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RBA Chart Pack October 2014
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2014, 03:44 PM (4,695 Views)
Trev
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No, it isn't. Some dams will fill up more, some less, some none at all, because it doesn't rain evenly over the entire catchment.
I'm usure if you're being deliberately obtuse because you don't want to admit you're wrong, or if you really didn't get it.

Kulganis
12 Oct 2014, 07:29 PM
both of you are arguing that more people becoming stressed cause the most stressed to become delinquent, which is patently absurd
Neither of us are arguing that and if you can't get your head around our actual argument (after it being explained at least four times) there's little point continuing here. Good luck mate.
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Kulganis
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Trev
12 Oct 2014, 07:34 PM
I'm usure if you're being deliberately obtuse because you don't want to admit you're wrong, or if you really didn't get it.
I don't think you understand what I'm arguing...

The chart only tells us how many people are up to date with their mortgage, and how many people aren't. It doesn't tell us how many people who are up to date are finding it difficult to pay their mortgage, you would have to bring in other statistics to make that determination.

Quote:
 
Neither of us are arguing that and if you can't get your head around our actual argument (after it being explained at least four times) there's little point continuing here. Good luck mate.
You did...

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if the number of people in stress was rising then you'd expect delinquencies to rise too, as those who were already close to delinquency get pushed over the edge.
Who's pushing the already stressed over the edge? Can there not be more stressed mortgages without people going over the edge? Is there a finite amount of mortgages who can be finding it difficult?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Trev
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Mate, theres no getting through to ya, carry on!
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skamy
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Kulganis
12 Oct 2014, 05:41 PM
You are labouring under a false impression, the RBA Mortgage Delinquency chart comes from APRA, they don't use sample surveys to find statistics on mortgages that are 90 days overdue, they have absolute numbers.

APRA knows how many mortgages are more than 90 days overdue, they don't need to do what the ABS does to measure employment for instance.

So it isn't a population distribution, it is simply, mortgages that are more than 90 days overdue.

If unemployment rises and people start defaulting on their mortgages, you are correct, they will show up in the delinquency figures. But if they find other ways to pay off their mortgage, you would be none the wiser, does that mean they're not stressed?
But the measure we're talking about doesn't measure stress, it measures delinquency. As in, it measures how many mortgages are more than 90 days overdue, it doesn't measure how hard people have to work to keep their mortgage up to date.
Again you are just wrong again you fail to understand - You trying to say that a population is not normal because real data is gathered not a survey? So if we measure the number of people with extremely big feet by collecting data from the shoe shop instead of a survey all of a sudden feet sizes are not normally distributed anymore??????????????



Delinquency levels exist among a population distribution of mortgage payers that is assumed to exist in a normally distributed population. Across the population you could chose any number of statistics which will move with increasing mortgage stress. Delinquency levels in one such measure.

What you are trying to say is that the movement to higher delinquency may follow a certain rate as there is slack in the market , you fail to recognize that this also is accounted for. The path to delinquency is always the same for everyone, everyone will do all they can to avoid it (excepting idiots). So at any given moment in time you have people at maximum belt tightening ready to teeter over.

For your fantasy of a new world where increasing mortgage stress does not show up in the delinquency rates, you would need some external factor such as an extra generous tooth fairy or leprechauns leaving pots of gold in the gardens of stressed home owners.







trevor
12 Oct 2014, 05:43 PM
Sorry mate but Skamy is 100% correct. If stress levels were rising or people were having increased difficulty servicing their loans, then delinquencies would also be rising, not falling. Statistics 101.
Thx Trevor, I don't know if he really does not understand or if he is digging holes and throwing mud to save face.
Edited by skamy, 12 Oct 2014, 08:04 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Kulganis
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skamy
12 Oct 2014, 08:02 PM
Again you are just wrong again you fail to understand - You trying to say that a population is not normal because real data is gathered not a survey? So if we measure the number of people with extremely big feet by collecting data from the shoe shop instead of a survey all of a sudden feet sizes are not normally distributed anymore??????????????

Delinquency levels exist among a population distribution of mortgage payers that is assumed to exist in a normally distributed population. Across the population you could chose any number of statistics which will move with increasing mortgage stress. Delinquency levels in one such measure.

What you are trying to say is that the movement to higher delinquency may follow a certain rate as there is slack in the market , you fail to recognize that this also is accounted for. The path to delinquency is always the same for everyone, everyone will do all they can to avoid it (excepting idiots). So at any given moment in time you have people at maximum belt tightening ready to teeter over.

For your fantasy of a new world where increasing mortgage stress does not show up in the delinquency rates, you would need some external factor such as an extra generous tooth fairy or leprechauns leaving pots of gold in the gardens of stressed home owners.
Nothing about the normality of a population.

APRA have precise numbers, they aren't making estimations.

The chart literally shows 99.4% of mortgages are up to date, 0.6% are more than 90 days overdue. That's it, nothing else.

It doesn't tell us anything about the level of difficulty the 99.4% of mortgage holders who are up to date, find in paying their mortgage.

If you want to include other information, that's fine, but simply using a chart that has nothing, whatsoever to do with difficulty in paying mortgages, to show that people aren't having difficulty in paying their mortgages, is daft.

Quote:
 
you fail to recognize that this also is accounted for.
It isn't, not in that chart, and it's only the use of that single chart (in total isolation) that I have a problem with.
Edited by Kulganis, 12 Oct 2014, 08:17 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Kulganis
12 Oct 2014, 11:04 AM
Yes, I apologise, I was wrong. I still haven't gotten my brain to convert the word 'people' to 'household'.
You're also wrong about the arrears rate, it would definitely rise if mortgage stress rose. The reason the delinquency rate is falling is because mortgage stress is easing due to lower interest rates. This is beyond dispute.
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Kulganis
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skamy
12 Oct 2014, 08:02 PM
Thx Trevor, I don't know if he really does not understand or if he is digging holes and throwing mud to save face.
I haven't called anyone in this thread a moron yet, I can't see any mud slinging.
Guest
12 Oct 2014, 08:13 PM
You're also wrong about the arrears rate, it would definitely rise if mortgage stress rose. The reason the delinquency rate is falling is because mortgage stress is easing due to lower interest rates. This is beyond dispute.
Well, no, you would expect it to, but that doesn't mean that it will.

Same as, the reasons the delinquency rate is falling, yes, you would expect that it's because mortgage stress is also falling, but it doesn't have to and it's not the only reason.

All I'm saying is that we cannot read into a chart that only says - 99.4% of mortgages are up to date - anything more than, 99.4% of mortgages are up to date. Without using other information.
Shadow
10 Oct 2014, 06:18 PM
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Housing loan arrears at around 0.6% and falling. So 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording these homes that the bears claim are unaffordable. And the bears also claim it would be preferable if the banks lent less to housing and more to businesses, which are defaulting at three times the rate of homeowners. :wak:
This is the entirety of the post I have issues with.

The chart shows delinquency rates, it doesn't show difficulty, or stress, or anything other than "99.4% of mortgages are up to date".

If you want to then claim that 99.4% of people are not having any difficulty affording homes, you need to include other information, because the chart does not, in any way, show difficulty in paying mortgages, other than some people are not paying their loans.

And there could be any number of reasons, apart from difficulty or affordability, that those 0.6% of mortgages are overdue. The chart doesn't show that either. Again, you would need to include more information.
Edited by Kulganis, 12 Oct 2014, 08:43 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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Mallard
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Thread killer

This is a long and tedious thread but I think Kulganis was right on the first page where he said that shadow was wrong to say that 99.4pc of people were "not having any difficulty" paying their mortgages.

Everything else has been internet bickering.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Kulganis
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Mallard
12 Oct 2014, 08:47 PM
This is a long and tedious thread but I think Kulganis was right on the first page where he said that shadow was wrong to say that 99.4pc of people were "not having any difficulty" paying their mortgages.

Everything else has been internet bickering.
I had a lot of fun though.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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IQ199
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Mallard
12 Oct 2014, 08:47 PM
shadow was wrong to say that 99.4pc of people were "not having any difficulty" paying their mortgages
+1, theres always going to be people having some difficulty, what shadow should of said is they're having less difficulty now than at any time over the past 5 years, which is what the falling arrears rate really tells us

so while its getting less difficult to pay the mortgage, the difficulty would never fall to zero like shadow suggested
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