Obviously not too difficult to prevent over 99% from being able to do it, Einstein.
Again, missed the point.
I'm not saying that people are having a difficult time paying their mortgage. I'm saying that you, Shadow or anyone else can't infer that they're not having a difficult time paying their mortgage based on the information in the chart.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
How does past home sales affect future employment prospects?
The houses are sold ready to be built. There is a housing construction boom already to kick off in most major cities in Australia.
Residential construction employs a lot of people and is a nice fillip for retail, whitegoods, tiles, pavers, carpets, aircons etc etc.
My question is: Knowing that all these new jobs will be created, do people still really believe there will be any significant rise of unemployment?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
The houses are sold ready to be built. There is a housing construction boom already to kick off in most major cities in Australia.
Residential construction employs a lot of people and is a nice fillip for retail, whitegoods, tiles, pavers, carpets, aircons etc etc.
My question is: Knowing that all these new jobs will be created, do people still really believe there will be any significant rise of unemployment?
Have we somehow lost all the employees that did all this in the past? Why must new jobs be created if we already have heaps of air conditioner technicians?
Whitegoods are made overseas and the retail staff that sell them, usually sell other things too, did they all get fired in the past decade or something?
And then, after this supposed construction boom is over, what do we do? Make another construction boom? So it's construction booms all the way down?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
99.4% of people are paying the bank, not that they're having no difficulty doing so. They might be using their entire take home pay to pay it off, and putting everything else on a credit card and paying that credit card off with another credit card.
You can't infer anything from the chart other than, people are paying off their property debt, they might be eating twice a week to do it, but they're paying it off. They could be having gourmet lobster every night for that matter, but the chart doesn't say anything about difficulty.
You are wrong here Kulganis as you think this is a semantics game, it is not, it is a statistics game. The delinquency rates and non performing assets are stress indicators and they do in fact work very well for this purpose.
Historically, Australia has had 0.5-0.6% for non performing loans throughout its long term stable years. When there was stress in the economy there was a tick up in rates eg in 2009 and during the 1990s crash. Over the past few years, the US has seen rates up to 6% and the UK and Spain 3% .
If there was any increase in the numbers of people having difficulty paying their home loans it would show in this figure, as more people get pushed over the delinquency periods monitored.
So the statistic does tell us that current mortgage holders are not having any significant difficulties paying their loans. In fact they are having less difficulties than they had a few years ago and very much less difficulty than people in many other countries.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
ALMOST two-thirds of homeowners with a mortgage are struggling to make ends meet, a major survey has revealed.
The WA Speaks poll found 61 per cent of respondents with a home loan were facing housing stress – a situation in which the cost of a mortgage is more than one-third of disposable income.
Families told The Sunday Times this week times are so tough they now consider steak a “luxury item” and the state has become “unlivable”.
One-in-five people with a home loan said they “couldn’t handle it” if interest rates went up. They said they would have to consider a second job or downgrading their home.
The survey of more than 6000 people was conducted by The Sunday Times and Nine News.
How much more debt do you think FTBs can take on Skamy? Interest rates cannot go much lower.
What then?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
You are wrong here Kulganis as you think this is a semantics game, it is not, it is a statistics game. The delinquency rates and non performing assets are stress indicators and they do in fact work very well for this purpose.
Historically, Australia has had 0.5-0.6% for non performing loans throughout its long term stable years. When there was stress in the economy there was a tick up in rates eg in 2009 and during the 1990s crash. Over the past few years, the US has seen rates up to 6% and the UK and Spain 3%.
It's not a game at all, believe me, I know games.
The chart show the proportion of loans that are more than 90 days overdue, those people aren't having difficulty paying their loans, they're not paying their loans. They might begin to pay again in the future, but I can't infer that from the chart.
It also doesn't show how much their delinquency is, so a person who has $1 overdue, is counted in the same group that have $80,000 overdue or $800,000 overdue.
It doesn't show that the rest are not having difficulty paying their loans, just that they've sacrificed (or not, because the chart doesn't say either way) enough to be up to date with their mortgage.
Quote:
If there was any increase in the numbers of people having difficulty paying their home loans it would show in this figure, as more people get pushed over the delinquency periods monitored.
Oh it would, would it? What happens if people change their spending habits, reduce their standard of living to pay off their mega mortgage or pay their entire wage into the mortgage, and put everything else on a credit card?
Quote:
So the statistic does tell us that current mortgage holders are not having any significant difficulties paying their loans. In fact they are having less difficulties than they had a few years ago and very much less difficulty than people in many other countries.
No, it doesn't, it tells us that 99.4% of mortgages are up to date, nothing else.
If you want to make unfounded conclusions, fine, but say that they're unfounded conclusions. Don't pretend the chart tells you things that it doesn't.
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
Have we somehow lost all the employees that did all this in the past? Why must new jobs be created if we already have heaps of air conditioner technicians?
Whitegoods are made overseas and the retail staff that sell them, usually sell other things too, did they all get fired in the past decade or something?
And then, after this supposed construction boom is over, what do we do? Make another construction boom? So it's construction booms all the way down?
In case you have not noticed, but there has been a significant downturn in these sectors for several years, there was some pretty big spikes in unemployment due to this. Yes a lot of retail staff lost their jobs and lots of home builders went bust and their employees lost their jobs.
Quote:
NSW Housing approvals are at their highest level since 2000, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with more than 52,000 approvals made in the past 12 months.
Who knows what will create employment long term into the future? However because of the downturn there is now a backlog and this will impact employment figures no doubt about it.
It would be much better if the economy just ticked along building homes as they are needed. However, that is just not what happened.
Veritas
11 Oct 2014, 06:29 PM
And that's with IRs at 60 year lows.
How much more debt do you think FTBs can take on Skamy? Interest rates cannot go much lower.
What then?
The facts contradict this emotional unstructured non-evidence based survey.
Anyone who took on a mortgage a few years ago will be paying much less due to lower interest rates and this graph from the RBA shows that new mortgage repayments are at low levels compared to the past.
I do agree that the cost of food and utilities are high in WA. The cost of housing however, is significantly less that Sydney and most other places I have lived. The size of homes, and the number of homes in great locations, close to the ocean, city and the riverfront, that are reasonably priced would be the envy of most people in other cities.
The fact is that many other countries have real problems, they have high levels of non-performing assets and have much higher debt and have much lower savings and assets to their names. Articles like yours are actually quite disturbing in the contributors lack of appreciation for how lucky they are compared to most global citizens.
Kulganis
11 Oct 2014, 06:42 PM
It's not a game at all, believe me, I know games.
The chart show the proportion of loans that are more than 90 days overdue, those people aren't having difficulty paying their loans, they're not paying their loans. They might begin to pay again in the future, but I can't infer that from the chart.
It also doesn't show how much their delinquency is, so a person who has $1 overdue, is counted in the same group that have $80,000 overdue or $800,000 overdue.
It doesn't show that the rest are not having difficulty paying their loans, just that they've sacrificed (or not, because the chart doesn't say either way) enough to be up to date with their mortgage.
Oh it would, would it? What happens if people change their spending habits, reduce their standard of living to pay off their mega mortgage or pay their entire wage into the mortgage, and put everything else on a credit card?
No, it doesn't, it tells us that 99.4% of mortgages are up to date, nothing else.
If you want to make unfounded conclusions, fine, but say that they're unfounded conclusions. Don't pretend the chart tells you things that it doesn't.
Kulganis you are wrong and you know it. You are trying to say that a statistic designed to show mortgage stress does not show mortgage stress and you are wrong full stop. It is a well regarded measure that has been used throughout the world to monitor for housing stress for a long time and it works.
You are failing to understand probabilities in a sample population. There will always be people in each of the categories you described , eg those who become borderline on their ability to repay due to less hrs work or job loss, those who are a dollar overdue and those who are a year behind, those who are sacrificing other things to pay their loans . When you have a large sample, if there is an increase in difficulty of payment then more people will drift into the non performing definitions.
None of the ABS statistics designed to monitor the economy show any problems at all. I can assure you that it is a fantasy to believe in people struggling with their mortgages when a little bit of common sense will tell you that the vast majority of homeowners are paying far less than they ever expected to pay at the moment.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
How much more debt do you think FTBs can take on Skamy? Interest rates cannot go much lower.
What then?
The idea that 1/3 of your income on housing places you under "stress" when the other 2/3's amounts to over 50k for most people, is a crock of shit.
If it really was a problem why is the rate of bad loans in Australia tiny? You keep tell us you have the answers veritas but your working is all wrong. It's like listening to someone claim they can count to potato so the number is pineapple.
In case you have not noticed, but there has been a significant downturn in these sectors for several years, there was some pretty big spikes in unemployment due to this. Yes a lot of retail staff lost their jobs and lots of home builders went bust and their employees lost their jobs.
Do you live in some uber crazy world where up is down and red is green?
The only significant downturn I see is in mining. Everything else is either steady, or slightly rising. Apart from manufacturing, which has been slowly declining over the years.
skamy
11 Oct 2014, 06:51 PM
Kulganis you are wrong and you know it. You are trying to say that a statistic designed to show mortgage stress does not show mortgage stress and you are wrong full stop. It is a well regarded measure that has been used throughout the world to monitor for housing stress for a long time and it works.
No, you are wrong and I know it.
I am saying, that the statistic doesn't show mortgage difficulty, it show mortgage delinquency. That is, not the people who are battling to pay their mortgage, but those who are failing to pay their mortgage.
To suggest otherwise is madness.
Quote:
You are failing to understand probabilities in a sample population. There will always be people in each of the categories you described , eg those who become borderline on their ability to repay due to less hrs work or job loss, those who are a dollar overdue and those who are a year behind, those who are sacrificing other things to pay their loans . When you have a large sample, if there is an increase in difficulty of payment then more people will drift into the non performing definitions.
No, you're failing to see what I'm saying, I'm sorry that your reading comprehension is failing you, but there's nothing I can do about that.
Quote:
None of the ABS statistics designed to monitor the economy show any problems at all. I can assure you that it is a fantasy to believe in people struggling with their mortgages when a little bit of common sense will tell you that the vast majority of homeowners are paying far less than they ever expected to pay at the moment.
What, like the ABS figures on job growth? The ones where they had to change their reporting methods (that they've used for decades) because what was reported didn't make sense?
"If man is to survive, he will have learned to take a delight in the essential differences between men and between cultures. He will learn that differences in ideas and attitudes are a delight, part of life's exciting variety, not something to fear." - Gene Roddenberry
"Balloon animals are a great way to teach children that the things they love dearly, may spontaneously explode" -- Lee Camp
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