hot and cold, strategic and geographic are ramping up significantly and will build manifestly over the next five years as the US ramps up its transition OUT of the middle east and into Asia. Expect the US to also consolidates its position as an oil exporter and gas exporter as it tries to maintain sovereign dependence on itself of major allies via energy restrictive military and political activities combined with out right warfare.

Again – inflationary.

Europe stimulus is almost a given. Their malaise is worsening not getting better and the general population has had enough of the bull. The blatant corruption via Libor (etc) the nepotism of the state and financial cabal has led to fatigue of the member nations most noticeable in the clamouring of the masses.

Unbounded cash injections into financial institutions, austerity, and everything that occurred in 2009 will not happen again – it will be an inflationary response directly into the pockets of the people.

US taper – Australian Inflation.

Stock market correction will also see money starting to wash back through the economy.

The real paradigm is corporations have infinite amounts of money while the global middle class, citizens, populace are all being squeezed dry – this is the biggest challenge being faced by sovereign governments and has no choice but to be addressed. It simply can not go on.

While governments are acquiescing to the limitless demands of the private sectors wealth requests these are being paid for by consumers in every increasing costs of living coupled with rampant taxation / user pays privatisation and GLOBAL collapsing real wages.

We have just lived through almost two decades of consumer / citizen oppression in the interests of corporate appeasement. It was successful based almost PURELY on the ability of government to allow their citizens unfettered consumption based on housing equity and high employment. None of these conditions are now in play, jobs are being lost hand over fist, and living conditions are being decimated.

It is simply not sustainable in any way shape or form.

The return of real wage rises and increasing standards of living via reduced costs of living is going to be the number one ticket item going forward. Make no mistake about that. And that is going to be incredibly inflationary as governments make ham fisted attempts to appease the voters.
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Whale
14 Oct 2014, 08:58 PM
I hear the spruikers say about houses, “they double every seven years.”
I didn't read past that statement. I've only ever heard bears say that.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
doubleview
Member Avatar


peter fraser
14 Oct 2014, 09:02 PM
I didn't read past that statement. I've only ever heard bears say that.
Your the APF ultimate cock an inbreed if u like, u only read what reflects your blue print, any thing else is blah blah bah !

Vested interest filth like your self deserve the pain you have coming !
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

peter fraser
14 Oct 2014, 09:02 PM
I didn't read past that statement. I've only ever heard bears say that.
I didn't read too far into it either, Peter.

Something I do find fascinating though (on a somewhat unrelated note), is the inflation that took place during the 70's, and the effect it had on household debt.

Nobody knows the future, but do you think a repeat event might be on the cards at some stage?

Thanks
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Guest
14 Oct 2014, 09:26 PM
I didn't read too far into it either, Peter.

Something I do find fascinating though (on a somewhat unrelated note), is the inflation that took place during the 70's, and the effect it had on household debt.

Nobody knows the future, but do you think a repeat event might be on the cards at some stage?

Thanks
Inflation in the seventies was very tough on households. Workers were constantly on strike for higher wages because food and all household purchases went up weekly. It drove a lot of people into hardship, but for those who managed to hang on it effectively reduced their debts at high speed.

Shadow has a chart that shows long term interest rates and the seventies was pretty much unique, so it probably won't happen often but certainly yes it could happen again. All it took was an energy shock and some crazy Arabs.
doubleview
14 Oct 2014, 09:24 PM
Your the APF ultimate cock an inbreed if u like, u only read what reflects your blue print, any thing else is blah blah bah !

Vested interest filth like your self deserve the pain you have coming !
Well I suspect that one of us will feel pain, and it will be self inflicted.

Best of luck.
Edited by peter fraser, 14 Oct 2014, 09:41 PM.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mallard
Default APF Avatar
Thread killer

Whale
14 Oct 2014, 08:58 PM
I hear the spruikers say...

RAMBLINGS

...ham fisted attempts to appease the voters.
Is this really meant to be a carefully constructed, well-argued point with supporting data?

It's just that to me, it looks more like the ravings of a lunatic.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
peter fraser
Member Avatar


Mallard
14 Oct 2014, 09:56 PM
Is this really meant to be a carefully constructed, well-argued point with supporting data?

It's just that to me, it looks more like the ravings of a lunatic.
it's a version of this post.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/10/interest-rates-wont-rise-this-decade/#comment-767509

It is the ravings of a lunatic. You got that right.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
miw
Member Avatar


doubleview
14 Oct 2014, 09:24 PM
Your the APF ultimate cock an inbreed if u like, u only read what reflects your blue print, any thing else is blah blah bah !

Vested interest filth like your self deserve the pain you have coming !
Well, typically if someone starts with a bullshit premise they will get to a bullshit conclusion.

Ironically, if inflation strikes we might get to a place where house prices double in 7 years. In fact at 10% inflation the price of everything doubles every 7 years.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Guest
14 Oct 2014, 09:26 PM
I didn't read too far into it either, Peter.

Something I do find fascinating though (on a somewhat unrelated note), is the inflation that took place during the 70's, and the effect it had on household debt.

Nobody knows the future, but do you think a repeat event might be on the cards at some stage?

Thanks
Inflation is great for household debt. Wages rise, house prices rise and the mortgage stays the same.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
stinkbug
Member Avatar


As someone with a number of assets who bills by the hour, bring it on!
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create a free forum in seconds.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy