Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
RBA Chart Pack October 2014
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2014, 03:44 PM (4,697 Views)
skamy
Member Avatar


Kulganis
11 Oct 2014, 07:30 PM
Do you live in some uber crazy world where up is down and red is green?

Posted Image

The only significant downturn I see is in mining. Everything else is either steady, or slightly rising. Apart from manufacturing, which has been slowly declining over the years.



OK at least you have now stopped arguing black is white on non performing assets. Clearly you are still denying reality, you may fool some of the dumb posters on here but anyone with a tertiary education can see your mistake that you are refusing to acknowledge as per usual.


With regards to the graph you showed you should notice that this is relative growth so although mining grew significantly, it still only reached 2% of the workforce. You can clearly see that the large employers eg construction (9% and retail (14.3%) have fallen and/or stagnated since 2007 despite the continued growth in population.

The residential construction boom is just starting Kulganis, 52,000 new homes in NSW alone approved this year, is it really so hard for you to see how this can impact employment statistics.

Edited by skamy, 11 Oct 2014, 07:56 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Kulganis
Member Avatar


skamy
11 Oct 2014, 07:53 PM
OK at least you have now stopped arguing black is white on non performing assets.

Well, I haven't, because you're still trying to pull the wool over the eyes of others.

Quote:
 
With regards to the graph you showed you should notice that this is relative growth so although mining grew significantly, it still only reached 2% of the workforce. You can clearly see that the large employers eg construction (9% and retail (14.3%) have fallen and/or stagnated since 2007 despite the continued growth in population.
But you said...
Quote:
 
Yes a lot of retail staff lost their jobs and lots of home builders went bust and their employees lost their jobs.
Which isn't true, job figures haven't changed for most of construction or retail.

Quote:
 
The residential construction boom is just starting Kulganis, 52,000 new homes in NSW alone approved this year, is it really so hard for you to see how this can impact employment statistics.
But the jobs, as I've just shown, weren't lost, are you expecting even more jobs to be created even though we don't need them? A business isn't going to employee unneeded staff.

And I've just done some quick calculations on the building approvals data at the ABS (Link to .xls file), there have only been 17,141 more approvals this year than last year (for the entire country), your 52,000 figure is obfuscation.
Edited by Kulganis, 11 Oct 2014, 08:09 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Kulganis
11 Oct 2014, 07:59 PM
Well, I haven't, because you're still trying to pull the wool over the eyes of others.


But you said...

Which isn't true, job figures haven't changed for most of construction or retail.


But the jobs, as I've just shown, weren't lost, are you expecting even more jobs to be created even though we don't need them? A business isn't going to employee unneeded staff.
You do not understand statistics, Kulganis and I know from experience you will continue to argue back is white until the cows come home as you are afraid to fess up and learn something like the rest of the smart posters on here.

Anyone who is genuinely interested can read my previous posts and see your errors of understanding. I am not going to waste my time with you when you close your mind and act like a child.

The fact is that the non performing assets measure will respond in a predictable fashion if there is an increase or decrease in the numbers having to tighten their belts and you are just being a silly denying it. You are not understanding probability distributions if you believe otherwise.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Kulganis
Member Avatar


skamy
11 Oct 2014, 08:10 PM
You do not understand statistics, Kulganis and I know from experience you will continue to argue back is white until the cows come home as you are afraid to fess up and learn something like the rest of the smart posters on here.
I'm not talking about statistics, I'm talking about a chart that shows delinquency rates, not difficulty rates. That you and Shadow seem to think delinquency means difficulty, when it doesn't.

Quote:
 
Anyone who is genuinely interested can read my previous posts and see your errors of understanding. I am not going to waste my time with you when you close your mind and act like a child.
I can see where you're coming from, you're wrong, but I can see it. This isn't a game about probability. I'm simply saying, that 99.4% of mortgages are up to date.

99% of up to date mortgage holders could be having difficulty paying their mortgage, but they're still paying them, we don't know, because the chart doesn't say anything about difficulty, only delinquency.

Quote:
 
The fact is that the non performing assets measure will respond in a predictable fashion if there is an increase or decrease in the numbers having to tighten their belts and you are just being a silly denying it. You are not understanding probability distributions if you believe otherwise.
Is this like job growth measures that respond in a predictable way?
Edited by Kulganis, 11 Oct 2014, 08:31 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Veritas
Default APF Avatar


Guest
11 Oct 2014, 07:03 PM
The idea that 1/3 of your income on housing places you under "stress" when the other 2/3's amounts to over 50k for most people, is a crock of shit.

If it really was a problem why is the rate of bad loans in Australia tiny? You keep tell us you have the answers veritas but your working is all wrong. It's like listening to someone claim they can count to potato so the number is pineapple.
Who the fuck are you?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Kulganis
Member Avatar


Guest
11 Oct 2014, 07:03 PM
The idea that 1/3 of your income on housing places you under "stress" when the other 2/3's amounts to over 50k for most people, is a crock of shit.
The Australian average wage for 2014 is $58,390.80 gross, after tax, that comes to $46,823.12, how can most people have over $50,000 after paying for housing when they have less than that before paying for housing?
Edited by Kulganis, 11 Oct 2014, 10:03 PM.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Mallard
Default APF Avatar
Thread killer

Kulganis
11 Oct 2014, 09:54 PM
The Australian average wage for 2014 is $58,390.80 gross, after tax, that comes to $46,823.12, how can most people have over $50,000 after paying for housing when they have less than that before paying for housing?
ABS 4130.0 says that the median weekly housing cost of home owners with a mortgage in 2011-2 was $406 which was 19% of median gross household income which implies a total median household income for mortgagees of $111,000.

Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Kulganis
Member Avatar


Mallard
11 Oct 2014, 11:20 PM
ABS 4130.0 says that the median weekly housing cost of home owners with a mortgage in 2011-2 was $406 which was 19% of median gross household income which implies a total median household income for mortgagees of $111,000.
Yes, I apologise, I was wrong. I still haven't gotten my brain to convert the word 'people' to 'household'.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Kulganis
12 Oct 2014, 11:04 AM
Yes, I apologise, I was wrong. I still haven't gotten my brain to convert the word 'people' to 'household'.
I nearly spilled me cuppa

Posted Image
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Kulganis
Member Avatar


skamy
12 Oct 2014, 04:09 PM
I nearly spilled me cuppa
Unfortunately, I wasn't apologising to you, you're still wrong.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry

"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Create your own social network with a free forum.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy