+1, theres always going to be people having some difficulty, what shadow should of said is they're having less difficulty now than at any time over the past 5 years, which is what the falling arrears rate really tells us
so while its getting less difficult to pay the mortgage, the difficulty would never fall to zero like shadow suggested
Agree it must be getting less difficult but do you think he really meant the difficulty was zero, or was it just a figure of speech? The pedantry is strong in this thread.
Agree it must be getting less difficult but do you think he really meant the difficulty was zero, or was it just a figure of speech? The pedantry is strong in this thread.
Kulganis is being like someone who is persistently late for work and gets ticked off by the boss who says "everyone else has no difficulty in getting to work on time".
If he complained that the boss had no idea whether everyone had any difficulty or not he would be making a spurious semantic argument. Other people may have more or less problems with their journey to work but they have no difficulty getting there in time.
Just as in this debate people may have loads of problems but they have not yet reached the stage of having difficulty making their payment on time. ie they are not a day late, a week late, or a month late etc.
Belt tightening may be a problem but there are always people in a population having such problems AND if it is increasingly a problem for more people then it will show up in an increase in the number of people having the difficulty under discussion which is - a difficulty making payments on time.
Shadow is correct in his interpretation that those difficulties do not exist for 99.4% of the population, they make their payment on time. ). 0.6% of the population have some difficulty making their payment on time, they are either late or they default.
Kulganis distraction was to add his own made up selective idea of difficulty by talking about other problems that people may face.
He seems to want people to believe that there could be loads of people with all these terrible problems without the delinquency measure changing and this is where I called him out. All of those problems he raised would show up in an increase in the numbers of people having difficulty in paying on time.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Agree it must be getting less difficult but do you think he really meant the difficulty was zero, or was it just a figure of speech? The pedantry is strong in this thread.
Pedantry and nitpicking are what this forum is built on. Each post is like a contract that can be prodded and poked.
Collecting desperation. Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Kulganis is being like someone who is persistently late for work and gets ticked off by the boss who says "everyone else has no difficulty in getting to work on time".
What a strange accusation. I don't understand the wild accusative attacks from you in this thread, I haven't been impolite, I've only said people were wrong, that's it, no name calling, no odd comparisons.
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If he complained that the boss had no idea whether everyone had any difficulty or not he would be making a spurious semantic argument. Other people may have more or less problems with their journey to work but they have no difficulty getting there in time.
The boss in this story is you? Or is it Shadow? As far as I'm concerned, the boss is APRA, we're just all workers standing around a watercooler. Way back in your first objection to my post, you said...
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So the statistic does tell us that current mortgage holders are not having any significant difficulties paying their loans.
You limited yourself, I realise the word significant changes a few things, but you did reinterpret Shadows words, which is all I was arguing about. And then...
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In fact they are having less difficulties than they had a few years ago and very much less difficulty than people in many other countries.
Well no, to promptly announce that 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording these homes, that would require more information. Especially against other countries, you added another declaration without more information.
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Just as in this debate people may have loads of problems but they have not yet reached the stage of having difficulty making their payment on time. ie they are not a day late, a week late, or a month late etc.
Belt tightening may be a problem but there are always people in a population having such problems AND if it is increasingly a problem for more people then it will show up in an increase in the number of people having the difficulty under discussion which is - a difficulty making payments on time.
This single chart, of which was my only concern, since it appeared to be the only concern for Shadow, is a single tool, in a large toolkit of measures and shouldn't be taken alone to provide enough confidence to make the statement...
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So 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording these homes
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Shadow is correct in his interpretation that those difficulties do not exist for 99.4% of the population, they make their payment on time. ). 0.6% of the population have some difficulty making their payment on time, they are either late or they default.
Shadow did not say this.
Shadow did not bring up any specific details on what difficulties were, there was no discussion about how many of the people who are up to date with their mortgages were feeling stressed or having difficulty paying their mortgage. There is not enough information in Shadows post to make the statement Shadow made.
Shadow said...
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Housing loan arrears at around 0.6% and falling. So 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording these homes that the bears claim are unaffordable. And the bears also claim it would be preferable if the banks lent less to housing and more to businesses, which are defaulting at three times the rate of homeowners.
You have completely changed the meaning of the paragraph.
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Kulganis distraction was to add his own made up selective idea of difficulty by talking about other problems that people may face.
My distraction is your ability to seemingly ignore sentences, make up your own and present them as the arguments of other people.
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He seems to want people to believe that there could be loads of people with all these terrible problems without the delinquency measure changing and this is where I called him out. All of those problems he raised would show up in an increase in the numbers of people having difficulty in paying on time.
They would show up if people stop paying the mortgage, if more people are doing it tougher, but are still keeping up with the mortgage, paying it, but only just surviving, it would't automatically mean the delinquency rate changes, yes, it's likely that more people would start to default on their loans, but it's not guaranteed. Not enough to make the resounding declaration that Shadow did.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
to promptly announce that 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording these homes, that would require more information
Kulganis arrives late to work again.
Boss: You're late again. Nobody else has any difficulty getting here on time! Kulganis: <Chortles> Now listen here old boy, to promptly announce that nobody is having any difficulty, that would require more information, haw haw waffle waffle nitpick nitpick Boss: You're fired!
Looks like you've got more to enjoy. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
Such childish responses to a simple point on an argument made. It's sad that these are apparently the best they could come up with.
I'm not being pedantic, if I was, I would point out that sometimes Skamy types with two spaces behind periods. Now that's a minor detail.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
They would show up if people stop paying the mortgage, if more people are doing it tougher, but are still keeping up with the mortgage, paying it, but only just surviving, it would't automatically mean the delinquency rate changes, yes, it's likely that more people would start to default on their loans, but it's not guaranteed..............................................
When you have a large group ie the populations researched for these ABS statistics, the people in them will largely follow a close approximation to a standard distribution. It will include people at all levels of problems with their payments some will be years ahead and some will have to tighten their belts to pay.
If there is stress added to the population then there will be less people managing to get well ahead and more people belt tightening and more people defaulting. Why ? because at any given time a certain number of people will be teetering over into a new band eg delinquency where they just have no further ability to help them pay their mortgage ie credit cards maxed out etc.
The ability of people to fend of delinquency will be shown in the shape of the distribution tall and skinny or short and broad, it may even have a skew. But it will always be approximately the same if the population is large enough.
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I'm not being pedantic, if I was, I would point out that sometimes Skamy types with two spaces behind periods. Now that's a minor detail.
I am certainly not one to ever mind someone being pedantic, I have a terrible reputation for that myself. Now I am hearing something new - don't people use double spacing after a period anymore? I have spent a lifetime publishing and I was taught at an early age to use two spaces after a period. It was standard for all the big journals in my day. It has been a few years since I have published anything, has that changed now? I checked out wiki and apparently there is still some debate on it. It would be a terrible difficulty for me to change at this grand old age of mine, but if indeed it is very old fashioned then I will make the effort to move with the times.
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James Felici, author of the Complete Manual of Typography, says that the topic of sentence spacing is "the debate that refuses to die ... In all my years of writing about type, it's still the question I hear most often, and a search of the web will find threads galore on the subject".[4] This subject is still widely debated today.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Kulganis and Skamy, you're both right! Denis Law played for Manchester United AND Manchester City.
and he was a Scotsman to boot.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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